1048 NE Sapelo Gardens Rd · Crescent, GA 31331

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 120 Days on market

Built 1997 0.92 ac lot Est $181k · 31% under $33/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Perfect Time to Start Looking for that Weekend Place at the Coast! This 3 bdr 2 bath is on 3 Lots. 2 Lots fronting Johnson Rd and corner lot where the home is located giving you just under one acre with lots of possibilities. Plenty of room for future boat storage perhaps or detached shop. Home is currently rented on a month to month basis and is being “Sold As Is”. Some repairs needed on the interior and exterior that the owner is leaving up to the future Buyer. Sapelo Gardens offers Community Dock access on the Sapelo River with new membership! $5,000 to join then $400 a year. Easy boat launching at Belleville Public Boat Ramp at the end of Susie Baker Rd.

Key facts

• Easy boat launching
• Detached shop
• Boat storage

Tags

• COMMUNITY DOCK ACCESS
• BOAT STORAGE
• DETACHED SHOP
• EASY BOAT LAUNCHING

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $125,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$181,104) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $62 ($741/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $105k (15.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $105k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 1.0% in Crescent — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Mcintosh County (town): math 23% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #118 of 174 in GA (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 292 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in McIntosh County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• McIntosh County population projected at -34% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $9k; list at $125k implies a 1337% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,214 (15.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.12%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $181,104
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1383 Marsh Dr NE	0.39mi	2/1.0 (-1)	840 (-9%)	22mo	$165,000	$196	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.06×
• Total profit: $71,968
• Equity at exit: $112,610

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.96×
• Total profit: $208,758
• Equity at exit: $242,848

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31331

• Active inventory: 292
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,052 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $346/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$221
• Net cashflow: $62

Break-even live

Break-even rent $974

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $132	-5% $97	+0% $62	+5% $26	+10% $-9
Rent	-10% $-21	-5% $20	+0% $62	+5% $103	+10% $145
Rate	-1.0pp $125	-0.5pp $94	base $62	+0.5pp $29	+1.0pp $-4

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $125,000 Active 120 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 116 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 114 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 110 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 108 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 105 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 104 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 103 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 102 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 101 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 100 DOM
18. 2026-05-18
    price $125,000 678-char remark

    Show marketing remark (678 chars)

    Perfect Time to Start Looking for that Weekend Place at the Coast! This 3 bdr 2 bath is on 3 Lots. 2 Lots fronting Johnson Rd and corner lot where the home is located giving you just under one acre with lots of possibilities. Plenty of room for future boat storage perhaps or detached shop. Home is currently rented on a month to month basis and is being “Sold As Is”. Some repairs needed on the interior and exterior that the owner is leaving up to the future Buyer. Sapelo Gardens offers Community Dock access on the Sapelo River with new membership! $5,000 to join then $400 a year. Easy boat launching at Belleville Public Boat Ramp at the end of Susie Baker Rd.

19. 2026-03-31
    price $130,500 678-char remark

    Show marketing remark (678 chars)

    Perfect Time to Start Looking for that Weekend Place at the Coast! This 3 bdr 2 bath is on 3 Lots. 2 Lots fronting Johnson Rd and corner lot where the home is located giving you just under one acre with lots of possibilities. Plenty of room for future boat storage perhaps or detached shop. Home is currently rented on a month to month basis and is being “Sold As Is”. Some repairs needed on the interior and exterior that the owner is leaving up to the future Buyer. Sapelo Gardens offers Community Dock access on the Sapelo River with new membership! $5,000 to join then $400 a year. Easy boat launching at Belleville Public Boat Ramp at the end of Susie Baker Rd.

20. 2026-02-21
    price $145,000 678-char remark

    Show marketing remark (678 chars)

    Perfect Time to Start Looking for that Weekend Place at the Coast! This 3 bdr 2 bath is on 3 Lots. 2 Lots fronting Johnson Rd and corner lot where the home is located giving you just under one acre with lots of possibilities. Plenty of room for future boat storage perhaps or detached shop. Home is currently rented on a month to month basis and is being “Sold As Is”. Some repairs needed on the interior and exterior that the owner is leaving up to the future Buyer. Sapelo Gardens offers Community Dock access on the Sapelo River with new membership! $5,000 to join then $400 a year. Easy boat launching at Belleville Public Boat Ramp at the end of Susie Baker Rd.

21. 2026-02-18
    listed $179,000 Active 678-char remark

    Show marketing remark (678 chars)

    Perfect Time to Start Looking for that Weekend Place at the Coast! This 3 bdr 2 bath is on 3 Lots. 2 Lots fronting Johnson Rd and corner lot where the home is located giving you just under one acre with lots of possibilities. Plenty of room for future boat storage perhaps or detached shop. Home is currently rented on a month to month basis and is being “Sold As Is”. Some repairs needed on the interior and exterior that the owner is leaving up to the future Buyer. Sapelo Gardens offers Community Dock access on the Sapelo River with new membership! $5,000 to join then $400 a year. Easy boat launching at Belleville Public Boat Ramp at the end of Susie Baker Rd.

22. 1994-05-17
    soldstatus $8,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $346 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,150 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: +$804/yr (+$67/mo · 232.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,626
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$346
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,010
• − Management: −$1,010
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$1,400
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$336
• After-tax cash flow: $1,077/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mcintosh County
• NCES district ID: 1303600
• Math proficiency: 23% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $41,742
• Composite: 22.08/100
• National rank: #8188
• State rank: #118 of 174 in GA

Livability — Crescent

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crescent, GA
• Population (ZIP): 5,997

Population outlook (McIntosh County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,922 people
• By 2030: 12,156 · -5.9%
• By 2040: 10,332 · -20.0%
• By 2050: 8,526 · -34.0%
• By 2075: 5,506 · -57.4%
• By 2100: 3,635 · -71.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 28% Two or more races 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% French 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McIntosh

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.6) · D 35.5% · R 64.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.0pp · 2024: -28.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.6 2020: R+21.0 2016: R+20.1 2012: R+8.6 2008: R+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 85.75%
• Current HPI: 329.1351
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+1336.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $125,000 GIAR
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $130,500 GIAR
• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $145,000 GIAR
• 2026-02-18 Listed $179,000 GIAR
• 1994-05-17 Sold (Public Records) $8,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $346 · +139.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.