411 NW Dearborn · Lawton, OK 73507

$70,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,388 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1939 7,535 sqft lot Est $128k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor opportunity, tenant occupied incoming producing duplex.

Key facts

• 7,535 sq ft lot
• Listed 47 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Natural gas available; Public sewer
• Home design: Duplex residential income property; One story
• Construction: Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Publicly maintained road access; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Oven
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating
• Interior features: Refrigerator; Oven
• Laundry & utility: No laundry hookups indicated

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $70,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$127,696) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $627 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.0% vs local median 6.1% in Lawton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#206 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, crime F.
• Lawton (urban): math 20% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #137 of 270 in OK (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 208 active listings in the ZIP; 133 units permitted in Comanche County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comanche County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.2% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $70k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $67,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.92% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.38%
• DSCR: 2.71
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $127,696
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
606 NW Columbia Ave	0.19mi	4/2.0	1,500 (+8%)	5mo	$119,900	$80	74
706 NW Euclid	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (+1%)	10mo	$43,500	$31	73
506 NW Bell	0.20mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,500 (+8%)	3mo	$140,000	$93	68
206 NW 7th St	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (+8%)	8mo	$65,000	$43	62
511 NW Bell Ave	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-14%)	2mo	$150,000	$125	62
803 NW Arlington Ave	0.41mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,300 (-6%)	2mo	$215,000	$165	60
711 NW Dearborn Ave	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,300 (-6%)	14mo	$165,000	$127	60
911 NW Columbia Ave	0.46mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,300 (-6%)	2mo	$120,000	$92	57
1203 NW Dearborn	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (+1%)	12mo	$85,500	$61	52
1116 NW Columbia Ave	0.66mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,400 (+1%)	13mo	$45,000	$32	48
708 NW Laird Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (+1%)	15mo	$128,400	$92	47
1106 NW Elm Ave	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (+8%)	4mo	$149,000	$99	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.25% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $24,947
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.01×
• Total profit: $59,017
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73507

• Home prices YoY: -23.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 208
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,346 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $484/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $627

Break-even live

Break-even rent $553

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-03-30
   listed $70,000 Active
4. 2015-10-05
   soldstatus $35,000
5. 2005-03-28
   soldstatus $17,000
6. 2002-05-19
   soldstatus $13,000
7. 2001-05-01
   soldstatus $17,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $484 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $630 · $52/mo
• Expected delta: +$146/yr (+$12/mo · 30.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,153
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$484
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,292
• − Management: −$1,292
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $6,777
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,627
• After-tax cash flow: $5,896/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawton
• NCES district ID: 4017250
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $42,618
• Composite: 19.68/100
• National rank: #8732
• State rank: #137 of 270 in OK

Livability — Lawton

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #15131

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lawton, OK
• County: Comanche County · 96,361 people
• City population: 89,233
• Metro: Lawton, OK
• Population (ZIP): 21,046
• Household income: $62,132
• Rent vs Own: 42.1% rent · 57.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 979.0

Population outlook (Comanche County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 124,518 people
• By 2030: 124,231 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 122,193 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 120,368 · -3.3%
• By 2075: 120,492 · -3.2%
• By 2100: 123,113 · -1.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 13% Black 13% Native American 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Comanche

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.3) · D 37.4% · R 60.7% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: -17.5pp · 2024: -23.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.3 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+23.7 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.48%
• Current HPI: 127.057
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.25%
• Metro: Lawton, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+300.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — LBRMLS
• 2026-04-01 Contingent — LBRMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $70,000 LBRMLS
• 2015-10-05 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 2005-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records
• 2002-05-19 Sold (Public Records) $13,000 Public Records
• 2001-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $17,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $484 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.