464 Ormsbee St · Big Lake, MN 55309

$180,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,208 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1950 1.09 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming home located in Big Lake. Enjoy the comfort of a bright living area, open kitchen with ample storage, big bedrooms and a finished basement. The backyard has a great space for outdoor activities and relaxation. Conveniently situated in a desirable neighborhood, this home provides easy access to local amenities and schools. Don't miss the opportunity to add some TLC and make this delightful property your own.

Key facts

• Bright living area
• Finished basement
• Backyard space

Tags

• BRIGHT LIVING AREA
• OPEN KITCHEN
• FINISHED BASEMENT
• BACKYARD SPACE
• EASY ACCESS TO AMENITIES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Well water; Septic system (not compliant); Natural gas
• Home design: Residential property; Two-story home; Entry level: Main; Above-grade finished area and total living area reported
• Construction: Foundation: concrete perimeter; Foundation area reported
• Exterior features: Stucco exterior; Vinyl exterior; Approximately 1.09-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (most on main level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Finished basement; Concrete perimeter foundation; Two levels
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $701 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $177k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 4.2% in Big Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#84 in MN, #1,950 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Big Lake Public School District (town): math 47% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #78 of 301 in MN (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 126 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 334 units permitted in Sherburne County in 2024 (58 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $180k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $177,300 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.68%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $15,518
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $71,243
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55309

• Home prices YoY: -30.7%
• Active inventory: 126
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,524 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$275 /mo · $3,298/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $701

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,638

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
603 William St Big Lake, MN	3.0	3.0	1750	$1,925	$1.10	18d	1	0.53mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $180,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $190,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $190,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $190,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    remarks 435-char remark
11. 2026-06-02
    listed $190,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,298 · $275/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,298 · $275/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,293
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$3,298
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,423
• − Management: −$2,423
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $5,929
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,423
• After-tax cash flow: $6,983/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Big Lake Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2705460
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $75,817
• Composite: 46.06/100
• National rank: #2519
• State rank: #78 of 301 in MN

Livability — Big Lake

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #84
• US rank: #1950

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Big Lake, MN
• County: Sherburne County · 120,363 people
• City population: 21,378
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 21,378
• Household income: $121,711
• Rent vs Own: 9.4% rent · 90.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 90.0

Population outlook (Sherburne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,402 people
• By 2030: 99,341 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 101,188 · +3.9%
• By 2050: 99,214 · +1.9%
• By 2075: 88,700 · -8.9%
• By 2100: 72,241 · -25.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Romanian 6% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Sherburne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.9) · D 31.7% · R 66.6% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.7pp toward R · 2008: -18.2pp · 2024: -34.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.9 2020: R+32.6 2016: R+37.0 2012: R+22.1 2008: R+18.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.02%
• Current HPI: 238.8781
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+163.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $190,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Listed $190,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $190,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-12 Listed $205,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-02-16 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-02-02 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-11-02 Listed $58,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-11-02 Listed $225,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,298 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.