86 S 1st St E · Downey, ID 83234

$249,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 964 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1950 0.29 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Cash flow +4.4/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.29 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1950

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 car); Concrete and gravel parking surfaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family detached residence
• Construction: Frame, stucco, and metal siding construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Chain link fencing / fenced yard; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range / Oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Freezer
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (1 on the main level)
• Interior features: Finished basement; Garden (exterior-accessible feature); Electric water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry located in the basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-650 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $135k (46.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $103k (58.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $103k (58.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#138 in ID) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Marsh Valley Joint District (rural): math 49% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #16 of 92 in ID (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Downey Elementary School (math 44% / reading 54%, grade D, #148 of 357 statewide, top 47%, 96 students, 38% FRL); Marsh Valley Middle School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C+, #27 of 109 statewide, top 24%, 188 students, 25% FRL); Marsh Valley High School (math 27% / reading 62%, grade F, #61 of 169 statewide, top 41%, 405 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 325 units permitted in Bannock County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (7.8% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $102,882 (58.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.41% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.16%
• DSCR: 0.50
• GRM: 20.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.8% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $58,112
• Equity at exit: $186,227

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.85×
• Total profit: $198,986
• Equity at exit: $366,531

Cash invested: $69,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Idaho: 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+18
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; minimal tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 83234

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 20.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,029 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,308
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $605/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$216
• Net cashflow: $-650

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,852

Max offer price $134,679

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-509	-5% $-579	+0% $-650	+5% $-721	+10% $-791
Rent	-10% $-731	-5% $-691	+0% $-650	+5% $-609	+10% $-569
Rate	-1.0pp $-524	-0.5pp $-587	base $-650	+0.5pp $-715	+1.0pp $-780

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,375
• Closing costs: $7,485
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-05
   listed $249,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ID · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $605 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,722 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,117/yr (+$93/mo · 184.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,346
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,976
• − Property taxes: −$605
• − Insurance: −$1,248
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$988
• − Management: −$988
• − Depreciation: −$7,258
• Taxable loss: −$12,716
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,052
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,748/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marsh Valley Joint District
• NCES district ID: 1601950
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,741
• Composite: 47.46/100
• National rank: #2280
• State rank: #16 of 92 in ID

Livability — Downey

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #13581

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Downey, ID
• Population (ZIP): 1,646

Population outlook (Bannock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 86,173 people
• By 2030: 86,575 · +0.5%
• By 2040: 86,235 · +0.1%
• By 2050: 86,090 · -0.1%
• By 2075: 85,032 · -1.3%
• By 2100: 85,103 · -1.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 7% Native American 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 15% Slovak 9% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bannock

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.1) · D 35.8% · R 60.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.1pp toward R · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -25.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.1 2020: R+21.9 2016: R+20.5 2012: R+22.1 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.80%
• Current HPI: 267.2069
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ID)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$79B
▸Technology	1	$25B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$6B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — PCTMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $249,500 PCTMLS

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $605 · -20.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.