3009 Canandaigua Trl · Lakeland, FL 33810

$226,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Manufactured public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1988 10,751 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great location, off Galloway Rd and near Lakeland Square Mall. Dead end street with other similar homes. Split plan, carport, also has outside utility room and shed. Washer and dryer hookups inside the home. Carport with concrete drive, front covered patio. Bring your bank qualification for a quick response from the seller.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1988

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished; Living area about 1,080 square feet; Total building area reported as 1,080 square feet; Located on approximately 0.25 acre (total acreage listed as 1/4 to less than 1/2)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; North-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation
• Exterior features: Asphalt road access; Lot dimensions 80 x 134; Lot size approximately 0.25 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Kitchen and family room combo
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $227k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $11 ($136/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (17.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dr. Ne Roberts Elementary School (math 45% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,513 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 691 students, 54% FRL); Kathleen Middle School (math 28% / reading 28%, grade F, #486 of 571 statewide, top 86%, 821 students, 68% FRL); Kathleen Senior High School (math 19% / reading 31%, grade F, #501 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 2,051 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 511 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $227k implies a 139% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,415 (17.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.21%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-36,497
• Equity at exit: $33,832

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-32,689
• Equity at exit: $19,618

Cash invested: $63,532 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33810

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 511
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,864 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,190
• Tax from tax record: −$177 /mo · $2,123/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $11

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,850

Max offer price $226,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $140	-5% $76	+0% $11	+5% $-53	+10% $-117
Rent	-10% $-136	-5% $-62	+0% $11	+5% $85	+10% $159
Rate	-1.0pp $126	-0.5pp $69	base $11	+0.5pp $-47	+1.0pp $-107

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,725
• Closing costs: $6,807
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3230 J and J Manor Rd Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.0	1056	$1,700	$1.61	5d	1	0.35mi
3122 Julia Ct Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	1097	$1,450	$1.32	5d	1	0.71mi
3211 Julia Ct Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	938	$1,395	$1.49	25d	1	0.79mi
1906 Griffin Rd Lakeland, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1148	$2,339	$2.04	5d	11	1.25mi
1846 Masters Ln Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1487	$1,800	$1.21	23d	1	1.42mi
3276 Mount Tabor Rd Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	896	$1,195	$1.33	4d	1	1.46mi
3276 Mount Tabor Rd Lot 28 Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	896	$1,295	$1.45	4d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-06-22
   statusdays on market $226,900 Pending 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $226,900 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $226,900 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $226,900 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $227,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $227,000 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $227,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $227,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $227,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $227,000 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $227,000 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $227,000 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $227,000 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $227,000 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $227,000 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-06
    listed $235,000 Active
17. 2026-02-16
    soldstatus $95,000
18. 2026-01-30
    soldstatus $70,000
19. 2021-09-29
    status Pending
20. 2021-09-29
    historical
21. 2021-08-23
    status Active
22. 2021-07-25
    status Pending
23. 2021-07-19
    status Active
24. 2021-07-09
    status Pending
25. 2021-06-26
    price $149,900
26. 2021-06-07
    price $151,900
27. 2021-04-26
    price $162,900
28. 2021-04-16
    listed $167,900 Active
29. 2017-10-20
    soldstatus $67,900 Sold 325-char remark

    Show marketing remark (325 chars)

    Great location, off Galloway Rd and near Lakeland Square Mall. Dead end street with other similar homes. Split plan, carport, also has outside utility room and shed. Washer and dryer hookups inside the home. Carport with concrete drive, front covered patio. Bring your bank qualification for a quick response from the seller.

30. 2017-10-06
    status Pending 325-char remark

    Show marketing remark (325 chars)

    Great location, off Galloway Rd and near Lakeland Square Mall. Dead end street with other similar homes. Split plan, carport, also has outside utility room and shed. Washer and dryer hookups inside the home. Carport with concrete drive, front covered patio. Bring your bank qualification for a quick response from the seller.

31. 2017-09-22
    status Active 325-char remark

    Show marketing remark (325 chars)

    Great location, off Galloway Rd and near Lakeland Square Mall. Dead end street with other similar homes. Split plan, carport, also has outside utility room and shed. Washer and dryer hookups inside the home. Carport with concrete drive, front covered patio. Bring your bank qualification for a quick response from the seller.

32. 2017-09-17
    status Pending 325-char remark

    Show marketing remark (325 chars)

    Great location, off Galloway Rd and near Lakeland Square Mall. Dead end street with other similar homes. Split plan, carport, also has outside utility room and shed. Washer and dryer hookups inside the home. Carport with concrete drive, front covered patio. Bring your bank qualification for a quick response from the seller.

33. 2017-08-25
    listed $67,900 Active 325-char remark

    Show marketing remark (325 chars)

    Great location, off Galloway Rd and near Lakeland Square Mall. Dead end street with other similar homes. Split plan, carport, also has outside utility room and shed. Washer and dryer hookups inside the home. Carport with concrete drive, front covered patio. Bring your bank qualification for a quick response from the seller.

34. 2017-02-09
    soldstatus $33,100 Sold
35. 2017-01-19
    status Pending
36. 2017-01-05
    price $44,000
37. 2016-12-08
    price $49,500
38. 2016-10-19
    listed $55,000 Active
39. 2001-09-13
    soldstatus $60,100
40. 1988-04-01
    soldstatus $39,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,123 · $177/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,123 · $177/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,370
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,710
• − Property taxes: −$2,123
• − Insurance: −$1,134
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,790
• − Management: −$1,790
• − Depreciation: −$6,601
• Taxable loss: −$3,778
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$907
• After-tax cash flow: $1,042/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,137
• Household income: $69,986
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1208.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.94%
• Current HPI: 320.7366
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+502.6% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $235,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-16 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2026-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2021-09-29 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-29 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-23 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-25 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-19 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-26 Price Changed $149,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-07 Price Changed $151,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-26 Price Changed $162,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-16 Listed $167,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-20 Sold (MLS) $67,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-09-22 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-09-17 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-08-25 Listed $67,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-02-09 Sold (MLS) $33,100 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-01-19 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-01-05 Price Changed $44,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-12-08 Price Changed $49,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-19 Listed $55,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-09-13 Sold (Public Records) $60,100 Public Records
• 1988-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,123 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.