216 Lowell Rd · Champlin, MN 55316

$399,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,873 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1975 0.30 ac lot $139/sqft · 11% below area Est $501k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Proudly offered for the first time since 1975, this original owner home is ready for its next chapter. Featuring 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and over 3,500 finished square feet, this spacious split level offers room to grow, gather, and enjoy. The thoughtful layout includes multiple living areas and is set on a beautiful 0.30 acre lot overlooking Mill Pond, you’ll love the peaceful setting and scenic views right from your backyard. The attached garage provides ample space for parking, storage, and a workshop area. A rare opportunity to own a well-loved home in a prime Champlin location close to parks, trails, shopping, and easy access to major roadways. While the home has been cared for

Key facts

• 0.3 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1975

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential property; Split entry (bi-level) design; Concrete perimeter foundation
• Construction: Below-grade and above-grade finished living areas; Foundation area 1,596 (finished area below grade)
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.3 acres with dimensions 155 x 122 x 150 x 82

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Finished basement with block construction and egress windows; Two fireplaces

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-475 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $316k (21.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $280k (30.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $280k (30.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.9% in Champlin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 90/100 on livability (#4 in MN, #106 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+.
• Anoka-Hennepin Public School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #71 of 301 in MN (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 106 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 4,651 units permitted in Hennepin County in 2024 (2,443 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hennepin County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($394k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $400k implies a 900% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $279,745 (30.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.50%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $501,224
• List price: $399,900
• Delta: -20.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-95,072
• Equity at exit: $59,626

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-121,782
• Equity at exit: $34,576

Cash invested: $111,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55316

• Active inventory: 106
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,797 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax from tax record: −$366 /mo · $4,391/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$587
• Net cashflow: $-475

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,399

Max offer price $315,956

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,975
• Closing costs: $11,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-12
   historical Contingent - Inspection 832-char remark
2. 2026-05-10
   price $399,900 832-char remark
3. 2026-05-08
   listed $424,900 Active 832-char remark
4. 2026-04-23
   historical $424,900 832-char remark
5. 1973-04-01
   soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,391 · $366/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,435 · $370/mo
• Expected delta: +$44/yr (+$4/mo · 1.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,569
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,401
• − Property taxes: −$4,391
• − Insurance: −$2,666
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,686
• − Management: −$2,686
• − Depreciation: −$11,633
• Taxable loss: −$12,892
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,094
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,608/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anoka-Hennepin Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2703180
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $73,837
• Composite: 46.7/100
• National rank: #2400
• State rank: #71 of 301 in MN

Livability — Champlin

• Score: 90/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #106

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Champlin, MN
• County: Hennepin County · 1,150,272 people
• City population: 23,294
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 23,294
• Household income: $116,102
• Rent vs Own: 11.9% rent · 88.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 270.0

Population outlook (Hennepin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,405,227 people
• By 2030: 1,492,650 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 1,660,157 · +18.1%
• By 2050: 1,823,498 · +29.8%
• By 2075: 2,221,283 · +58.1%
• By 2100: 2,509,976 · +78.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 11% Asian 4% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 12% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hennepin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.6) · D 70.2% · R 27.5% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.0pp toward D · 2008: 28.6pp · 2024: 42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.6 2020: D+43.2 2016: D+35.3 2012: D+27.1 2008: D+28.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -311.30%
• Current HPI: 229.5956
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+899.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $399,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Listed $424,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Coming Soon $424,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1973-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,391 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.