13 S Main St · Stockton, NJ 08559

$469,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,612 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1907 4,356 sqft lot $292/sqft · 23% below area Est $608k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming Victorian in the heart of Stockton. From the moment you enter, you're welcomed into a light-filled living space with wood floors and abundant original architectural details. The gracious living room boasts floor-to-ceiling windows and flows seamlessly into a cozy dining room; featuring a bay window—perfect for enjoying meals bathed in natural sunlight. This home has an ample sized kitchen with stainless steel appliances and plenty of counter space. A glass door opens onto a tranquil backyard, with a tiered patio, ideal for entertaining or quiet relaxation. The serene, wooded backdrop offers the perfect setting for the terraced garden beds and backs to acres of preserved land for unparalleled privacy. Additional highlights include a convenient first-floor laundry room and powder room. Upstairs, the vaulted-ceiling primary bedroom includes a bonus loft—ideal for a home office, reading nook, or private retreat. Two additional bedrooms and a full bath complete the second level. Located just steps from the D & R Canal towpath. Be part of the vibrant Stockton rivertown scene or take the short ride to Lambertville, Frenchtown or New Hope. Don’t miss your chance to own this Stockton gem—schedule your private tour today!

Key facts

• Wood floors
• Bay window
• Cozy dining room

Tags

• LIGHT FILLED LIVING SPACE
• WOOD FLOORS
• ORIGINAL ARCHITECTURAL DETAILS
• FLOOR TO CEILING WINDOWS
• COZY DINING ROOM
• BAY WINDOW

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $470k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $600 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $470k).
• Recommended offer: $456k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 0.3% in Stockton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#451 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• South Hunterdon Regional School District (rural): math 13% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #335 of 472 in NJ (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 389 units permitted in Hunterdon County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hunterdon County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($456k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $176k; list at $470k implies a 167% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1907 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $455,803 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1907 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.07%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $607,857
• List price: $469,900
• Delta: -22.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7 S Railroad Ave	0.05mi	3/1.5	1,700 (+6%)	3mo	$503,000	$296	86
8 S Main St	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,449 (-10%)	11mo	$600,000	$414	69
15 S Main St	0.01mi	3/1.0	1,760 (+9%)	22mo	$460,000	$261	64
2 Broad St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,848 (+15%)	7mo	$630,000	$341	58
7126 Upper York Rd	0.53mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,482 (-8%)	1mo	$392,500	$265	54
2957 River Rd	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,778 (+10%)	12mo	$535,000	$301	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-37,822
• Equity at exit: $70,064

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $16,796
• Equity at exit: $40,628

Cash invested: $131,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08559

• Home prices YoY: -21.1%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,464
• Tax from tax record: −$624 /mo · $7,488/yr
• Insurance: −$196
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,050
• Net cashflow: $600

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,241

Max offer price $469,900

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $117,475
• Closing costs: $14,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2976 River Rd New Hope, PA	2.0	2.5	2000	$5,000	$2.50	7d	1	0.36mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 1268-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1268 chars)

   Charming Victorian in the heart of Stockton. From the moment you enter, you're welcomed into a light-filled living space with wood floors and abundant original architectural details. The gracious living room boasts floor-to-ceiling windows and flows seamlessly into a cozy dining room; featuring a bay window—perfect for enjoying meals bathed in natural sunlight. This home has an ample sized kitchen with stainless steel appliances and plenty of counter space. A glass door opens onto a tranquil backyard, with a tiered patio, ideal for entertaining or quiet relaxation. The serene, wooded backdrop offers the perfect setting for the terraced garden beds and backs to acres of preserved land for unparalleled privacy. Additional highlights include a convenient first-floor laundry room and powder room. Upstairs, the vaulted-ceiling primary bedroom includes a bonus loft—ideal for a home office, reading nook, or private retreat. Two additional bedrooms and a full bath complete the second level. Located just steps from the D & R Canal towpath. Be part of the vibrant Stockton rivertown scene or take the short ride to Lambertville, Frenchtown or New Hope. Don’t miss your chance to own this Stockton gem—schedule your private tour today!

2. 2026-05-01
   price $469,900 1268-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1268 chars)

   Charming Victorian in the heart of Stockton. From the moment you enter, you're welcomed into a light-filled living space with wood floors and abundant original architectural details. The gracious living room boasts floor-to-ceiling windows and flows seamlessly into a cozy dining room; featuring a bay window—perfect for enjoying meals bathed in natural sunlight. This home has an ample sized kitchen with stainless steel appliances and plenty of counter space. A glass door opens onto a tranquil backyard, with a tiered patio, ideal for entertaining or quiet relaxation. The serene, wooded backdrop offers the perfect setting for the terraced garden beds and backs to acres of preserved land for unparalleled privacy. Additional highlights include a convenient first-floor laundry room and powder room. Upstairs, the vaulted-ceiling primary bedroom includes a bonus loft—ideal for a home office, reading nook, or private retreat. Two additional bedrooms and a full bath complete the second level. Located just steps from the D & R Canal towpath. Be part of the vibrant Stockton rivertown scene or take the short ride to Lambertville, Frenchtown or New Hope. Don’t miss your chance to own this Stockton gem—schedule your private tour today!

3. 2026-03-31
   listed $479,900 Active 1268-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1268 chars)

   Charming Victorian in the heart of Stockton. From the moment you enter, you're welcomed into a light-filled living space with wood floors and abundant original architectural details. The gracious living room boasts floor-to-ceiling windows and flows seamlessly into a cozy dining room; featuring a bay window—perfect for enjoying meals bathed in natural sunlight. This home has an ample sized kitchen with stainless steel appliances and plenty of counter space. A glass door opens onto a tranquil backyard, with a tiered patio, ideal for entertaining or quiet relaxation. The serene, wooded backdrop offers the perfect setting for the terraced garden beds and backs to acres of preserved land for unparalleled privacy. Additional highlights include a convenient first-floor laundry room and powder room. Upstairs, the vaulted-ceiling primary bedroom includes a bonus loft—ideal for a home office, reading nook, or private retreat. Two additional bedrooms and a full bath complete the second level. Located just steps from the D & R Canal towpath. Be part of the vibrant Stockton rivertown scene or take the short ride to Lambertville, Frenchtown or New Hope. Don’t miss your chance to own this Stockton gem—schedule your private tour today!

4. 2026-01-08
   historical
5. 2025-12-01
   price $469,900
6. 2025-08-20
   price $479,000
7. 2025-07-14
   listed $499,900 Active
8. 2014-02-05
   soldstatus $176,000
9. 2011-11-11
   historical
10. 2011-07-18
    listed $259,000
11. 2010-10-18
    historical
12. 2010-08-02
    listed $299,000
13. 2007-01-15
    historical
14. 2006-09-10
    historical
15. 2006-09-09
    listed $345,000
16. 2006-07-10
    listed $415,000
17. 2003-05-08
    soldstatus $250,000
18. 1987-09-30
    soldstatus $165,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,488 · $624/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,594 · $800/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,106/yr (+$176/mo · 28.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $60,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,322
• − Property taxes: −$7,488
• − Insurance: −$3,147
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,800
• − Management: −$4,800
• − Depreciation: −$13,670
• Taxable loss: −$227
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$54
• After-tax cash flow: $7,249/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Hunterdon Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3400769
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $82,621
• Composite: 27.54/100
• National rank: #6948
• State rank: #335 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #451
• US rank: #17026

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stockton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 4,608

Population outlook (Hunterdon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,644 people
• By 2030: 121,131 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 117,753 · -4.0%
• By 2050: 112,601 · -8.2%
• By 2075: 104,371 · -14.9%
• By 2100: 93,364 · -23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 3% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Hunterdon

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.7) · D 45.7% · R 52.4% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.7pp toward D · 2008: -13.3pp · 2024: -6.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.7 2020: R+4.4 2016: R+13.8 2012: R+18.8 2008: R+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.54%
• Current HPI: 204.2604
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+184.8% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $469,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $479,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-08 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-01 Price Changed $469,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-20 Price Changed $479,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-14 Listed $499,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-02-05 Sold (MLS) $176,000 GSMLS
• 2011-11-11 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-07-18 Listed $259,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-10-18 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-08-02 Listed $299,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-01-15 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-09-10 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-09-09 Listed $345,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-07-10 Listed $415,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2003-05-08 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records
• 1987-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,488 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.