13887 La Porte Rd · Clipper Mills, CA 95981

$200,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,300 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 123 Days on market

Built 1948 8.78 ac lot $87/sqft · 19% below area Est $247k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Own a genuine piece of California Gold Rush history the remains of Eagleville, the 1850s foothill hideaway First settled in 1851, this was the miners' headquarters where grizzlies roamed. The town boasted a hotel, store, barbershop, school, and a thriving community that later included the North Star Hotel along La Porte Road. Tales of Indian burial mounds and covered-wagon traffic only add to the allure. Today, this exact 8.78-acre parcel is your rare chance to step into that story and write the next chapter. At the heart of it all stands a 1948 rustic cabin with great construction quality for the time and undeniable charm 2,300 sq ft, 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, built into the hillside with

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Wood stove
• Full basement

Tags

• 1948 RUSTIC CABIN
• FULL BASEMENT
• WOOD STOVE
• EXTERIOR WOOD SIDING
• METAL ROOF
• FORESTED SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $94 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#976 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, employment B, housing B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marysville Joint Unified (suburban): math 14% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #455 of 517 in CA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 750 units permitted in Yuba County in 2024 (41 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Yuba County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $160k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,122 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.02%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $247,388
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -19.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $30,040
• Equity at exit: $89,929

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $98,481
• Equity at exit: $138,591

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95981

• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,701 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,411/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $94

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,582

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $200,000 Active 123 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 122 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 121 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 120 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 119 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $200,000 Active 117 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 116 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $200,000 Active 114 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 113 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $200,000 Active 112 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 111 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $200,000 Active 108 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 107 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 106 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 105 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $200,000 Active 104 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $225,000 Active 103 DOM
18. 2024-01-19
    soldstatus $160,000
19. 2023-11-04
    historical
20. 2023-05-06
    listed $195,000 Active
21. 2020-05-07
    soldstatus $126,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,411 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,520 · $127/mo
• Expected delta: +$109/yr (+$9/mo · 7.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 4 d/yr ≥91°F today · 9 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 38 unhealthy d/yr today · 41 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,415
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,411
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,633
• − Management: −$1,633
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$2,284
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$548
• After-tax cash flow: $1,679/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marysville Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0624090
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $44,598
• Composite: 18.18/100
• National rank: #8961
• State rank: #455 of 517 in CA

Livability — Clipper Mills

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #976
• US rank: #24598

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A Employment B Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 60

Population outlook (Yuba County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,432 people
• By 2030: 75,358 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 74,643 · -1.0%
• By 2050: 72,937 · -3.3%
• By 2075: 66,368 · -12.0%
• By 2100: 54,524 · -27.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%

Political lean MEDSL · Yuba

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.8) · D 35.7% · R 61.5% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -14.7pp · 2024: -25.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.8 2020: R+21.6 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+19.5 2008: R+14.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+27.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2024-01-19 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 2023-11-04 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2023-05-06 Listed $195,000 CRMLS
• 2020-05-07 Sold (Public Records) $126,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,411 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.