2517 Gulf Breeze Ave · Warrington, FL 32507

$261,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,602 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 151 Days on market

Built 2003 7,100 sqft lot Est $306k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

! Some !! located just a block from the water ~ NAS is just 10 minutes away from front gate or back gate ~ Downtown P'Cola is just 15 minutes away ~ Perdido Key is also just 15 minutes away What I love about the home What I Love About this Home Is just About Everything. So Convenient to Everything, Beaches, stores, Downtown Pensacola and The Navy Base. Every Tuesday enjoy The Blue Angel's Practice Show in The Comfort of Your Yard! Grass is Always Green and The Yard Is So Easy to Keep Up with. New Updats Through out. Not To Mention the Best Carpet On the Market and The Padding also! Neighbors are all So Very Nice and Friendly.

Key facts

• Wood-look flooring
• Open floor plan
• Cathedral ceilings

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• CATHEDRAL CEILINGS
• WOOD-LOOK FLOORING
• WOODEN CABINETRY
• BREAKFAST BAR
• WALK-IN CLOSETS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Energy-efficient features include insulation and insulated walls; ENERGY STAR qualified dishwasher, refrigerator, and water heater
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener; Two covered parking spaces (total 2 parking spaces); Front entrance access to garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Circuit breakers with copper wiring; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story concrete construction; One-level entry
• Construction: Concrete construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built as resale (not new construction)
• Exterior features: Privacy backyard fencing; Back yard fencing; Yard building (outbuilding); County-maintained road access; Central access lot feature

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate counters; Pantry; Built-in microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 10.25' × 13.5'); Second bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12.08' × 9.67')
• Flooring: Tile; Simulated wood
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms, main bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans for cooling
• Interior features: Bookcases; Ceiling fans; Insulated doors; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $261k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $283 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (5.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.3% in Warrington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#631 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pleasant Grove Elementary School (math 60% / reading 53%, grade C+, #816 of 2,144 statewide, top 39%, 534 students, 66% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 56% at this address vs 42% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Escambia average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 701 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($230k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $156k; list at $261k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $229,680 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.74%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $305,982
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2517 Gulf Breeze Ave	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,602 (0%)	1mo	$261,000	$163	96
2414 Redoubt Ave	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,756 (+10%)	6mo	$275,000	$157	62
8712 Schooner Ln	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,516 (-5%)	3mo	$277,000	$183	59
2125 Bainbridge Ave	0.73mi	3/3.0	1,750 (+9%)	1mo	$524,985	$300	50
8634 Russellcross Blvd	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,799 (+12%)	4mo	$334,900	$186	45
8650 Russellcross Blvd	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,799 (+12%)	6mo	$342,900	$191	44
8611 Russellcross Blvd	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,799 (+12%)	1mo	$354,900	$197	40
8629 Russellcross Blvd	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,799 (+12%)	2mo	$349,900	$194	39
8637 Russellcross Blvd	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,799 (+12%)	4mo	$338,900	$188	37
8662 Russellcross Blvd	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,799 (+12%)	1mo	$366,900	$204	37
8626 Russellcross Blvd	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,799 (+12%)	4mo	$358,000	$199	36
8657 Russellcross Blvd	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,799 (+12%)	5mo	$317,900	$177	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-28,657
• Equity at exit: $38,916

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-19,165
• Equity at exit: $22,567

Cash invested: $73,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32507

• Home prices YoY: -4.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 701
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,479 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,369
• Tax from tax record: −$131 /mo · $1,573/yr
• Insurance: −$109
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$521
• Net cashflow: $283

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,120

Max offer price $261,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $431	-5% $357	+0% $283	+5% $209	+10% $136
Rent	-10% $87	-5% $185	+0% $283	+5% $381	+10% $479
Rate	-1.0pp $415	-0.5pp $350	base $283	+0.5pp $216	+1.0pp $147

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,250
• Closing costs: $7,830
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2572 Gulf Breeze Ave Pensacola, FL	4.0	2.0	2000	$3,200	$1.60	24d	1	0.12mi
8727 Schooner Ln Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1279	$1,950	$1.52	24d	1	0.53mi
3762 Weatherstone Cir Pensacola, FL	4.0	2.0	1817	$1,950	$1.07	24d	1	0.62mi
7895 Bay Meadows Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1566	$2,200	$1.40	24d	1	0.71mi
9527 Laramie Dr Pensacola, FL	4.0	2.0	1925	$2,100	$1.09	24d	1	1.29mi
2289 Dog Track Rd Unit b Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.0	1070	$1,850	$1.73	14d	1	1.38mi
9219 Gulf Beach Hwy Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.0	1472	$1,249	$0.85	24d	1	1.38mi
727 Bremen Ave Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1512	$1,650	$1.09	22d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-27
   historical Contingent
3. 2026-04-09
   price $261,000
4. 2026-03-06
   price $262,500
5. 2026-02-04
   price $265,000
6. 2025-12-04
   listed $270,000 Active
7. 2018-11-15
   soldstatus $156,000 636-char remark

   Show marketing remark (636 chars)

   ! Some !! located just a block from the water ~ NAS is just 10 minutes away from front gate or back gate ~ Downtown P'Cola is just 15 minutes away ~ Perdido Key is also just 15 minutes away What I love about the home What I Love About this Home Is just About Everything. So Convenient to Everything, Beaches, stores, Downtown Pensacola and The Navy Base. Every Tuesday enjoy The Blue Angel's Practice Show in The Comfort of Your Yard! Grass is Always Green and The Yard Is So Easy to Keep Up with. New Updats Through out. Not To Mention the Best Carpet On the Market and The Padding also! Neighbors are all So Very Nice and Friendly.

8. 2018-11-15
   soldstatus $156,000

   Show marketing remark (636 chars)

   ! Some !! located just a block from the water ~ NAS is just 10 minutes away from front gate or back gate ~ Downtown P'Cola is just 15 minutes away ~ Perdido Key is also just 15 minutes away What I love about the home What I Love About this Home Is just About Everything. So Convenient to Everything, Beaches, stores, Downtown Pensacola and The Navy Base. Every Tuesday enjoy The Blue Angel's Practice Show in The Comfort of Your Yard! Grass is Always Green and The Yard Is So Easy to Keep Up with. New Updats Through out. Not To Mention the Best Carpet On the Market and The Padding also! Neighbors are all So Very Nice and Friendly.

9. 2018-09-27
   listed $160,000 636-char remark

   Show marketing remark (636 chars)

   ! Some !! located just a block from the water ~ NAS is just 10 minutes away from front gate or back gate ~ Downtown P'Cola is just 15 minutes away ~ Perdido Key is also just 15 minutes away What I love about the home What I Love About this Home Is just About Everything. So Convenient to Everything, Beaches, stores, Downtown Pensacola and The Navy Base. Every Tuesday enjoy The Blue Angel's Practice Show in The Comfort of Your Yard! Grass is Always Green and The Yard Is So Easy to Keep Up with. New Updats Through out. Not To Mention the Best Carpet On the Market and The Padding also! Neighbors are all So Very Nice and Friendly.

10. 2017-10-02
    soldstatus $141,000
11. 2017-09-29
    soldstatus $141,000 632-char remark

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    New roof ~ Beautiful brick home in a fabulous and desirable location ~ Open floor plan with cathedral ceilings, plant ledges, tile floors ~ Large Living Room ~ Open Kitchen with beautiful cabinetry, tiled floors and breakfast bar ~ large master suite ~ master bath features walk in closets, garden tub, double vanity, tile floors ~ formal dining room ~ covered patio in rear of home ~ 2 car garage ~ ~ located just a block from the water ~ NAS is just 10 minutes away from front gate or back gate ~ Downtown P'Cola is just 15 minutes away ~ Perdido Key is also just 15 minutes away ***Buyer to verify all dimensions and features***

12. 2017-07-13
    listed $143,900 632-char remark

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    New roof ~ Beautiful brick home in a fabulous and desirable location ~ Open floor plan with cathedral ceilings, plant ledges, tile floors ~ Large Living Room ~ Open Kitchen with beautiful cabinetry, tiled floors and breakfast bar ~ large master suite ~ master bath features walk in closets, garden tub, double vanity, tile floors ~ formal dining room ~ covered patio in rear of home ~ 2 car garage ~ ~ located just a block from the water ~ NAS is just 10 minutes away from front gate or back gate ~ Downtown P'Cola is just 15 minutes away ~ Perdido Key is also just 15 minutes away ***Buyer to verify all dimensions and features***

13. 2008-12-15
    soldstatus $126,900
14. 2008-12-12
    soldstatus $126,500
15. 2008-06-10
    listed $125,000
16. 2008-05-26
    historical
17. 2007-11-26
    listed $145,000
18. 2005-05-13
    soldstatus $161,500
19. 2005-05-11
    soldstatus $161,500
20. 2005-04-06
    listed $164,500
21. 2003-03-21
    soldstatus $113,095
22. 2002-08-29
    listed $106,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,573 · $131/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,166 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: +$593/yr (+$49/mo · 37.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 85% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,746
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,620
• − Property taxes: −$1,573
• − Insurance: −$2,102
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,380
• − Management: −$2,380
• − Depreciation: −$7,593
• Taxable loss: −$902
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$216
• After-tax cash flow: $3,615/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Warrington

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #631
• US rank: #12396

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warrington, FL
• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,226
• Household income: $73,540
• Rent vs Own: 34.6% rent · 65.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1175.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 10% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.23%
• Current HPI: 548.03
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.22%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+144.2% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — PARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $261,000 PARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $262,500 PARMLS
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $265,000 PARMLS
• 2025-12-04 Listed $270,000 PARMLS
• 2018-11-15 Sold (Public Records) $156,000 Public Records
• 2018-11-15 Sold (MLS) $156,000 PARMLS
• 2018-09-27 Listed $160,000 PARMLS
• 2017-10-02 Sold (Public Records) $141,000 Public Records
• 2017-09-29 Sold (MLS) $141,000 PARMLS
• 2017-07-13 Listed $143,900 PARMLS
• 2008-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $126,900 Public Records
• 2008-12-12 Sold (MLS) $126,500 PARMLS
• 2008-06-10 Listed $125,000 PARMLS
• 2008-05-26 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2007-11-26 Listed $145,000 PARMLS
• 2005-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $161,500 Public Records
• 2005-05-11 Sold (MLS) $161,500 PARMLS
• 2005-04-06 Listed $164,500 PARMLS
• 2003-03-21 Sold (MLS) $113,095 PARMLS
• 2002-08-29 Listed $106,900 PARMLS

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,573 · +14.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.