18572 Palmer Creek Dr · Lyman, MS 39574

$57,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1998 1.10 ac lot Est $57k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.2/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Multiple offers have been presented on this awesome property! Seller requests all interested parties submit their best offers no later than Friday 5/22 at noon. Situated privately on 1 acre down a shaded drive, this 2-bed 2 bath home is tucked away in the quiet calm of its natural surroundings. The land reflects the many years of care and creativity that were poured into the creation of a park like setting. Winding paths, mature landscaping, birdbaths, garden areas, and layers of established greenery give this property a character all its own. The front porch overlooks a canopy of trees that make neighbors seem far removed. Inside, the home offers a split floor plan with large primary bedro

Key facts

• Park like setting
• Shaded drive
• Winding paths

Tags

• 1 ACRE
• SHADED DRIVE
• PARK LIKE SETTING
• WINDING PATHS
• MATURE LANDSCAPING
• GARDEN AREAS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (mobile home); One level; Belmont model
• Construction: Vinyl exterior; Shingle roof; Built in public records (year built source)
• Exterior features: Garden; Shed(s); Landscaped lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; Total 2 bathrooms (1.75 total)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer/Dryer; Laundry area in kitchen; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $58k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $887 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $58k).
• Cap rate 24.8% vs local median 4.4% in Lyman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#47 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Harrison County School District (rural): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #14 of 130 in MS (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 126 active listings in the ZIP; 2,194 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $398 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harrison County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $57,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 66.12%
• DSCR: 3.94
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $57,120
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18572 Palmer Creek Dr	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,120 (0%)	0mo	$57,500	$51	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 65.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.93×
• Total profit: $47,206
• Equity at exit: $8,573

10-year hold

• IRR: 69.7%
• Equity multiple: 8.08×
• Total profit: $113,957
• Equity at exit: $4,972

Cash invested: $16,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39574

• Home prices YoY: -23.8%
• Active inventory: 126
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,626 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$302
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$72 /mo · $862/yr
• Insurance: −$24
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $887

Break-even live

Break-even rent $503

Max offer price $57,500

Occupancy floor 40%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $927	-5% $907	+0% $887	+5% $867	+10% $847
Rent	-10% $759	-5% $823	+0% $887	+5% $951	+10% $1,016
Rate	-1.0pp $916	-0.5pp $902	base $887	+0.5pp $872	+1.0pp $857

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,375
• Closing costs: $1,725
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-18
   listed $57,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,511
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,221
• − Property taxes: −$862
• − Insurance: −$288
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,561
• − Management: −$1,561
• − Depreciation: −$1,673
• Taxable income: $10,345
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,483
• After-tax cash flow: $8,162/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801770
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,504
• Composite: 41.66/100
• National rank: #3419
• State rank: #14 of 130 in MS

Livability — Lyman

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #47
• US rank: #8189

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,830

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,444 people
• By 2030: 241,942 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 267,531 · +17.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +27.4%
• By 2075: 346,711 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 378,165 · +65.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Black 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Italian 5% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.0% · R 63.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+25.2 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.24%
• Current HPI: 206.218
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-05-18 Listed $57,500 MLSU