Courtland II Plan · Otsego, MN 55301

$448,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,280 sqft · SingleFamily · 222 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new two-story home showcases a modern design with a finished lower-level, featuring a recreation room and bedroom with the option to include a full bathroom. On the main-level Great Room and dining room are beautiful vaulted ceilings, which is complemented by a kitchen with a center island and a flex space that offers endless possibilities. The luxe owner's suite and two secondary bedrooms are located on the uppermost level, while a fourth bedroom ideal for overnight guests is situated on the lower one.

Key facts

• 3 garage spots
• Listed 222 days

🏗️ New construction. The $448,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $488,654.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $449k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-944 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $352k (21.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $308k (31.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $308k (31.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#367 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Independent School District 728 (suburban): math 56% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #37 of 301 in MN (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Otsego Elementary (math 64% / reading 64%, grade B, #157 of 857 statewide, top 19%, 563 students, 21% FRL); Rogers Middle School (math 61% / reading 63%, grade B+, #19 of 258 statewide, top 8%, 979 students, 16% FRL); Rogers Senior High (math 66% / reading 64%, grade B, #28 of 471 statewide, top 6%, 1,740 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools at 18% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 243 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 54d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,260 units permitted in Wright County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wright County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 222 days — a 12% lower offer ($395k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $308,013 (31.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 222 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.28%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $488,654
• List price: $448,990
• Delta: -8.12%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 9 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12087 80th St NE	1.03mi	4/3.0	2,600 (+14%)	1mo	$445,000	$171	37
12273 71st Ct NE	0.69mi	4/4.0	2,402 (+5%)	28mo	$497,370	$207	31
7303 Kalland Cir NE	1.03mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,086 (-8%)	22mo	$310,000	$149	23
8061 Lander Ave NE	1.06mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,505 (+10%)	27mo	$453,100	$181	20
11293 83rd Ln NE	1.24mi	4/3.5	2,810 (+23%)	26mo	$749,990	$267	14
11305 83rd Ln NE	1.23mi	4/4.0	2,821 (+24%)	24mo	$699,990	$248	12

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-139,240
• Equity at exit: $72,860

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.45×
• Total profit: $-198,451
• Equity at exit: $42,250

Cash invested: $136,823 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 62 active · 48 under contract
• Median asking: $455,495 ($197/sqft)
• Median days on market: 66 d
• This list price: 32% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +8.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 55301

• Home prices YoY: -14.2%
• Active inventory: 243
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,080 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,563
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$611 /mo · $7,330/yr
• Insurance: −$204
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$647
• Net cashflow: $-944

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,275

Max offer price $352,103

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-606	-5% $-775	+0% $-944	+5% $-1,113	+10% $-1,281
Rent	-10% $-1,187	-5% $-1,065	+0% $-944	+5% $-822	+10% $-700
Rate	-1.0pp $-698	-0.5pp $-819	base $-944	+0.5pp $-1,070	+1.0pp $-1,199

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $122,163
• Closing costs: $14,660
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7535 Lannon Ave NE Albertville, MN	5.0	3.0	2209	$3,099	$1.40	54d	1	0.56mi
11193 68th St NE Unit NA Albertville, MN	3.0	3.0	2644	$3,250	$1.23	81d	1	0.59mi
6452 MacLaren Ave NE Unit 1 Otsego, MN	3.0	2.0	2977	$2,250	$0.76	0d	1	0.71mi
6452 Maclaren Ave NE Otsego, MN	3.0	2.5	2977	$2,550	$0.86	27d	1	0.71mi
6138 Manchester Ave NE Otsego, MN	3.0	3.0	1600	$2,295	$1.43	0d	1	1.05mi
6044 Manchester Ave NE Albertville, MN	3.0	3.0	1600	$2,295	$1.43	63d	1	1.12mi
11447 55th St NE Albertville, MN	3.0	2.0	1943	$2,000	$1.03	55d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $448,990 Active 222 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $448,990 Active 221 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $448,990 Active 220 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $448,990 Active 219 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $448,990 Active 218 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $448,990 Active 217 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $448,990 Active 216 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $448,990 Active 215 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $448,990 Active 214 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $448,990 Active 213 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $448,990 Active 212 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $448,990 Active 211 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $448,990 Active 210 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $448,990 Active 204 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $448,990 Active 203 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    pricedays on market $448,990 Active 202 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $446,990 Active 199 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $446,990 Active 197 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $446,990 Active 196 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $446,990 Active 195 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $446,990 Active 194 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $446,990 Active 193 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $446,990 Active 192 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $446,990 Active 191 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $446,990 Active 190 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $446,990 Active 189 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $446,990 Active 188 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $446,990 Active 187 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $446,990 Active 186 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $446,990 Active 185 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $446,990 Active 184 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $446,990 Active 183 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $446,990 Active 182 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $446,990 Active 181 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $446,990 Active 180 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $446,990 Active 179 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $446,990 Active 178 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $446,990 Active 177 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $446,990 Active 176 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $446,990 Active 174 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $446,990 Active 173 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $446,990 Active 172 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    pricedays on market $446,990 Active 171 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $445,990 Active 168 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $445,990 Active 166 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    pricedays on market $445,990 Active 165 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $444,990 Active 163 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $444,990 Active 161 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $444,990 Active 160 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $444,990 Active 159 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,962
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,372
• − Property taxes: −$7,330
• − Insurance: −$2,443
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,957
• − Management: −$2,957
• − Depreciation: −$14,215
• Taxable loss: −$20,313
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,875
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,449/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This modern two-story home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with minimal maintenance required. The home's curb appeal and interior design make it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading appliances can attract more buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgrading fixtures can make bathrooms more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Flooring in bathrooms — Upgrading flooring can make bathrooms more appealing to potential buyers. ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 64/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Otsego Elementary B MN #157/857 Nat'l #5,798/41,679 Middle Rogers Middle School B+ MN #19/258 Nat'l #1,545/14,009 High Rogers Senior High B MN #28/471 Nat'l #2,785/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Independent School District 728
• NCES district ID: 2711370
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $82,336
• Composite: 52.5/100
• National rank: #1567
• State rank: #37 of 301 in MN

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Otsego

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #367
• US rank: #8641

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Otsego, MN
• County: Wright County · 142,526 people
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 13,482
• Household income: $129,232
• Rent vs Own: 8.6% rent · 91.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 22% of renters

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Population outlook (Wright County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 142,526 people
• By 2030: 146,915 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 153,625 · +7.8%
• By 2050: 155,416 · +9.0%
• By 2075: 150,352 · +5.5%
• By 2100: 130,631 · -8.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 7% · South Korea, China, Canada

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Political lean MEDSL · Wright

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.4) · D 34.4% · R 63.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.4pp · 2024: -29.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.4 2020: R+28.6 2016: R+33.2 2012: R+21.4 2008: R+17.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.52%
• Current HPI: 233.6299
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+0.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $473,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $472,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $471,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-01 Price Changed $470,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-13 Listed $469,990 Zillow