4 Eastman Ter #1 · Poughkeepsie, NY 12601

$550,000

None bd · None ba · 4,488 sqft · MultiFamily · 78 Days on market

Built 1900 3,485 sqft lot Est $489k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.9/15.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

One of the most historic buildings in the city of Poughkeepsie. Four one bedroom apts first floor apt is a duplex, this building is a great buy rents are under market. Building needs some repairs, roof is newer. Elec is 600 amp service. Great for investors. Accepted offer 05/03/2024

Key facts

• 3,485 sq ft lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 78 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 1-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $550k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-533/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $396k (28.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $346k (37.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $346k (37.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#165 in NY, #2,577 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Poughkeepsie City School District (suburban): math 29% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #559 of 590 in NY (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Poughkeepsie Middle School (math 8% / reading 37%, grade F, #650 of 729 statewide, top 90%, 877 students, 82% FRL); Poughkeepsie High School (math 59% / reading 67%, grade B-, #819 of 1,100 statewide, top 74%, 1,165 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 195 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,463/mo this rent would consume 65% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 2891% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($517k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $346,300 (37.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
4. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
5. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.30%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $489,192
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
61-63 Franklin St	0.09mi	1/1.0	4,650 (+4%)	6mo	$500,000	$108	85
59 Montgomery St	0.18mi	3/2.0	3,976 (-11%)	6mo	$330,000	$83	67
18 Hooker Ave	0.38mi	8/8.0	4,640 (+3%)	16mo	$800,000	$172	64
33 Virginia Ave	0.51mi	4/4.0	5,055 (+13%)	2mo	$550,000	$109	54
89 S Cherry St	0.65mi	6/2.0	5,016 (+12%)	7mo	$455,000	$91	44
22 Forbus St	0.57mi	7/5.0	3,848 (-14%)	8mo	$828,000	$215	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.00×
• Total profit: $-154,562
• Equity at exit: $82,007

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.38×
• Total profit: $-211,957
• Equity at exit: $47,554

Cash invested: $154,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12601

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 195
• Price-to-rent: 26.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,463 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,884
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$688 /mo · $8,250/yr
• Insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$727
• Net cashflow: $-1,065

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,811

Max offer price $395,870

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-685	-5% $-875	+0% $-1,065	+5% $-1,255	+10% $-1,445
Rent	-10% $-1,339	-5% $-1,202	+0% $-1,065	+5% $-928	+10% $-792
Rate	-1.0pp $-788	-0.5pp $-925	base $-1,065	+0.5pp $-1,208	+1.0pp $-1,353

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	1	1	$3,464
Total (2 units)			$3,463

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $137,500
• Closing costs: $16,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
85 Cannon St Unit 2 Poughkeepsie, NY	1.0	2.0	3596	$2,800	$0.78	45d	1	0.44mi
144 Mansion St #5 Poughkeepsie, NY	1.0	1.0	5269	$1,550	$0.29	45d	1	0.76mi
52 Parker Ave Unit 2 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	3900	$2,000	$0.51	23d	1	1.01mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2024-06-05
   status Pending
2. 2024-03-18
   listed $550,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,556
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,809
• − Property taxes: −$8,250
• − Insurance: −$2,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,324
• − Management: −$3,324
• − Depreciation: −$16,000
• Taxable loss: −$22,902
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,496
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,286/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Poughkeepsie City School District
• NCES district ID: 3623760
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $39,159
• Composite: 29.68/100
• National rank: #6459
• State rank: #559 of 590 in NY

Livability — Poughkeepsie

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #165
• US rank: #2577

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime F Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poughkeepsie, NY
• County: Dutchess County · 188,048 people
• City population: 86,468
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 44,164
• Household income: $63,652
• Rent vs Own: 56.8% rent · 43.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2891.0

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 24% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -210.62%
• Current HPI: 293.9789
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2024-06-05 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-18 Listed $550,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid