2406 NW Austin Dr · Lawton, OK 73505

$105,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,643 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1963 0.25 ac lot Est $161k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor special! Large lot, approximately 0.25 acre. Ths house and yard have lots of potential.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1963

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential — Single Family Residence

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached 2-car garage with garage door opener; Driveway; 2 covered parking spaces; Open parking available (total 2 parking spaces)
• Security: Storm door(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Brick veneer construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Corner lot on a paved, city street (publicly maintained)
• Construction: Built with brick veneer; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio and porch; Porch; Patio; Storm door(s); Wood fencing; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms with walk-in closet(s)
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Vinyl; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Fireplace provides additional heat; Central air; Ceiling fans; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Double pane windows; Window coverings; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $303 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $103k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 6.1% in Lawton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#206 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, commute F.
• Lawton (urban): math 20% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #137 of 270 in OK (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Ridgecrest Es (math 27% / reading 17%, grade F, #413 of 845 statewide, top 54%, 453 students, 0% FRL); Central Ms (math 17% / reading 24%, grade F, #153 of 345 statewide, top 45%, 994 students, 0% FRL); Lawton Hs (math 16% / reading 21%, grade F, #302 of 447 statewide, top 68%, 1,417 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 54% district-wide (54 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 398 active listings in the ZIP; 133 units permitted in Comanche County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comanche County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.1% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $105k implies a 93% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,425 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.39%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $161,014
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4825 NW Hoover Ave	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,700 (+4%)	2mo	$180,000	$106	83
2306 NW 41st St	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,700 (+4%)	2mo	$139,900	$82	74
1727 NW 49th St	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (-3%)	5mo	$62,100	$39	71
4636 NW Lincoln Ave	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,800 (+10%)	3mo	$140,500	$78	70
4601 NW Ridgecrest Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,800 (+10%)	3mo	$195,000	$108	63
3909 NW Denver Ave	0.63mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,600 (-3%)	1mo	$165,000	$103	58
4640 NW Lincoln Ave	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-15%)	6mo	$137,500	$98	58
1620 NW 38th St	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (-3%)	3mo	$100,000	$63	54
4508 NW Denver Ave	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (-15%)	3mo	$155,000	$111	53
4313 NW Pollard Ave	0.29mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,400 (-15%)	1mo	$76,000	$54	52
1709 NW 50th St	0.38mi	3/1.5	1,400 (-15%)	5mo	$174,900	$125	52
1424 NW 50th St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-15%)	5mo	$133,000	$95	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $5,066
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $41,101
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73505

• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 398
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,254 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,112/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $303

Break-even live

Break-even rent $870

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-08
   listed $105,000 Active
2. 2010-06-25
   soldstatus $54,500 96-char remark

   Show marketing remark (96 chars)

   Investor special! Large lot, approximately 0.25 acre. Ths house and yard have lots of potential.

3. 2010-05-27
   listed $53,900 96-char remark

   Show marketing remark (96 chars)

   Investor special! Large lot, approximately 0.25 acre. Ths house and yard have lots of potential.

4. 2004-02-03
   soldstatus $77,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,112 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,112 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,046
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$1,112
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,204
• − Management: −$1,204
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $2,065
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$496
• After-tax cash flow: $3,146/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawton
• NCES district ID: 4017250
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $42,618
• Composite: 19.68/100
• National rank: #8732
• State rank: #137 of 270 in OK

Livability — Lawton

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #15131

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lawton, OK
• County: Comanche County · 96,361 people
• City population: 89,233
• Metro: Lawton, OK
• Population (ZIP): 47,790
• Household income: $58,272
• Rent vs Own: 48.2% rent · 51.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1986.0

Population outlook (Comanche County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 124,518 people
• By 2030: 124,231 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 122,193 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 120,368 · -3.3%
• By 2075: 120,492 · -3.2%
• By 2100: 123,113 · -1.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 17% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 16% Native American 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Comanche

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.3) · D 37.4% · R 60.7% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: -17.5pp · 2024: -23.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.3 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+23.7 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.88%
• Current HPI: 169.4524
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.14%
• Metro: Lawton, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+36.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $105,000 LBRMLS
• 2010-06-25 Sold (MLS) $54,500 LBRMLS
• 2010-05-27 Listed $53,900 LBRMLS
• 2004-02-03 Sold (Public Records) $77,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,112 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.