296 Vista Conejo · Thousand Oaks, CA 91320

$399,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 19 Days on market

Built 1973 Good condition Est $354k · 13% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.6/30.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• ARV discount +1.8/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Rare 3-Bedroom Home with Privacy, Views & Resort-Style Living in Vallecito 55+ Gated Community Nestled against open space with breathtaking natural views, this rare 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers approximately 1,440 sq. ft. of comfortable living in the highly desirable Vallecito 55+ gated community. Designed with an open-concept floor plan, the home features laminate flooring throughout, smooth drywall & ceilings, recessed lighting, dual-pane windows, and abundant natural light. The spacious living room showcases a large picture window overlooking the private deck and serene open space beyond, it flows seamlessly into the dining area and beautifully updated kitchen. The kitche

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 1973

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Washer, dryer and refrigerator included; Pet restrictions disclosed; Rent control disclosed; Property is Active Under Contract; Possession at close of escrow; Standard listing conditions
• Financial info: Listing accepts Conventional and Cash offers; Land is lease type: lease
• HOA & community: Senior community; Association pet rules

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car carport (not attached)
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s); Gated community
• Utilities: Private pool is heated and filtered
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home (Brookwood model, Bendix); Single-level entry with steps; Facing/entry at ground level with steps
• Construction: Siding exterior (including aluminum and vinyl); Shingle roof; Raised foundation with pier jacks; Built in 1973
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Covered patio; Additional porch/other covered outdoor area; Double-pane windows with screens; Private heated and filtered pool; Spa; Aluminum skirt; Gated community; Community security features; Updated/remodeled condition; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Gas range/oven
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heating present
• Interior features: Quartz counters; Recessed lighting; French doors
• Laundry & utility: Separate laundry room inside; Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $399k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $390 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $398k (0.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $393k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.8% in Thousand Oaks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#226 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Conejo Valley Unified (urban): math 57% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #59 of 517 in CA (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 144 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,759 units permitted in Ventura County in 2024 (1,196 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($149k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ventura County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($393k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $393,015 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.19%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $354,240
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
296 Vista Conejo	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$399,000	$277	99
10 La Lomita #0	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	8mo	$250,000	$174	83
252 El Gallardo	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,428 (-1%)	3mo	$350,000	$245	83
249 El Gallardo	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	6mo	$340,000	$236	81
277 Monte Vis	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	11mo	$360,000	$250	81
238 Vista Conejo	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	10mo	$334,000	$249	80
24 La Encina	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	2mo	$330,000	$246	79
188 La Reina #188	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	10mo	$267,000	$199	78
272 Monte Vis	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,348 (-6%)	3mo	$372,000	$276	76
19 La Encina #0	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	8mo	$399,000	$260	75
46 La Encina	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	7mo	$190,000	$141	69
110 La Fortuna #110	0.31mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (-2%)	10mo	$260,000	$185	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-50,315
• Equity at exit: $59,492

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-52,580
• Equity at exit: $34,498

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 91320

• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 144
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,984 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$499 /mo · $5,985/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$837
• Net cashflow: $390

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,490

Max offer price $399,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1194 Vista Canyon Ln Newbury Park, CA	3.0	3.0	1384	$3,800	$2.75	43d	1	0.15mi
1194 Vista Conyon #17 Newbury Park, CA	3.0	2.5	1384	$3,800	$2.75	23d	1	0.15mi
3444 Melvin Ct Newbury Park, CA	3.0	2.0	1308	$3,600	$2.75	10d	1	0.93mi
198 San Vincente Cir Newbury Park, CA	2.0	2.0	1334	$3,500	$2.62	43d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-12
   historical Active Under Contract
2. 2026-05-08
   listed $399,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,803
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$5,985
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,824
• − Management: −$3,824
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable loss: −$1,783
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$428
• After-tax cash flow: $5,104/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a fresh paint job and updated kitchen. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for value increase through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Resale Replace countertops — Updated countertops add value and functionality
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices improve convenience and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Resale Replace countertops — Updated countertops add value and functionality ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices improve convenience and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conejo Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0609640
• Math proficiency: 57% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $100,413
• Composite: 59.57/100
• National rank: #914
• State rank: #59 of 517 in CA

Livability — Thousand Oaks

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #226
• US rank: #7364

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Thousand Oaks, CA
• County: Ventura County · 829,955 people
• City population: 121,704
• Metro: Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA
• Population (ZIP): 43,472
• Household income: $148,991
• Rent vs Own: 23.9% rent · 76.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 756.0

Population outlook (Ventura County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 895,754 people
• By 2030: 912,134 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 931,454 · +4.0%
• By 2050: 934,609 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 924,899 · +3.3%
• By 2100: 864,712 · -3.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 16% Asian 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ventura

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 56.1% · R 41.0% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.8pp toward D · 2008: 12.3pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+21.1 2016: D+16.8 2012: D+5.3 2008: D+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -917.39%
• Current HPI: 283.6467
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.30%
• Metro: Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Contingent — CSMAR
• 2026-05-08 Listed $399,000 CSMAR