Shipton Plan · Ponder, TX 76259

$337,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,877 sqft · SingleFamily · 426 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Shipton is a beautifully designed single-story home that combines thoughtful functionality with elegant simplicity. With 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and 1,877-1,913 square feet of open-concept living space, this home offers the flexibility growing families need and the style today's homeowners love.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 425 days

🏗️ New construction. The $337,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $365,446.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $338k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-617 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $276k (18.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (28.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (28.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#787 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Krum ISD (rural): math 44% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #218 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Krum Early Education Center (430 students, 49% FRL); Krum Middle (math 48% / reading 47%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 541 students, 37% FRL); Krum H S (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 686 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: 431 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 107d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 426 days — a 12% lower offer ($297k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $241,630 (28.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 426 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.23%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $365,446
• List price: $337,990
• Delta: -7.51%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7528 Lavender Ln	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,898 (+1%)	0mo	$369,990	$195	94
7424 Sunset Valley Ln	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,898 (+1%)	1mo	$344,990	$182	91
7608 Spicebush Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,756 (-6%)	2mo	$324,990	$185	78
7429 Sunset Valley Ln	0.15mi	4/2.0	2,029 (+8%)	2mo	$369,990	$182	78
7417 Lavender Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,790 (-5%)	2mo	$348,999	$195	76
7609 Spicebush Dr	0.07mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,699 (-10%)	1mo	$314,990	$185	73
7541 Lavender Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,065 (+10%)	2mo	$359,999	$174	73
1736 Nesting Robin Ln	0.44mi	4/3.0	2,018 (+8%)	1mo	$399,699	$198	62
7721 Royal Fern Dr	0.57mi	4/2.5	1,662 (-12%)	1mo	$300,990	$181	52
520 Red Admiral Ln	0.73mi	4/2.5	2,087 (+11%)	1mo	$342,175	$164	44
7705 Royal Fern Dr	0.56mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,129 (+13%)	0mo	$309,990	$146	42
417 Babbling Brook Dr	0.73mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,129 (+13%)	0mo	$304,990	$143	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-98,455
• Equity at exit: $54,489

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.33×
• Total profit: $-136,156
• Equity at exit: $31,597

Cash invested: $102,325 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 96 active · 40 under contract
• Months of supply: 11.3 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $337,990 ($188/sqft)
• Median days on market: 239 d
• This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +3.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76259

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 431
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,416 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,916
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$457 /mo · $5,482/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$507
• Net cashflow: $-617

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,197

Max offer price $276,217

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-364	-5% $-490	+0% $-617	+5% $-743	+10% $-869
Rent	-10% $-808	-5% $-712	+0% $-617	+5% $-521	+10% $-426
Rate	-1.0pp $-433	-0.5pp $-524	base $-617	+0.5pp $-711	+1.0pp $-808

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,361
• Closing costs: $10,963
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6827 Spring Branch Dr Krum, TX	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,800	$1.34	31d	1	0.49mi
7709 Tuscarora Dr Ponder, TX	5.0	3.0	2093	$2,450	$1.17	106d	1	0.51mi
1106 Spring Flower Dr Krum, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,800	$1.15	139d	1	0.77mi
1114 Spring Flower Dr Krum, TX	3.0	2.0	1736	$2,000	$1.15	65d	1	0.77mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $337,990 Active 426 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $337,990 Active 425 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $337,990 Active 424 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $337,990 Active 423 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $337,990 Active 422 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $337,990 Active 421 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $337,990 Active 420 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $337,990 Active 419 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $337,990 Active 418 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $337,990 Active 417 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $337,990 Active 416 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $337,990 Active 415 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $337,990 Active 414 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $337,990 Active 413 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $337,990 Active 407 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $337,990 Active 406 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $337,990 Active 404 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $337,990 Active 402 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $337,990 Active 401 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $337,990 Active 400 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $337,990 Active 399 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $337,990 Active 398 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $337,990 Active 396 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $337,990 Active 395 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $337,990 Active 394 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $337,990 Active 393 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $337,990 Active 392 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $337,990 Active 391 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $337,990 Active 390 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $337,990 Active 389 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $337,990 Active 388 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $337,990 Active 387 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $337,990 Active 386 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $337,990 Active 385 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $337,990 Active 384 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $337,990 Active 383 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $337,990 Active 382 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $337,990 Active 381 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $337,990 Active 380 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $337,990 Active 379 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $337,990 Active 377 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $337,990 Active 376 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $337,990 Active 375 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $337,990 Active 374 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $337,990 Active 371 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $337,990 Active 369 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $337,990 Active 368 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $337,990 Active 366 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $337,990 Active 364 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $337,990 Active 363 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,996
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,471
• − Property taxes: −$5,482
• − Insurance: −$1,827
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,320
• − Management: −$2,320
• − Depreciation: −$10,631
• Taxable loss: −$14,054
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,373
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,027/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,385–$28,155 screening

The Shipton Plan in Denton, TX is a well-maintained single-story home with good curb appeal and interior condition, ready for minor cosmetic updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — Ensures the HVAC system is functioning properly and energy-efficient, attracting renters. ↑
• Resale Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizing these spaces can attract more buyers and increase the property's value. ↑
• Resale Flooring replacement — Replacing worn-out flooring can significantly improve the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Both Roof inspection — Ensures the roof is in good condition and provides peace of mind for potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 46/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Krum Early Education Center Middle Krum Middle C- TX #408/1,662 Nat'l #4,042/14,009 High Krum H S F TX #652/1,632 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Krum ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825980
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $71,808
• Composite: 40.72/100
• National rank: #3664
• State rank: #218 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 64/100

Livability — Ponder

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #787
• US rank: #14394

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Denton County · 1,053,010 people
• City population: 6,596
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,596
• Household income: $101,845
• Rent vs Own: 26.2% rent · 73.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 30% of renters

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Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.17%
• Current HPI: 275.4082
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $337,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $341,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-25 Listed $340,990 Zillow