8851 Rt 9 · Chazy, NY 12921

$110,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 78 Days on market

Built 1957 1.10 ac lot $82/sqft · 40% below area Est $184k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• Appreciation +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity for investors or buyers looking for a project. This property is being sold as is through Auction and is currently occupied. No interior access is available. Do not trespass on property. Buyer is responsible for all due diligence. Please visit auction.com for details, bidding instructions and important dates. Don't miss this opportunity to purchase at auction.

Key facts

• 1.1 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1957

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $211 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $103k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#595 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Chazy Union Free School District (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #175 of 755 in NY (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 192 units permitted in Clinton County in 2024 (64 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.5% local appreciation)).
• Clinton County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $103,400 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.20%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $183,720
• List price: $110,000
• Delta: -40.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8752 Route 9	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,452 (+8%)	9mo	$170,000	$117	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $35,564
• Equity at exit: $58,901

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.17×
• Total profit: $97,612
• Equity at exit: $98,923

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12921

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,248 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$153 /mo · $1,835/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $211

Break-even live

Break-even rent $982

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $110,000 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $110,000 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $110,000 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $110,000 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-03-30
    listed $120,000 Active 381-char remark

    Show marketing remark (381 chars)

    Great opportunity for investors or buyers looking for a project. This property is being sold as is through Auction and is currently occupied. No interior access is available. Do not trespass on property. Buyer is responsible for all due diligence. Please visit auction.com for details, bidding instructions and important dates. Don't miss this opportunity to purchase at auction.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,835 · $153/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,847 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: +$12/yr (+$1/mo · 0.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,980
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,835
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,198
• − Management: −$1,198
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $836
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$201
• After-tax cash flow: $2,326/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chazy Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3607170
• Math proficiency: 72% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $59,672
• Composite: 60.32/100
• National rank: #1727
• State rank: #175 of 755 in NY

Livability — Chazy

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #595
• US rank: #10841

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,771
• Population (ZIP): 2,771

Population outlook (Clinton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 78,791 people
• By 2030: 76,848 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 71,579 · -9.2%
• By 2050: 66,471 · -15.6%
• By 2075: 57,361 · -27.2%
• By 2100: 47,232 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 13% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clinton

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.9% · R 51.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.1pp toward R · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: -2.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.2 2020: D+5.2 2016: D+0.9 2012: D+25.6 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.48%
• Current HPI: 270.1358
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed $120,000 Global MLS

Property tax history

-2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,835 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.