The McGinnis Plan · Fulshear, TX 77441

$330,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,372 sqft · SingleFamily · 849 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 6% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The McGinnis is a two-story plan with a welcoming wide entry leading to a traditional dining room perfect for entertaining. The kitchen and family room live to the rear of the home, with convenient access to the yard. Upstairs, you'll find the spacious owner's suite and three secondary bedrooms, each with walk-in closets. A large secondary bathroom and ample laundry room are located off the open loft. For flexible living, a study or fifth bedroom and full bath are optional on the first floor.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 848 days

🏗️ New construction. The $330,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $374,007.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $331k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-206 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $301k (9.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $291k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.5% in Fulshear — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#430 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Huggins El (math 61% / reading 63%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 893 students, 23% FRL); Briscoe J H (math 59% / reading 60%, grade B, #166 of 1,662 statewide, top 11%, 1,914 students, 38% FRL); Foster H S (math 64% / reading 74%, grade B, #141 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 2,388 students, 34% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lamar CISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1928 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 185d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 849 days — a 12% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $291,271 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 849 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.36%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $374,007
• List price: $330,990
• Delta: -11.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8215 Red Shiner Way	0.20mi	4/3.5	2,455 (+4%)	1mo	$411,020	$167	80
32402 Fly Fish Way	0.13mi	4/3.5	2,446 (+3%)	9mo	$388,490	$159	77
8115 Red Shiner Way	0.18mi	4/3.5	2,446 (+3%)	11mo	$405,915	$166	73
33026 School Hill Rd	0.58mi	4/3.5	2,399 (+1%)	5mo	$339,990	$142	63
32403 Slender Spreadwing Dr	0.33mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,646 (+12%)	0mo	$374,900	$142	60
8239 Red Shiner Way	0.22mi	4/3.0	2,725 (+15%)	5mo	$384,990	$141	59
32332 Bluetipped Dancer	0.36mi	4/2.5	2,673 (+13%)	4mo	$424,900	$159	58
32646 Fly Fish Way	0.27mi	4/3.0	2,654 (+12%)	12mo	$465,000	$175	56
8426 Sheffields Leader	0.21mi	4/3.0	2,720 (+15%)	10mo	$476,990	$175	56
32452 Forktail Lake Dr	0.36mi	4/3.0	2,718 (+15%)	8mo	$545,990	$201	51
32438 Violet Dancer Ct	0.45mi	4/3.5	2,637 (+11%)	8mo	$550,940	$209	50
32447 Violet Dancer Ct	0.42mi	4/3.0	2,720 (+15%)	10mo	$510,000	$188	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-82,509
• Equity at exit: $55,766

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-122,665
• Equity at exit: $32,337

Cash invested: $104,722 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 131 active · 45 under contract
• Months of supply: 21.2 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $387,900 ($171/sqft)
• Median days on market: 67 d
• This list price: 15% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -8.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77441

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1928
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,011 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,961
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$468 /mo · $5,610/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$632
• Net cashflow: $-206

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,272

Max offer price $344,186

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $52	-5% $-77	+0% $-206	+5% $-335	+10% $-465
Rent	-10% $-444	-5% $-325	+0% $-206	+5% $-87	+10% $32
Rate	-1.0pp $-18	-0.5pp $-111	base $-206	+0.5pp $-303	+1.0pp $-402

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,502
• Closing costs: $11,220
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
32402 Clouser Crawdad Ct Fulshear, TX	5.0	3.5	3000	$2,950	$0.98	25d	1	0.13mi
8106 Royal Palm Ct Fulshear, TX	5.0	4.0	2946	$2,950	$1.00	184d	1	1.33mi
8114 Royal Palm Ct Fulshear, TX	5.0	4.0	2960	$3,295	$1.11	184d	1	1.35mi
31419 Horseshoe Meadow Bend Ln Fulshear, TX	3.0	2.0	1588	$2,100	$1.32	10d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $330,990 Active 849 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $330,990 Active 848 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $330,990 Active 847 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $330,990 Active 846 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $330,990 Active 845 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $330,990 Active 843 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $330,990 Active 842 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $330,990 Active 841 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $330,990 Active 840 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $330,990 Active 839 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $330,990 Active 838 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $330,990 Active 837 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $330,990 Active 836 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $330,990 Active 835 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $330,990 Active 834 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $330,990 Active 833 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $330,990 Active 832 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $330,990 Active 831 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $330,990 Active 830 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $330,990 Active 829 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $330,990 Active 828 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $330,990 Active 827 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $330,990 Active 826 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $330,990 Active 825 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $330,990 Active 824 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $330,990 Active 823 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $330,990 Active 822 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $330,990 Active 821 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $330,990 Active 820 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $330,990 Active 819 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $330,990 Active 818 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $330,990 Active 817 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $330,990 Active 816 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $330,990 Active 815 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $330,990 Active 814 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $330,990 Active 813 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $330,990 Active 812 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $330,990 Active 811 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $330,990 Active 810 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $330,990 Active 809 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $330,990 Active 808 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $330,990 Active 807 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $330,990 Active 806 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $330,990 Active 805 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $330,990 Active 804 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $330,990 Active 803 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $330,990 Active 802 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $330,990 Active 801 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $330,990 Active 800 DOM
50. 2026-09-16
    days on market $330,990 Active 796 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,131
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,950
• − Property taxes: −$5,610
• − Insurance: −$1,870
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,890
• − Management: −$2,890
• − Depreciation: −$10,880
• Taxable loss: −$8,961
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,151
• After-tax cash flow: $-322/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New lighting fixtures — Enhances interior aesthetics and functionality ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 63/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Huggins El B TX #321/4,322 Nat'l #6,217/41,679 Middle Dean Leaman J H School B TX #206/1,662 Nat'l #2,146/14,009 High Foster H S B TX #141/1,632 Nat'l #2,354/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Fulshear

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #430
• US rank: #8901

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
• City population: 41,324
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,324
• Household income: $184,390
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own

---

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 4% Chinese 4%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.74%
• Current HPI: 275.8798
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.63%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $326,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-01 Price Changed $324,990 Zillow
• 2025-02-04 Price Changed $322,990 Zillow
• 2024-12-11 Price Changed $338,990 Zillow
• 2024-07-13 Listed $348,990 Zillow