382 Lucia Way · Plum Grove, TX 77327

$156,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,033 sqft · SingleFamily · 50 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $152/sqft · at area comps Est $162k · at est. $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW in the Santa Fe Village Community! Lennar Broadview Collection "Windrow" Plan with Elevation "A". This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom, walk-in closet and direct access to the backyard space. There are two secondary bedrooms that are both ideal for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• DIRECT ACCESS TO BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $157k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $207 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $157k).
• Recommended offer: $152k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 5.0% in Plum Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($152k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $152,280 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.64%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $161,863
• List price: $156,990
• Delta: -3.01%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
382 Lucia Way	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,033 (0%)	0mo	$156,990	$152	100
385 Lucia Way	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,049 (+2%)	1mo	$170,991	$163	96

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-10,580
• Equity at exit: $23,408

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $14,862
• Equity at exit: $13,574

Cash invested: $43,957 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,647 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$823
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$196 /mo · $2,355/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $207

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,386

Max offer price $156,990

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,248
• Closing costs: $4,710
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1192 Road 57071 Cleveland, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$950	$0.95	1d	1	0.63mi
203 Road 5248 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	910	$1,680	$1.85	15d	1	0.98mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 544-char remark

   Show marketing remark (544 chars)

   NEW in the Santa Fe Village Community! Lennar Broadview Collection "Windrow" Plan with Elevation "A". This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom, walk-in closet and direct access to the backyard space. There are two secondary bedrooms that are both ideal for household members and overnight guests.

2. 2026-05-14
   price $156,990 544-char remark

   Show marketing remark (544 chars)

   NEW in the Santa Fe Village Community! Lennar Broadview Collection "Windrow" Plan with Elevation "A". This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom, walk-in closet and direct access to the backyard space. There are two secondary bedrooms that are both ideal for household members and overnight guests.

3. 2026-04-28
   price $130,990 544-char remark

   Show marketing remark (544 chars)

   NEW in the Santa Fe Village Community! Lennar Broadview Collection "Windrow" Plan with Elevation "A". This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom, walk-in closet and direct access to the backyard space. There are two secondary bedrooms that are both ideal for household members and overnight guests.

4. 2026-04-20
   price $133,590 544-char remark

   Show marketing remark (544 chars)

   NEW in the Santa Fe Village Community! Lennar Broadview Collection "Windrow" Plan with Elevation "A". This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom, walk-in closet and direct access to the backyard space. There are two secondary bedrooms that are both ideal for household members and overnight guests.

5. 2026-04-17
   price $135,740 544-char remark

   Show marketing remark (544 chars)

   NEW in the Santa Fe Village Community! Lennar Broadview Collection "Windrow" Plan with Elevation "A". This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom, walk-in closet and direct access to the backyard space. There are two secondary bedrooms that are both ideal for household members and overnight guests.

6. 2026-04-13
   price $137,890 544-char remark

   Show marketing remark (544 chars)

   NEW in the Santa Fe Village Community! Lennar Broadview Collection "Windrow" Plan with Elevation "A". This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom, walk-in closet and direct access to the backyard space. There are two secondary bedrooms that are both ideal for household members and overnight guests.

7. 2026-04-01
   price $142,690 544-char remark

   Show marketing remark (544 chars)

   NEW in the Santa Fe Village Community! Lennar Broadview Collection "Windrow" Plan with Elevation "A". This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom, walk-in closet and direct access to the backyard space. There are two secondary bedrooms that are both ideal for household members and overnight guests.

8. 2026-03-31
   price $144,990 544-char remark

   Show marketing remark (544 chars)

   NEW in the Santa Fe Village Community! Lennar Broadview Collection "Windrow" Plan with Elevation "A". This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom, walk-in closet and direct access to the backyard space. There are two secondary bedrooms that are both ideal for household members and overnight guests.

9. 2026-03-25
   listed $156,990 Active 544-char remark

   Show marketing remark (544 chars)

   NEW in the Santa Fe Village Community! Lennar Broadview Collection "Windrow" Plan with Elevation "A". This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom, walk-in closet and direct access to the backyard space. There are two secondary bedrooms that are both ideal for household members and overnight guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,769
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,794
• − Property taxes: −$2,355
• − Insurance: −$785
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,582
• − Management: −$1,582
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$4,567
• Taxable loss: −$15
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4
• After-tax cash flow: $2,482/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-level home in the Santa Fe Village Community is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a spacious open floorplan and a well-maintained exterior, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and adds modern appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and adds modern appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1206
• US rank: #21049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $156,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $130,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $133,590 HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $135,740 HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $137,890 HARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $142,690 HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $144,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $156,990 HARMLS