None · Lake City, TX 78368

$210,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · SingleFamily · 9 Days on market

Built 2026 0.52 ac lot Est $162k · 30% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• Appreciation +7.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

New- Ready to move in! Large open floor plan. Roomy bedrooms, with large closets. Includes new dishwasher, stove, refrigerator. Also New Water well and Septic. Sites on 2 large lots. Call for more information

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• New stove
• New septic

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• NEW DISHWASHER
• NEW STOVE
• NEW REFRIGERATOR
• NEW WATER WELL
• NEW SEPTIC

Property features AI

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic available; Water available
• Home design: Single-story; New construction
• Construction: Metal roof; Slab foundation; New construction
• Exterior features: No notable exterior features listed; Smoke detectors

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Garbage disposal
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Laminate flooring
• Laundry & utility: Dryer hookup; Dryer (appliance listed)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-155 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $183k (13.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (35.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (35.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,180 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Mathis ISD (town): math 29% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #528 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 344 units permitted in San Patricio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (4.4% local appreciation)).
• San Patricio County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,723 (35.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.15%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $161,616
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
101 4th St	0.28mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,266 (-13%)	8mo	$99,000	$78	50
224 Lakeview Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,443 (-1%)	19mo	$280,000	$194	48
121 2nd St	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,310 (-10%)	19mo	$145,000	$111	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.39% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $31,189
• Equity at exit: $111,290

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $106,291
• Equity at exit: $185,977

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78368

• Home prices YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,357 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $456/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $-155

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,553

Max offer price $182,695

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $210,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   remarks 210-char remark
9. 2026-06-10
   listed $210,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $456 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,843 · $320/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,387/yr (+$282/mo · 742.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,287
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$456
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,303
• − Management: −$1,303
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$5,698
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,367
• After-tax cash flow: $-487/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mathis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829400
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,954
• Composite: 29.47/100
• National rank: #6509
• State rank: #528 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lake City

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1180
• US rank: #20606

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake City, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,474

Population outlook (San Patricio County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,538 people
• By 2030: 79,575 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 87,670 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 96,107 · +27.2%
• By 2075: 117,984 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 130,010 · +72.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 61% White 33% Two or more races 32%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 39%

Political lean MEDSL · San Patricio

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.4% · R 67.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.6pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+29.1 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+16.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.39%
• Current HPI: 98.6577
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $210,000 CBMLS
• 2009-01-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1990-09-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+10.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $456 · -28.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.