Is 31515 San Floro Dr in Huffman, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.2% cap rate and $-609/mo modeled cash flow at a $293,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 31515 San Floro Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 4.2% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,468/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 29.82

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +6.3/30.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Schools +3.5/10.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
Livability +2.5/5.0
1% rule +2.2/10.0
Appreciation +0.7/10.0
DSCR +0.6/10.0

$293,990

31515 San Floro Dr · Huffman, TX 77336

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,943 sqft · SingleFamily · 141 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2-car garage $192/mo HOA · 8% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

This new two-story home boasts a spacious and modern layout. At the back of the home on the first floor is a luxurious owner's suite showcasing a full bathroom and walk-in closet, with a secondary bedroom located off the foyer. A convenient flex space is tucked away off the main living area, which features direct access to a covered patio for seamless indoor-outdoor transitions and entertaining. On the second floor, three additional bedrooms surround a versatile game room, ready for hosting guests or lounging at the end of the day.

Key facts

Full bathroom
Walk-in closet
Flex space

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $294k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-609 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $254k (13.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (16.1% below list).
Recommended offer: $247k (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 5.4% in Huffman — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Huffman ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Falcon Ridge El (math 30% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,234 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 689 students, 49% FRL); Huffman Middle (math 36% / reading 32%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 907 students, 42% FRL); Hargrave H S (math 31% / reading 46%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 1,125 students, 36% FRL).
Market conditions: 857 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($96k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($259k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $42k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $246,754 (16.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.72% ✗
Cap rate: 4.16%
Cash-on-cash: -7.62%
DSCR: 0.66
GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $342,437
List price: $293,990
Delta: -13.56%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31513 San Floro Dr	0.00mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,410 (-18%)	3mo	$280,990	$117	68
31505 San Floro Dr	0.06mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,410 (-18%)	7mo	$358,990	$149	61
31406 San Floro Dr	0.08mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,410 (-18%)	8mo	$362,990	$151	60
31502 San Floro Dr	0.07mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,410 (-18%)	7mo	$317,990	$132	57
1113 Velas View Dr	1.09mi	5/4.0	3,023 (+3%)	2mo	$340,830	$113	55
139 Jett	0.77mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,914 (-1%)	8mo	$360,000	$124	51
916 Capracotta Dr	0.31mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,400 (-18%)	4mo	$352,990	$147	50
1117 Velas View Dr	1.09mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,753 (-6%)	1mo	$359,630	$131	46
31110 Rivage Beach Dr	1.12mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,747 (-7%)	2mo	$331,380	$121	46
31112 Rivage Beach Dr	1.12mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,172 (+8%)	0mo	$349,080	$110	45
1111 Velas View Dr	1.09mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,172 (+8%)	2mo	$380,080	$120	43
31303 Kingsley Pines Dr	0.65mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,418 (-18%)	6mo	$446,000	$184	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -29.6%
Equity multiple: 0.02×
Total profit: $-94,131
Equity at exit: $51,058

10-year hold

IRR: -30.1%
Equity multiple: -0.37×
Total profit: $-131,295
Equity at exit: $29,608

Cash invested: $95,882 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 28 active · 4 under contract
Months of supply: 56.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $300,995 ($115/sqft)
Median days on market: 127 d
This list price: 39% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +1.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77336

Home prices YoY: -1.8%
Active inventory: 857
Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,468 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,796
Tax est. 1.5%: −$428 /mo · $5,137/yr
Insurance: −$143
HOA: −$192
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
Net cashflow: $-609

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,239

Max offer price $254,292

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-372	-5% $-491	+0% $-609	+5% $-727	+10% $-846
Rent	-10% $-804	-5% $-707	+0% $-609	+5% $-512	+10% $-414
Rate	-1.0pp $-437	-0.5pp $-522	base $-609	+0.5pp $-698	+1.0pp $-788

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $85,609
Closing costs: $10,273
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Lease not considered
HOA & community: Community managed by KRJ Management, Inc.Annual association fee of $2,300

Exterior

Parking: Attached 2-car garage
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Slab foundation
Construction: Built by Lennar HomesBrick constructionComposition roofYear built 2026
Exterior features: Back yard fenceSubdivision lot

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeGas ovenGas range
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor)Bedroom (first floor)Bedroom (second floor)Bedroom (second floor)
Flooring: CarpetVinyl
Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas)Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
Interior features: Breakfast barDouble vanityKitchen/family room comboSeparate showerTub with showerKitchen/dining comboOffice (first floor)Dining room (first floor)Family room (first floor)Game room (second floor)9 total rooms
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-24

days on market $293,990 Active 141 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $293,990 Active 140 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $293,990 Active 139 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $293,990 Active 138 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $293,990 Active 137 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $293,990 Active 136 DOM
2026-09-18

pricedays on market $293,990 Active 135 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $295,990 Active 134 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $295,990 Active 133 DOM
2026-09-15

pricedays on market $295,990 Active 132 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $299,990 Active 131 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $299,990 Active 130 DOM
2026-09-13

price $299,990 Active 129 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $304,990 Active 129 DOM
2026-09-11

days on market $304,990 Active 128 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $304,990 Active 122 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $304,990 Active 121 DOM
2026-09-02

days on market $304,990 Active 119 DOM
2026-08-31

pricedays on market $304,990 Active 117 DOM
2026-08-30

days on market $308,990 Active 116 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $308,990 Active 115 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $308,990 Active 114 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $308,990 Active 113 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $308,990 Active 111 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $308,990 Active 110 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $308,990 Active 109 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $308,990 Active 108 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $308,990 Active 107 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $308,990 Active 106 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $308,990 Active 105 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $308,990 Active 104 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $308,990 Active 103 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $308,990 Active 102 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $308,990 Active 101 DOM
2026-08-14

pricedays on market $308,990 Active 100 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $313,990 Active 99 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $313,990 Active 98 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $313,990 Active 97 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $313,990 Active 96 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $313,990 Active 95 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $313,990 Active 94 DOM
2026-08-07

price $313,990 Active 92 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $318,990 Active 92 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $318,990 Active 91 DOM
2026-08-04

pricedays on market $318,990 Active 90 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $323,990 Active 89 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $323,990 Active 86 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $323,990 Active 84 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $323,990 Active 83 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $323,990 Active 81 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $29,610
− Mortgage interest: −$19,182
− Property taxes: −$5,137
− Insurance: −$1,712
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,369
− Management: −$2,369
− HOA: −$2,304
− Depreciation: −$9,962
Taxable loss: −$13,424

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,222
After-tax cash flow: $-4,088/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This modern two-story home is in excellent condition with a spacious and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor exterior painting and landscaping improvements to enhance its curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

Resale Painting the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can add value ↑
Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can add value ↑
Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase both resale and rental value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 35/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Falcon Ridge El F TX #2,234/4,322 Nat'l #24,773/41,679 Middle Huffman Middle F TX #892/1,662 Nat'l #7,813/14,009 High Hargrave H S F TX #866/1,632 Nat'l #8,796/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Huffman ISD
NCES district ID: 4823820
Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -9.00%
Median HH income: $65,848
Composite: 30.61/100
National rank: #6195
State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

Livability — Huffman

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 14,342
Household income: $96,404
Rent vs Own: 21.8% rent · 78.2% own
Severe rent burden: 22% of renters

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Native American 4%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -8.59%
Current HPI: 472.03
Rent YoY: —
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-5.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

2026-05-26 Price Changed $340,990 HARMLS
2026-05-23 Price Changed $340,990 Zillow
2026-05-06 Listed $335,740 HARMLS
2026-05-01 Price Changed $335,740 Zillow
2026-04-28 Listed $360,990 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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