1458 Nena Hills Dr · Tallahassee, FL 32304

$185,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,356 sqft · Townhouse · 3 Days on market

Built 2005 Good condition 3,049 sqft lot Est $191k · at est. $32/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

very well maintained townhouse in Wolf Creek, recently updated. This unit offers 3BR/3BA and is ready for a new owner.

Key facts

• $32 HOA
• Parking
• Built 2005

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Offered for sale
• HOA & community: HOA fee of $380; Community has street lights

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Electric heating and cooling
• Home design: Brick and vinyl siding exterior
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Street lights in the community

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 2 — 12x12; Bedroom 3 — 11x12
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fans; Electric cooling components
• Interior features: Primary bedroom on the downstairs level; Pantry; Utility room; None (no additional interior features listed)
• Laundry & utility: Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $185k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-38 ($-455/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $180k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (12.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $161k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.2% in Tallahassee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#19 in FL, #429 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D.
• Leon (urban): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #33 of 73 in FL (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Fort Braden School (math 37% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,744 of 2,144 statewide, top 82%, 636 students, 72% FRL); Amos P. Godby High School (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #464 of 667 statewide, top 70%, 1,444 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 45% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 31% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Leon average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 142 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,765 units permitted in Leon County in 2024 (975 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,611/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($32k/yr) (locally 6995% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Leon County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,086 (12.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.88%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $191,196
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1817 Nena Hills Dr	0.02mi	3/3.0	1,344 (-1%)	13mo	$195,000	$145	87
1925 Nena Hills Dr	0.20mi	3/3.0	1,344 (-1%)	5mo	$185,750	$138	85
1942 Nena Hills Dr	0.23mi	3/3.0	1,344 (-1%)	6mo	$180,000	$134	82
1671 Corey Wood Cir	0.31mi	3/3.0	1,406 (+4%)	4mo	$193,000	$137	76
1978 Nena Hills Dr	0.30mi	3/3.0	1,344 (-1%)	15mo	$190,000	$141	72
1691 Corey Wood Cir	0.35mi	3/3.0	1,344 (-1%)	12mo	$205,000	$153	72
2006 Nena Hills Dr	0.35mi	3/3.0	1,344 (-1%)	15mo	$201,000	$150	70
1957 Nena Hills Dr	0.26mi	3/3.0	1,344 (-1%)	21mo	$203,000	$151	69
1865 Nena Hills Dr	0.10mi	3/3.5	1,547 (+14%)	5mo	$210,000	$136	66
1869 Nena Hills Dr	0.10mi	3/3.5	1,515 (+12%)	10mo	$209,000	$138	66
1461 Nena Hills Ct	0.06mi	3/3.0	1,178 (-13%)	12mo	$185,000	$157	65
1640 Corey Wood Cir	0.26mi	3/3.0	1,273 (-6%)	19mo	$160,000	$126	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.69% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-29,564
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-16,844
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32304

• Home prices YoY: -21.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 142
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,611 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$231 /mo · $2,775/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$32
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $-38

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,659

Max offer price $179,514

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $90	-5% $26	+0% $-38	+5% $-102	+10% $-166
Rent	-10% $-165	-5% $-102	+0% $-38	+5% $26	+10% $89
Rate	-1.0pp $55	-0.5pp $9	base $-38	+0.5pp $-86	+1.0pp $-135

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1672 Corey Wood Cir Tallahassee, FL	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,425	$1.16	15d	1	0.32mi
1694 Baldwin Park Dr Tallahassee, FL	3.0–4.0	3.0–4.0	1520	$1,500	$0.99	15d	4	0.94mi
1692 Baldwin Park Dr Unit 1692 Tallahassee, FL	3.0	3.0	1385	$1,475	$1.06	23d	1	0.98mi
1694 Baldwin Park Dr Unit 1607 Tallahassee, FL	4.0	4.0	1683	$1,900	$1.13	23d	1	0.99mi
1694 Baldwin Park Dr Unit 1650 Tallahassee, FL	3.0	3.0	1358	$1,600	$1.18	23d	1	0.99mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $32 · $384/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $185,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 118-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   listed $185,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,330
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,775
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,546
• − Management: −$1,546
• − HOA: −$384
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$3,591
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$862
• After-tax cash flow: $407/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained townhouse in Wolf Creek is ready for a new owner with minor cosmetic updates to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace ceiling fan — Improves air circulation and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace ceiling fan — Improves air circulation and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Leon
• NCES district ID: 1201110
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,339
• Composite: 42.84/100
• National rank: #3131
• State rank: #33 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tallahassee

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #429

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C+ Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Leon County · 294,472 people
• City population: 294,472
• Metro: Tallahassee, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,673
• Household income: $32,348
• Rent vs Own: 86.5% rent · 13.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 6995.0

Population outlook (Leon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,507 people
• By 2030: 330,677 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 358,465 · +13.6%
• By 2050: 386,804 · +22.6%
• By 2075: 465,480 · +47.5%
• By 2100: 519,959 · +64.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 36% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Leon

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.8) · D 60.3% · R 38.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 24.3pp · 2024: 21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.8 2020: D+28.3 2016: D+25.1 2012: D+23.6 2008: D+24.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.04%
• Current HPI: 267.8426
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.69%
• Metro: Tallahassee, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Listed $185,000 CATRS