928 SW Mary Ter · Lake City, FL 32024

$164,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 196 Days on market

Built 1996 5.01 ac lot ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Property being sold "AS IS". Perfect opportunity if you are looking for a fixer-upper located on a beautiful 5 acre lot. Quiet neighborhood located in Lake City, just minutes from town. Fenced in yard. Property has 2 septics. RV / Camper hook-up on the backside of property. Wood barn with a new metal roof. Barn has power. Seller says power on at MH just turned off to house. When entering MH be cautious of soft spots in the floor. Rehab the MH and live there while you build your dream home on this beautiful spot. This property has a lot of potential, check it out today!!

Key facts

• New metal roof
• 5 acre lot
• Rv camper hook-up

Tags

• 5 ACRE LOT
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• FENCED IN YARD
• RV CAMPER HOOK-UP
• NEW METAL ROOF
• BARN HAS POWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 5.01 acres (raw lot dimensions 280 x 800)

Exterior

• Parking: 3-car garage
• Utilities: Private well water
• Home design: Manufactured home; Residential property; Zoned residential
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Barn(s) on the property

Interior

• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Vinyl flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $367 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 3.8% in Lake City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#304 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F, employment F.
• Columbia (town): math 53% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #25 of 73 in FL (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Fort White Elementary School (math 54% / reading 52%, grade C, #963 of 2,144 statewide, top 45%, 681 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: 206 active listings in the ZIP; 178 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 196 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 196 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.54%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.45×
• Total profit: $113,130
• Equity at exit: $148,555

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.82×
• Total profit: $314,672
• Equity at exit: $320,364

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32024

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Active inventory: 206
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,750 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $987/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $367

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,286

Max offer price $164,900

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $460	-5% $414	+0% $367	+5% $320	+10% $274
Rent	-10% $229	-5% $298	+0% $367	+5% $436	+10% $505
Rate	-1.0pp $450	-0.5pp $409	base $367	+0.5pp $324	+1.0pp $281

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $164,900 Active 196 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $164,900 Active 194 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,900 Active 193 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,900 Active 192 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,900 Active 191 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,900 Active 190 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $164,900 Active 188 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   remarks 576-char remark
9. 2026-06-12
   listed $164,900 Active 187 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $987 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,369 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$382/yr (+$32/mo · 38.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,003
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$987
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,680
• − Management: −$1,680
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable income: $1,796
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$431
• After-tax cash flow: $3,972/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia
• NCES district ID: 1200360
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $40,053
• Composite: 44.74/100
• National rank: #2750
• State rank: #25 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #304
• US rank: #5154

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 40,507
• Population (ZIP): 20,644

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,129 people
• By 2030: 67,501 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 65,465 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 63,058 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 56,291 · -17.4%
• By 2100: 45,243 · -33.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Portuguese 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.2) · D 24.6% · R 74.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.8pp · 2024: -50.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.2 2020: R+45.2 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+36.7 2008: R+33.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.05%
• Current HPI: 269.4659
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-5.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Relisted — NFMLS
• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $164,900 NFMLS
• 2025-08-14 Listed $175,000 NFMLS

Property tax history

-1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $987 · -59.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.