223 Walnut Dr · Burkburnett, TX 76354

$144,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,771 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 129 Days on market

Built 1959 $82/sqft · 29% below area Est $204k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lots of room in this 4 bedroom home with 2 living areas. Pretty rock fireplace in the den, 2 sheds in the backyard and covered patio. 2 car carport, covered front porch. Lots of potential for this home.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Rock fireplace
• Covered patio

Tags

• ROCK FIREPLACE
• 2 SHEDS
• COVERED PATIO
• COVERED FRONT PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $797 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#345 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, schools D.
• Burkburnett ISD (town): math 35% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #529 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 231 units permitted in Wichita County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wichita County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.58%
• DSCR: 2.05
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $204,396
• List price: $144,900
• Delta: -29.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $27,447
• Equity at exit: $21,605

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.22×
• Total profit: $89,882
• Equity at exit: $12,528

Cash invested: $40,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76354

• Home prices YoY: -34.5%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$357 /mo · $4,289/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $797

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,491

Max offer price $144,900

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,225
• Closing costs: $4,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
805 Aztec Dr Burkburnett, TX	3.0	2.0	2178	$2,500	$1.15	43d	1	0.89mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $144,900 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $144,900 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $144,900 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $144,900 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $144,900 Active 125 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $144,900 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $144,900 Active 122 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $144,900 Active 120 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $144,900 Active 119 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $144,900 Active 118 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $144,900 Active 117 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $144,900 Active 114 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $144,900 Active 113 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $144,900 Active 112 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $144,900 Active 111 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $144,900 Active 110 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $144,900 Active 109 DOM
18. 2026-02-10
    listed $154,900 Active 202-char remark

    Show marketing remark (202 chars)

    Lots of room in this 4 bedroom home with 2 living areas. Pretty rock fireplace in the den, 2 sheds in the backyard and covered patio. 2 car carport, covered front porch. Lots of potential for this home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,289 · $357/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,289 · $357/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,117
• − Property taxes: −$4,289
• − Insurance: −$724
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,400
• − Management: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$4,215
• Taxable income: $7,854
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,885
• After-tax cash flow: $7,683/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Burkburnett ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812120
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,346
• Composite: 29.44/100
• National rank: #6519
• State rank: #529 of 826 in TX

Livability — Burkburnett

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #345
• US rank: #7548

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Burkburnett, TX
• Population (ZIP): 11,822

Population outlook (Wichita County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 129,638 people
• By 2030: 128,366 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 124,466 · -4.0%
• By 2050: 120,499 · -7.0%
• By 2075: 113,884 · -12.2%
• By 2100: 101,818 · -21.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Iranian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wichita

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.0) · D 27.5% · R 71.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.2pp toward R · 2008: -38.9pp · 2024: -44.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.0 2020: R+41.1 2016: R+49.7 2012: R+47.1 2008: R+38.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.48%
• Current HPI: 166.3827
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-10 Listed $154,900 WFAOR

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,289 · +10.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.