2701 Johnson Dr · Sherman, TX 75092

$266,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,720 sqft · SingleFamily · 43 Days on market

Built 2026 7,187 sqft lot $155/sqft · 21% below area Est $339k · 21% under $82/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new single-story design makes smart use of the space available. At the front are all three secondary bedrooms arranged near a convenient full-sized bathroom. Down the foyer is a modern layout connecting a peninsula-style kitchen made for inspired meals, an intimate dining area and a family room ideal for gatherings. Tucked in a quiet corner is the owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• 7,187 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot features: 60 x 120 lot, less than 0.5 acre
• Financial info: Accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA financing
• HOA & community: Mandatory association; Annual HOA fee (includes full use of facilities and management fees); HOA management: Legacy SW

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (garage faces front); 2 covered parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s); Carbon monoxide detector(s)
• Utilities: City sewer; City water; Curbs; Sidewalk
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; New construction (incomplete); Not attached to another unit; Subdivision: Travis Heights
• Construction: Brick and fiber cement exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Year built: 2026 (new construction - incomplete)
• Exterior features: Landscaped yard; Sprinkler system; Wood fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Natural stone/granite countertops; Built-in cabinets; Walk-in pantry; Dishwasher; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on the main level); Primary bedroom on main level with walk-in closet
• Flooring: Carpet; Other
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Built-in features; Decorative lighting; Cable TV available; High-speed internet available; Pantry; Walk-in closet(s); One living area; One dining area; Total room count: 7; Levels: One

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $267k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-280 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (15.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (21.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.7% in Sherman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,027 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment C-, schools D-.
• S And S CISD (rural): math 37% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #381 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 636 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($259k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,442 (21.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.50%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $338,674
• List price: $266,999
• Delta: -21.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-67,156
• Equity at exit: $39,810

10-year hold

• IRR: -42.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.40×
• Total profit: $-104,756
• Equity at exit: $23,085

Cash invested: $74,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75092

• Rents YoY: -2.4%
• Active inventory: 636
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,084 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,400
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$334 /mo · $4,005/yr
• Insurance: −$111
• HOA: −$82
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $-280

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,439

Max offer price $226,413

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,750
• Closing costs: $8,010
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3320 Preston Club Dr Sherman, TX	3.0	2.0	1767	$2,250	$1.27	43d	1	1.37mi
4901 Lakeside Dr Sherman, TX	3.0	2.0	1626	$1,899	$1.17	20d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $82 · $984/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $266,999 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $266,999 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $266,999 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $266,999 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $266,999 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $267,999 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $267,999 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $267,999 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $267,999 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $267,999 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    price $267,999 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $273,999 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $273,999 Active 31 DOM

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    This new single-story design makes smart use of the space available. At the front are all three secondary bedrooms arranged near a convenient full-sized bathroom. Down the foyer is a modern layout connecting a peninsula-style kitchen made for inspired meals, an intimate dining area and a family room ideal for gatherings. Tucked in a quiet corner is the owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet.

14. 2026-06-05
    days on market $273,999 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $273,999 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $273,999 Active 25 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $273,999 Active 24 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $273,999 Active 23 DOM
19. 2026-05-18
    price $276,999 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    This new single-story design makes smart use of the space available. At the front are all three secondary bedrooms arranged near a convenient full-sized bathroom. Down the foyer is a modern layout connecting a peninsula-style kitchen made for inspired meals, an intimate dining area and a family room ideal for gatherings. Tucked in a quiet corner is the owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet.

20. 2026-05-15
    price $278,999 42-char remark
21. 2026-05-11
    price $278,999 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    This new single-story design makes smart use of the space available. At the front are all three secondary bedrooms arranged near a convenient full-sized bathroom. Down the foyer is a modern layout connecting a peninsula-style kitchen made for inspired meals, an intimate dining area and a family room ideal for gatherings. Tucked in a quiet corner is the owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet.

22. 2026-05-07
    listed $288,999 Active 42-char remark
23. 2026-04-06
    listed $288,999 Active 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    This new single-story design makes smart use of the space available. At the front are all three secondary bedrooms arranged near a convenient full-sized bathroom. Down the foyer is a modern layout connecting a peninsula-style kitchen made for inspired meals, an intimate dining area and a family room ideal for gatherings. Tucked in a quiet corner is the owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,013
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,956
• − Property taxes: −$4,005
• − Insurance: −$1,335
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,001
• − Management: −$2,001
• − HOA: −$984
• − Depreciation: −$7,767
• Taxable loss: −$8,036
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,929
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,437/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: S And S CISD
• NCES district ID: 4838400
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $59,107
• Composite: 34.94/100
• National rank: #5064
• State rank: #381 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sherman

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1027
• US rank: #18243

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Grayson County · 108,053 people
• City population: 54,936
• Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,342
• Household income: $68,036
• Rent vs Own: 41.9% rent · 58.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1278.0

Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 134,540 people
• By 2030: 138,653 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 145,958 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 151,218 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 161,802 · +20.3%
• By 2100: 159,036 · +18.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.5% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+49.9 2016: R+53.1 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -201.47%
• Current HPI: 235.984
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.36%
• Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $266,999 NTREIS
• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $266,999 Zillow
• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $267,999 NTREIS
• 2026-06-07 Price Changed $267,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $273,999 NTREIS
• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $273,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $276,999 NTREIS
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $276,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $278,999 NTREIS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $278,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-07 Listed $288,999 NTREIS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $288,999 Zillow