521 N Forest Ln · Republic, MO 65738

$199,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1976 10,019 sqft lot Est $217k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice corner lot! Updated ranch, 3 bedrooms, Pergo floors, new energy saving windows throughout. All new doors, fresh paint, smooth top stove, front porch plus a huge covered deck in back, large corner lot with privacy fencing. Swing set remains with property. Storage shed in backyard remains with house.

Key facts

• Modern updates
• Newer roof
• Refreshed bathroom

Tags

• MODERN UPDATES
• REFRESHED BATHROOM
• NEWER ROOF
• LARGE REAR DECK
• MATURE FRUIT-BEARING TREES
• RAISED GARDEN BEDS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached garage with 1 parking space
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Shingle roof; Block foundation; Built with vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Covered patio/deck; Deck; Fenced yard with full privacy fencing; Asphalt road frontage (city street, publicly maintained)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Free-standing electric oven; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Garbage disposal
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (forced air, electric); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Attic fan
• Interior features: Pantry; Insulated windows; Double-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in garage; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-36 ($-437/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (24.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $152k (24.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.0% in Republic — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#92 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Republic R-III (suburban): math 56% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #19 of 324 in MO (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Republic Middle (math 50% / reading 53%, grade C, #57 of 391 statewide, top 15%, 1,146 students, 39% FRL); Republic High (math 56% / reading 60%, grade C, #48 of 521 statewide, top 9%, 1,542 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 35% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 478 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $151,666 (24.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.78%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $217,360
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
521 N Forest Ln	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,144 (0%)	1mo	$199,900	$175	99
319 W Hines St	0.17mi	3/1.0	1,134 (-1%)	2mo	$189,900	$167	88
605 N West Ave	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+5%)	4mo	$175,000	$146	80
647 N Dana Ave	0.19mi	3/1.0	1,066 (-7%)	2mo	$215,000	$202	78
447 W Logan St	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,230 (+8%)	4mo	$229,900	$187	77
135 N Bonnie Ave	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,120 (-2%)	6mo	$190,000	$170	75
202 S Jackson St	0.53mi	3/1.5	1,154 (+1%)	1mo	$226,500	$196	71
626 N Phelps Ave	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+8%)	4mo	$180,000	$146	71
421 W Elm St	0.42mi	3/1.5	1,052 (-8%)	3mo	$199,900	$190	63
413 W Elm St	0.42mi	3/1.5	1,052 (-8%)	3mo	$205,000	$195	62
241 W Wilson St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,215 (+6%)	1mo	$235,000	$193	58
114 S Eagan St	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,262 (+10%)	1mo	$265,000	$210	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-33,840
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-28,834
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65738

• Home prices YoY: -32.2%
• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 478
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,517 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,235/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $-36

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,563

Max offer price $193,474

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
217 W Logan St Republic, MO	2.0	1.0	800	$1,300	$1.62	21d	1	0.21mi
725 W Juan Tabo Ln Republic, MO	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,600	$1.10	44d	1	0.44mi
912 N Walnut Ave Unit 15 Republic, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$775	$1.03	21d	1	0.45mi
912 N Walnut Ave Unit 06 Republic, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$775	$1.03	44d	1	0.45mi
241 W Wilson St Republic, MO	3.0	2.0	1215	$1,800	$1.48	14d	1	0.57mi
511 S Concordia Ave Republic, MO	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,395	$0.98	44d	1	0.87mi
414 S Michelle Ave Republic, MO	3.0	2.0	1446	$1,695	$1.17	14d	1	1.02mi
649 Rilynn Ave Republic, MO	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,500	$1.15	14d	1	1.05mi
109 N Allen Ave Republic, MO	3.0	1.0	1141	$1,295	$1.13	44d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-09
   listed $199,900 Active
3. 2020-04-21
   soldstatus
4. 2020-04-17
   soldstatus 305-char remark

   Show marketing remark (305 chars)

   Nice corner lot! Updated ranch, 3 bedrooms, Pergo floors, new energy saving windows throughout. All new doors, fresh paint, smooth top stove, front porch plus a huge covered deck in back, large corner lot with privacy fencing. Swing set remains with property. Storage shed in backyard remains with house.

5. 2020-02-28
   listed $115,000 305-char remark

   Show marketing remark (305 chars)

   Nice corner lot! Updated ranch, 3 bedrooms, Pergo floors, new energy saving windows throughout. All new doors, fresh paint, smooth top stove, front porch plus a huge covered deck in back, large corner lot with privacy fencing. Swing set remains with property. Storage shed in backyard remains with house.

6. 2009-10-21
   soldstatus
7. 2009-02-09
   listed $92,900
8. 2008-07-11
   listed $92,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,235 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,939 · $162/mo
• Expected delta: +$704/yr (+$59/mo · 57.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$1,235
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,456
• − Management: −$1,456
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$3,960
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$950
• After-tax cash flow: $514/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Republic R-III
• NCES district ID: 2926220
• Math proficiency: 56% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,329
• Composite: 48.3/100
• National rank: #2152
• State rank: #19 of 324 in MO

Livability — Republic

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #92
• US rank: #6228

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Republic, MO
• County: Greene County · 244,327 people
• City population: 21,283
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• Population (ZIP): 21,283
• Household income: $67,841
• Rent vs Own: 33.8% rent · 66.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 461.0

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,054 people
• By 2030: 335,135 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 366,186 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 397,431 · +24.6%
• By 2075: 477,035 · +49.5%
• By 2100: 520,828 · +63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.9% · R 59.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 217.1512
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.61%
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+115.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-04-09 Listed $199,900 SOMO
• 2020-04-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-04-17 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2020-02-28 Listed $115,000 SOMO
• 2009-10-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-02-09 Listed $92,900 SOMO
• 2008-07-11 Listed $92,900 SOMO

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,235 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.