6205 Buckthorn Dr · Midland, TX 79705

$204,950

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,005 sqft · SingleFamily · 3 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The 1,000 square-foot Victoria floor plan is a smart, comfortable start to homeownership with features that make everyday living easy. Brick and vinyl exterior with covered entryLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasGranite or quartz countertopsKitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet

Key facts

• Covered entry
• Parking
• Built 2026

Tags

• BRICK AND VINYL EXTERIOR
• COVERED ENTRY
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• GRANITE OR QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Active listing; List price available (not included here as financial detail)

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space
• Utilities: Has heating and cooling
• Home design: Spec new construction (Priscilla plan)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1005

Interior

• Kitchen: Includes dishwasher, garbage disposal, and microwave
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $349 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $205k).
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, commute D+.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 452 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,950

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.30%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-11,916
• Equity at exit: $30,559

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $14,400
• Equity at exit: $17,720

Cash invested: $57,386 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79705

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 452
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,235 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$256 /mo · $3,074/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $349

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,793

Max offer price $204,950

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,238
• Closing costs: $6,148
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6220 Kingsville St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1312	$2,400	$1.83	13d	1	0.12mi
5917 Praline St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$2,500	$2.00	21d	1	0.24mi
2912 Pitchfork Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1119	$2,100	$1.88	21d	1	0.28mi
2808 Lighthouse Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1168	$2,300	$1.97	44d	1	0.31mi
2808 Longfellow Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1422	$2,400	$1.69	21d	1	0.31mi
5817 Settler Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1421	$2,600	$1.83	44d	1	0.60mi
6333 Poppy Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,500	$1.85	21d	1	0.78mi
6105 Poppy Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1421	$2,700	$1.90	44d	1	0.81mi
6812 Brush Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,500	$1.72	13d	1	1.19mi
6809 Brush Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1466	$2,500	$1.71	13d	1	1.19mi
1704 Rattler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,500	$1.67	21d	1	1.22mi
1310 Wrangler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1387	$2,400	$1.73	21d	1	1.46mi
1412 Mockingbird Ln Midland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	959	$2,014	$2.10	13d	22	1.48mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $204,950 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   remarks 346-char remark
3. 2026-06-13
   listed $204,950 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,820
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,480
• − Property taxes: −$3,074
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,146
• − Management: −$2,146
• − Depreciation: −$5,962
• Taxable income: $987
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$237
• After-tax cash flow: $3,955/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a modern floor plan and well-maintained exterior. It is ready for a new owner and can be enhanced with minor updates to boost its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5938
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midland

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #2192

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midland, TX
• County: Midland County · 168,494 people
• City population: 168,494
• Metro: Midland, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,653
• Household income: $105,310
• Rent vs Own: 28.8% rent · 71.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1557.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 20% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -300.44%
• Current HPI: 207.2904
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.56%
• Metro: Midland, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B