21 Mirror Lake Rd · Thornton, NH 03285

$369,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,787 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1850 6,534 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Close to Mirror Lake! Two bedroom home just a half-mile from the public beach. On the first floor, you will find a kitchen, dining room, living room and half bath. There are 2 bedrooms, a large walk-in closet and a full bath upstairs. Additionally, there is an office, storage space and an extra room, all suitable for a home business. Come and make this your own! Property is being sold in as-is condition.

Key facts

• New ceilings
• New walls
• New baths

Tags

• COVERED ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH
• NEW WALLS
• NEW CEILINGS
• NEW BATHS
• LARGE KITCHEN
• BACK DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Documents available: Deed, Property Disclosure, Septic Design, Tax Map

Exterior

• Parking: Dirt driveway
• Utilities: Private septic with 1,000 gallon tank and leach field; Shared water; 100 amp electrical service with circuit breaker(s); High-speed internet and cable available; Cable available, LP/bottle gas
• Home design: Farmhouse style; Existing construction; Metal roof; Originally built in 1850
• Construction: Wood frame construction with vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Country setting with landscaping; Near trails, snowmobile trails, skiing, and golf course; Near paths and shopping

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Water heater
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two 3/4 bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Mini split cooling and heating; Multi-fuel heating with pellet stove and monitor-type stove
• Interior features: 7 total rooms; Basement: climate-controlled, concrete floor, partial, unfinished walkout
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $370k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $18 ($217/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $294k (20.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $294k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pemi-Baker Regional School District (rural): math 45% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #77 of 171 in NH (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 487 units permitted in Grafton County in 2024 (127 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $40k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $37k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Grafton County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $104k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$64k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($359k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $170k; list at $370k implies a 118% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1850 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $293,597 (20.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1850 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.21%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.96×
• Total profit: $202,496
• Equity at exit: $333,235

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.75×
• Total profit: $595,190
• Equity at exit: $718,634

Cash invested: $103,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Hampshire: 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Has just-cause statute; 30-day notice; landlord-leaning vs. neighbors.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 03285

• Home prices YoY: 29.5%
• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,936 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax from tax record: −$207 /mo · $2,489/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$617
• Net cashflow: $18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,913

Max offer price $369,900

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,475
• Closing costs: $11,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $369,900 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $369,900 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $369,900 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $369,900 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $369,900 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $369,900 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $369,900 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $369,900 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $369,900 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $369,900 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $369,900 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $369,900 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $369,900 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $369,900 Active 22 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $369,900 Active 21 DOM
16. 2026-05-10
    listed $369,900 Active
17. 2023-03-28
    soldstatus $170,000 Closed 407-char remark

    Show marketing remark (407 chars)

    Close to Mirror Lake! Two bedroom home just a half-mile from the public beach. On the first floor, you will find a kitchen, dining room, living room and half bath. There are 2 bedrooms, a large walk-in closet and a full bath upstairs. Additionally, there is an office, storage space and an extra room, all suitable for a home business. Come and make this your own! Property is being sold in as-is condition.

18. 2023-03-08
    historical Active with Contract 407-char remark

    Show marketing remark (407 chars)

    Close to Mirror Lake! Two bedroom home just a half-mile from the public beach. On the first floor, you will find a kitchen, dining room, living room and half bath. There are 2 bedrooms, a large walk-in closet and a full bath upstairs. Additionally, there is an office, storage space and an extra room, all suitable for a home business. Come and make this your own! Property is being sold in as-is condition.

19. 2023-01-28
    listed $179,000 Active 407-char remark

    Show marketing remark (407 chars)

    Close to Mirror Lake! Two bedroom home just a half-mile from the public beach. On the first floor, you will find a kitchen, dining room, living room and half bath. There are 2 bedrooms, a large walk-in closet and a full bath upstairs. Additionally, there is an office, storage space and an extra room, all suitable for a home business. Come and make this your own! Property is being sold in as-is condition.

20. 2016-04-15
    soldstatus $79,900 Closed 957-char remark

    Show marketing remark (957 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER JUST REDUCTION PRICE BY 30K & you can WALK to LAKE, have your IN HOME BUSINESS attached to home or CONVERT this space to a great MANCAVE or WOMANCAVE as it would make a great additional living space for this older farmhouse home. The home has has some updated not long ago. Main house has a new basement floor living room, eat in kitchen, den or dining room & half bath on the first floor . 2 bedrooms full bath & a large walk in closet upstairs . This home features a large back deck & wood floors, Some new windows & sidings have been replaced. What is now used as a workshop area was formerly used as a retail bait shop so run a business out of home if you wish. There is lots of storage w/ room to grow. Mirror Lake is just a short walk up the road & Located in the heart of the gateway to NHs White Mtns so activities to enjoy abound . Home has shared spring fed well & newer septic under parking .

21. 2016-04-11
    soldstatus $79,867
22. 2016-02-19
    historical Active with Contract 957-char remark

    Show marketing remark (957 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER JUST REDUCTION PRICE BY 30K & you can WALK to LAKE, have your IN HOME BUSINESS attached to home or CONVERT this space to a great MANCAVE or WOMANCAVE as it would make a great additional living space for this older farmhouse home. The home has has some updated not long ago. Main house has a new basement floor living room, eat in kitchen, den or dining room & half bath on the first floor . 2 bedrooms full bath & a large walk in closet upstairs . This home features a large back deck & wood floors, Some new windows & sidings have been replaced. What is now used as a workshop area was formerly used as a retail bait shop so run a business out of home if you wish. There is lots of storage w/ room to grow. Mirror Lake is just a short walk up the road & Located in the heart of the gateway to NHs White Mtns so activities to enjoy abound . Home has shared spring fed well & newer septic under parking .

23. 2015-06-17
    price $79,900 957-char remark

    Show marketing remark (957 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER JUST REDUCTION PRICE BY 30K & you can WALK to LAKE, have your IN HOME BUSINESS attached to home or CONVERT this space to a great MANCAVE or WOMANCAVE as it would make a great additional living space for this older farmhouse home. The home has has some updated not long ago. Main house has a new basement floor living room, eat in kitchen, den or dining room & half bath on the first floor . 2 bedrooms full bath & a large walk in closet upstairs . This home features a large back deck & wood floors, Some new windows & sidings have been replaced. What is now used as a workshop area was formerly used as a retail bait shop so run a business out of home if you wish. There is lots of storage w/ room to grow. Mirror Lake is just a short walk up the road & Located in the heart of the gateway to NHs White Mtns so activities to enjoy abound . Home has shared spring fed well & newer septic under parking .

24. 2015-02-03
    listed $109,900 Active 957-char remark

    Show marketing remark (957 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER JUST REDUCTION PRICE BY 30K & you can WALK to LAKE, have your IN HOME BUSINESS attached to home or CONVERT this space to a great MANCAVE or WOMANCAVE as it would make a great additional living space for this older farmhouse home. The home has has some updated not long ago. Main house has a new basement floor living room, eat in kitchen, den or dining room & half bath on the first floor . 2 bedrooms full bath & a large walk in closet upstairs . This home features a large back deck & wood floors, Some new windows & sidings have been replaced. What is now used as a workshop area was formerly used as a retail bait shop so run a business out of home if you wish. There is lots of storage w/ room to grow. Mirror Lake is just a short walk up the road & Located in the heart of the gateway to NHs White Mtns so activities to enjoy abound . Home has shared spring fed well & newer septic under parking .

25. 2009-04-15
    soldstatus $45,000
26. 2009-02-18
    listed $49,900
27. 2003-05-29
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,489 · $207/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,276 · $440/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,787/yr (+$232/mo · 112.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,232
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,720
• − Property taxes: −$2,489
• − Insurance: −$1,850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,819
• − Management: −$2,819
• − Depreciation: −$10,761
• Taxable loss: −$6,225
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,494
• After-tax cash flow: $1,711/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pemi-Baker Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3399965
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $42,275
• Composite: 49.93/100
• National rank: #4161
• State rank: #77 of 171 in NH

Livability — Thornton

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,763

Population outlook (Grafton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,798 people
• By 2030: 87,131 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 82,000 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 77,064 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 68,769 · -22.6%
• By 2100: 61,631 · -30.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 14% Lithuanian 12% Romanian 5%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grafton

• 2024 margin: D (+19.9) · D 59.4% · R 39.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.8pp toward R · 2008: 27.7pp · 2024: 19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.9 2020: D+24.6 2016: D+19.0 2012: D+23.8 2008: D+27.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 106.72%
• Current HPI: 468.1616
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+722.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Listed $369,900 PrimeMLS
• 2023-03-28 Sold (MLS) $170,000 PrimeMLS
• 2023-03-08 Contingent — PrimeMLS
• 2023-01-28 Listed $179,000 PrimeMLS
• 2016-04-15 Sold (MLS) $79,900 PrimeMLS
• 2016-04-11 Sold (Public Records) $79,867 Public Records
• 2016-02-19 Contingent — PrimeMLS
• 2015-06-17 Price Changed $79,900 PrimeMLS
• 2015-02-03 Listed $109,900 PrimeMLS
• 2009-04-15 Sold (MLS) $45,000 PrimeMLS
• 2009-02-18 Listed $49,900 PrimeMLS
• 2003-05-29 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,489 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.