3449 Sayers Rd · Allisonia, VA 24324

$49,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,149 sqft · SingleFamily · 154 Days on market

Built 1920 0.70 ac lot $43/sqft · 78% below area ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor opportunity in Draper, VA. This Cape Cod–style home offers 3 bedrooms and a traditional layout with room to add value. The property is being sold as-is and presents an ideal project for buyers looking to update and reimagine a home with strong potential. Bring your vision and creativity to make this property shine.

Key facts

• 0.7 acre lot
• Built 1920
• Listed 153 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $399 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#533 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living B; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pulaski County Public School District (rural): math 48% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #86 of 131 in VA (top 66%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Pulaski County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pulaski County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $50k implies a 177% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.03%
• DSCR: 3.00
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $224,856
• List price: $49,900
• Delta: -77.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3463 Sayers Rd	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,016 (-12%)	3mo	$265,000	$261	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.25×
• Total profit: $17,406
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.45×
• Total profit: $48,182
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24324

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,058 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $346/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$222
• Net cashflow: $399

Break-even live

Break-even rent $553

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $427	-5% $413	+0% $399	+5% $385	+10% $371
Rent	-10% $316	-5% $357	+0% $399	+5% $441	+10% $483
Rate	-1.0pp $424	-0.5pp $412	base $399	+0.5pp $386	+1.0pp $373

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $49,900 Active 154 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,900 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,900 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,900 Active 151 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,900 Active 150 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $49,900 Active 148 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,900 Active 147 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $49,900 Active 145 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,900 Active 144 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $49,900 Active 143 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,900 Active 142 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $49,900 Active 139 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,900 Active 137 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,900 Active 136 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 135 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $49,900 Active 134 DOM
17. 2026-03-28
    price $53,000 331-char remark

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    Investor opportunity in Draper, VA. This Cape Cod–style home offers 3 bedrooms and a traditional layout with room to add value. The property is being sold as-is and presents an ideal project for buyers looking to update and reimagine a home with strong potential. Bring your vision and creativity to make this property shine.

18. 2026-01-16
    listed $58,000 Active 331-char remark

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    Investor opportunity in Draper, VA. This Cape Cod–style home offers 3 bedrooms and a traditional layout with room to add value. The property is being sold as-is and presents an ideal project for buyers looking to update and reimagine a home with strong potential. Bring your vision and creativity to make this property shine.

19. 2024-07-18
    soldstatus $18,000
20. 2000-09-14
    soldstatus $70,003

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $346 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $409 · $34/mo
• Expected delta: +$63/yr (+$5/mo · 18.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone A · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,693
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$346
• − Insurance: −$1,752
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,015
• − Management: −$1,015
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $4,317
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,036
• After-tax cash flow: $3,753/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pulaski County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103150
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -31.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $44,912
• Composite: 45.98/100
• National rank: #2537
• State rank: #86 of 131 in VA

Livability — Allisonia

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #533
• US rank: #24398

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime C+ Employment D- Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,442

Population outlook (Pulaski County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,949 people
• By 2030: 31,812 · -3.5%
• By 2040: 29,224 · -11.3%
• By 2050: 26,691 · -19.0%
• By 2075: 21,312 · -35.3%
• By 2100: 15,697 · -52.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Black 7% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pulaski

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.7) · D 27.3% · R 72.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.1pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -44.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.7 2020: R+41.5 2016: R+40.7 2012: R+24.8 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -22.99%
• Current HPI: 167.7798
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-24.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $53,000 NRVMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listed $58,000 NRVMLS
• 2024-07-18 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records
• 2000-09-14 Sold (Public Records) $70,003 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $346 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.