862-864 33rd Ave · San Francisco, CA 94121

$1,695,000

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,714 sqft · MultiFamily · 10 Days on market

Built 1924 Good condition 2,996 sqft lot $456/sqft · 9% below area Est $1855k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Set on an expansive 2,996 sq. ft. lot, the property features three thoughtfully designed units with an attractive blend of tenant stability and immediate move-in flexibility. The vacant upper unit (#862) offers approximately 1,429 sq. ft. of bright living space with 2 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms, while the middle unit (#864) is occupied by reliable long-term tenants and features 2 bedrooms, 1.5 bathrooms, and approximately 1,359 sq. ft. The vacant lower unit (#862 1/2) provides an additional 1 bedroom, 1 full bathroom, and approximately 687 sq. ft. —perfect for supplemental rental income, a guest suite, home office, or extended family accommodations. The location is truly what sets thi

Key facts

• Expansive lot
• Vacant lower unit
• Vacant upper unit

Tags

• EXPANSIVE LOT
• THREE UNITS
• VACANT UPPER UNIT
• VACANT LOWER UNIT
• ACROSS FROM GOLDEN GATE PARK
• SPACIOUS SHARED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: 3 total units

Exterior

• Parking: 1 total parking space; Attached garage; Garage faces front; Remote-controlled garage; Street parking available
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential income property; Triplex; Built in 1924
• Construction: Stucco construction; Built in 1924
• Exterior features: Back yard; Rectangular lot; Fenced yard with wood fencing

Interior

• Flooring: Hardwood throughout; Laminate; Linoleum; Tile
• Bathrooms: Unit 1 has 1.5 bathrooms; Unit 2 has 1.5 bathrooms; Unit 3 has 1 bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Zoned heating; Wall furnace; No air conditioning
• Interior features: Storage; Fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer and Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath multifamily listed at $1.70M. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.54M (9.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.35M (20.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.35M (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+13.0%/yr); 74 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $13,488/mo this rent would consume 121% of the median local household income ($133k/yr) (locally 2072% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $12k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $51k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1924 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $1,348,800 (20.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1924 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.68%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,854,612
• List price: $1,695,000
• Delta: -8.61%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5414-5416 Fulton St	0.14mi	5/3.0	3,465 (-7%)	12mo	$1,680,000	$485	68
2901 Cabrillo St	0.16mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,352 (-10%)	9mo	$1,700,000	$507	64
858-860 26th Ave	0.41mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,734 (+0%)	19mo	$2,074,000	$555	59
529-531 37th Ave	0.50mi	6/5.0 (+1)	3,641 (-2%)	8mo	$1,800,000	$494	58
779-781 24th Ave	0.51mi	4/2.0 (-1)	3,600 (-3%)	2mo	$2,100,000	$583	57
422-424 34th Ave	0.57mi	6/3.0 (+1)	3,732 (+0%)	9mo	$1,550,000	$415	56
874 27th Ave	0.35mi	4/2.0 (-1)	3,290 (-11%)	2mo	$2,600,000	$790	49
2929 Clement St	0.60mi	6/4.0 (+1)	3,440 (-7%)	11mo	$1,650,000	$480	45
423-425 33rd Ave	0.57mi	6/3.0 (+1)	3,837 (+3%)	21mo	$1,950,000	$508	41
4526-4528 Fulton St	0.66mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,564 (-4%)	20mo	$2,100,000	$589	41
735-737 20th Ave	0.73mi	4/5.0 (-1)	3,350 (-10%)	19mo	$2,500,000	$746	25
5038 Anza St	0.63mi	6/— (+1)	3,170 (-15%)	21mo	$1,700,000	$536	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-270,578
• Equity at exit: $252,730

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $2,852
• Equity at exit: $146,553

Cash invested: $474,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City San Francisco: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+57

SF Rent Ordinance + Eviction Protections; relocation $10k+; one of strictest in US.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94121

• Rents YoY: 13.0%
• Active inventory: 74
• Price-to-rent: 30.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $13,488 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,889
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$2,119 /mo · $25,425/yr
• Insurance: −$706
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,832
• Net cashflow: $-1,058

Break-even live

Break-even rent $14,828

Max offer price $1,541,870

Occupancy floor —

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1.5	$9,336
1× unit	1	1	$4,152
Total (3 units)			$13,488

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $423,750
• Closing costs: $50,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-12
   listed $1,695,000 Active 1761-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥74°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $161,856
• − Mortgage interest: −$94,946
• − Property taxes: −$25,425
• − Insurance: −$8,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$12,948
• − Management: −$12,948
• − Depreciation: −$49,309
• Taxable loss: −$42,196
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$10,127
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,572/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

The property is in good condition with cosmetic updates needed to enhance its value. The interior walls and kitchen cabinets require freshening up, while the bathrooms need a vanity replacement. The exterior is well-maintained, and the location is attractive.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Aesthetic update needed to modernize the space
• Minor Bathroom vanity — Clean and freshen up to improve aesthetics

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls and trim — Fresh paint can improve the overall appearance and value of the property
• Both Replace kitchen cabinets — Modernizing the kitchen can significantly increase the property's value
• Both Replace bathroom vanity — Updating the bathroom vanity can improve the property's value and appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Aesthetic update needed to modernize the space	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom vanity · Clean and freshen up to improve aesthetics	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls and trim — Fresh paint can improve the overall appearance and value of the property ↑
• Both Replace kitchen cabinets — Modernizing the kitchen can significantly increase the property's value ↑
• Both Replace bathroom vanity — Updating the bathroom vanity can improve the property's value and appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Francisco Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634410
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $81,249
• Composite: 50.14/100
• National rank: #4088
• State rank: #322 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Francisco

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3143

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Francisco, CA
• County: San Francisco County · 827,552 people
• City population: 827,552
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 41,995
• Household income: $133,358
• Rent vs Own: 56.1% rent · 43.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2072.0

Population outlook (San Francisco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,030,936 people
• By 2030: 1,110,409 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 1,270,010 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 1,435,001 · +39.2%
• By 2075: 1,779,074 · +72.6%
• By 2100: 1,966,767 · +90.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 42% White 41% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 35% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Chinese 22% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · San Francisco

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 80.3% · R 15.5% · Other 4.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.7pp toward R · 2008: 70.5pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+72.5 2016: D+76.1 2012: D+70.2 2008: D+70.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1078.57%
• Current HPI: 266.5786
• Rent YoY: ▲ 13.03%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-05-12 Listed $1,695,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR