2315 Chaparrel Cliff Trl · Spring, TX 77373

$229,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,434 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 5,754 sqft lot $160/sqft · 7% below area Est $249k · 7% under $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully maintained, move in ready home featuring modern finishes and an open concept layout filled with natural light. The kitchen boasts a large island, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and rich cabinetry, flowing seamlessly into the living and dining areas, perfect for entertaining. The spacious primary suite offers a private retreat with a walk in closet and ensuite bath featuring dual vanities and a tub/shower combo. Additional highlights include well sized secondary rooms, a dedicated laundry area, and durable flooring throughout. Enjoy a fully fenced backyard with endless potential for outdoor living. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and

Key facts

• Rich cabinetry
• Walk-in closet
• Large island

Tags

• LARGE ISLAND
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• RICH CABINETRY
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• EN-SUITE BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association-managed pool
• HOA & community: Breckenridge Forest association; Community playground and pool; Annual association fee of $600

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Concrete road access
• Home design: Residential property; Faces southeast; Built in 2021; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Patio; Fully fenced backyard; Sprinkler/irrigation system; Subdivision and side yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Gas cooktop; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (14x12); Two additional bedrooms on the first floor (11x11; 10x11)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning; Thermostat (energy efficient)
• Interior features: Double vanities; Granite counters; Kitchen island; Pantry; Tub with shower; Programmable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-50 ($-605/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (3.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $230k).
• Recommended offer: $221k (3.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.5% in Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#635 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Gloria Marshall El (math 15% / reading 25%, grade F, #3,536 of 4,322 statewide, top 83%, 953 students, 81% FRL); Rickey C Bailey Middle (math 15% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,466 of 1,662 statewide, top 89%, 1,065 students, 85% FRL); Spring H S (math 12% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,497 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 2,760 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 603 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,049 (3.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.94%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $248,557
• List price: $229,950
• Delta: -7.49%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23614 Summer Pine Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,467 (+2%)	12mo	$240,000	$164	73
22911 Pebworth Pl	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+3%)	14mo	$165,000	$112	64
22843 Spruce Summit Trl	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,380 (-4%)	21mo	$236,000	$171	57
2306 Juniper Hedge Cir	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,634 (+14%)	15mo	$266,990	$163	52
23130 Royal Tiger Rd	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,533 (+7%)	21mo	$249,000	$162	46
4227 Mossygate Dr	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,609 (+12%)	10mo	$150,000	$93	38
2514 Spring Day Ct	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,648 (+15%)	10mo	$215,000	$130	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-47,111
• Equity at exit: $34,286

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-70,771
• Equity at exit: $19,882

Cash invested: $64,386 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77373

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 603
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,343 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$550 /mo · $6,599/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $-50

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,407

Max offer price $221,049

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $80	-5% $15	+0% $-50	+5% $-115	+10% $-181
Rent	-10% $-236	-5% $-143	+0% $-50	+5% $42	+10% $135
Rate	-1.0pp $65	-0.5pp $8	base $-50	+0.5pp $-110	+1.0pp $-171

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,488
• Closing costs: $6,898
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $229,950 Pending 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,950 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,950 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $229,950 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $229,950 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $229,950 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $229,950 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $229,950 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $229,950 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-04-24
    listed $239,950 Active 763-char remark
11. 2025-03-14
    historical
12. 2025-03-13
    listed $244,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,599 · $550/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,599 · $550/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,120
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,881
• − Property taxes: −$6,599
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,250
• − Management: −$2,250
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$6,689
• Taxable loss: −$4,298
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,032
• After-tax cash flow: $427/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready home features modern finishes and an open concept layout, with good condition and minimal repairs needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and could attract more buyers
• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can make the home look newer and more appealing

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and could attract more buyers ↑
• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can make the home look newer and more appealing ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Spring

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #635
• US rank: #12101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 430,529
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,739
• Household income: $88,617
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1050.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 23% Two or more races 22% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 32% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.98%
• Current HPI: 251.7231
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $229,950 HARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $239,950 HARMLS
• 2025-03-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-13 Listed $244,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+84.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,599 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.