454 Madison 3785 · Kingston, AR 72742

$129,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,076 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1993 1.00 ac lot $121/sqft · 77% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Nice 2 bedroom 1 & 1/2 bath home, with a loft, on 1 acre. Rural water, with a well backup, and fiber optic. Large shade trees gives it a quiet country setting with a peaceful feel. Fenced garden plot. This price point doesn't come along very often, act quickly. The home is sold as is.

Key facts

• Fenced garden plot
• Rural water
• Large shade trees

Tags

• FENCED GARDEN PLOT
• RURAL WATER
• WELL BACKUP
• FIBER OPTIC
• LARGE SHADE TREES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee; Near national forest; Near fire station; Near schools

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel driveway
• Utilities: Electricity available; Fiber optic available; Propane available; Phone available; Septic available (septic tank); Water available (public and well)
• Home design: 2-story; Crawlspace foundation
• Construction: Wood siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built with wood siding
• Exterior features: Deck; Gravel driveway; Storage; Partial wire fencing; Cleared lot; Hardwood trees; Outside city limits; Rolling slope; Rural, secluded and wooded setting; County road frontage; Gravel road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Countertop; Propane range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bonus room
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Heat pump; Radiant heating; Wall furnace; Central air; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Programmable thermostat; Solid surface counters; Window treatments; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-130 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $111k (14.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $97k (25.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $97k (25.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jasper School District (rural): math 33% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #115 of 238 in AR (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jasper Elementary School (math 47% / reading 37%, grade F, #173 of 454 statewide, top 43%, 271 students, 65% FRL); Jasper High School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #119 of 292 statewide, top 43%, 208 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 29 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Madison County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $97,161 (25.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.29%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $575,000
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: -77.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $7,374
• Equity at exit: $58,409

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $37,909
• Equity at exit: $90,015

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72742

• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $972 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,948/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$204
• Net cashflow: $-130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,136

Max offer price $111,069

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-40	-5% $-85	+0% $-130	+5% $-175	+10% $-220
Rent	-10% $-207	-5% $-169	+0% $-130	+5% $-92	+10% $-53
Rate	-1.0pp $-65	-0.5pp $-97	base $-130	+0.5pp $-164	+1.0pp $-198

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $129,900 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,900 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $129,900 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,900 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,900 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $129,900 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,900 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $129,900 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $129,900 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 17 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 16 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 15 DOM
19. 2026-05-15
    listed $129,900 Active 291-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,659
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,948
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$933
• − Management: −$933
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$3,859
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$926
• After-tax cash flow: $-635/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jasper School District
• NCES district ID: 0508240
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $33,615
• Composite: 29.59/100
• National rank: #6480
• State rank: #115 of 238 in AR

Livability — Kingston

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 481

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,655 people
• By 2030: 15,418 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 14,824 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 14,198 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 12,827 · -18.1%
• By 2100: 10,871 · -30.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.6) · D 19.9% · R 78.5% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.7pp toward R · 2008: -28.9pp · 2024: -58.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.6 2020: R+55.7 2016: R+49.1 2012: R+32.9 2008: R+28.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $129,900 NWARMLS