2221 Marshall Dr · Burleson, TX 76058

$244,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,302 sqft · SingleFamily · 68 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $188/sqft · at area comps Est $243k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new home is conveniently laid out on a single floor for maximum comfort and convenience. At its heart stands an open-concept layout connecting a spacious family room, a multi-functional kitchen and lovely dining area. The owner's suite is situated in a private corner and comes complete with an adjoining bathroom, while the two secondary bedrooms are located near the foyer.

Key facts

• Private corner
• Adjoining bathroom
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• MULTI-FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• PRIVATE CORNER
• ADJOINING BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $264 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $245k).
• Recommended offer: $230k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.5% in Burleson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#53 in TX, #2,133 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Joshua ISD (rural): math 52% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #139 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: H D Staples El (math 44% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,462 of 4,322 statewide, top 34%, 435 students, 65% FRL); R C Loflin Middle (math 41% / reading 45%, grade D-, #540 of 1,662 statewide, top 33%, 730 students, 55% FRL); Joshua H S (math 67% / reading 15%, grade F, #774 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 1,242 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 503 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($230k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $230,299 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.62%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $242,989
• List price: $244,999
• Delta: 0.83%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2200 Doc Holiday Rd	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,302 (0%)	3mo	$246,999	$190	90
2124 Jesse James Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,311 (+1%)	2mo	$238,999	$182	89
2128 Jesse James Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+12%)	2mo	$229,999	$157	78
2152 Jesse James Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+11%)	2mo	$228,999	$158	72
2144 Jesse James Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+12%)	3mo	$219,849	$150	70
1001 Lanes	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-2%)	1mo	$229,000	$179	68
2133 W Fm 917	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,456 (+12%)	11mo	$245,000	$168	50
2428 County Road 911	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,442 (+11%)	3mo	$390,000	$270	48
5815 Thousand Oaks Dr	0.67mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,316 (+1%)	15mo	$227,250	$173	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-22,847
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,911
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 15 active · 10 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.0 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $245,499 ($173/sqft)
• Median days on market: 8 d
• This list price: 47% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +8.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76058

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Active inventory: 503
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,477 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$306 /mo · $3,675/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$520
• Net cashflow: $264

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,143

Max offer price $244,999

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $433	-5% $349	+0% $264	+5% $179	+10% $95
Rent	-10% $68	-5% $166	+0% $264	+5% $362	+10% $460
Rate	-1.0pp $387	-0.5pp $326	base $264	+0.5pp $201	+1.0pp $136

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1620 Glade Meadows Dr Joshua, TX	3.0	2.0	1788	$2,375	$1.33	0d	1	0.55mi
1612 Caddo Peak Trl Joshua, TX	3.0	3.0	1504	$2,650	$1.76	59d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $244,999 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $244,999 Active 67 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $244,999 Active 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $244,999 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $244,999 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $244,999 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $244,999 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $244,999 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $244,999 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $244,999 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $244,999 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $244,999 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $244,999 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-05-06
    price $244,999 380-char remark
15. 2026-04-22
    price $226,999 380-char remark
16. 2026-04-11
    listed $229,999 Active 380-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,729
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$3,675
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,378
• − Management: −$2,378
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$779
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$187
• After-tax cash flow: $3,355/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and some landscaping to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
• Both Window treatments — Improves energy efficiency and enhances home's curb appeal ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 42/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary H D Staples El F TX #1,462/4,322 Nat'l #19,009/41,679 Middle R C Loflin Middle D- TX #540/1,662 Nat'l #5,160/14,009 High Joshua H S F TX #774/1,632 Nat'l #7,961/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Joshua ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824930
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,696
• Composite: 44.65/100
• National rank: #2769
• State rank: #139 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 79/100

Livability — Burleson

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #2133

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Burleson, TX
• County: Johnson · 179,678 people
• City population: 81,549
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,531
• Household income: $66,719
• Rent vs Own: 26.8% rent · 73.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.22%
• Current HPI: 265.6513
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B