4150 E State Hwy 20 · Nice, CA 95464

$225,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,464 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1981 4,792 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

That view. Clear Lake stretching out in front of you, Mount Konocti on the horizon, and a price tag that makes serious investors stop scrolling. At $225,000, 4150 E Highway 20 is one of those rare Lake County opportunities where the numbers can really work if you bring the right vision and the right contractor. This three-level multi-unit property sits on a single parcel in Nice with lake views from multiple rooms, a massive covered carport, a fenced yard, and more square footage than most people expect at this price. The upper level features a large open living area with updated LVP flooring, mini split systems, a spacious kitchen with granite counters, stainless appliances, a built-in ref

Key facts

• Two unit property
• Fenced yard
• Updated flooring

Tags

• CLEAR LAKE VIEWS
• MOUNT KONOCTI BACKDROP
• TWO UNIT PROPERTY
• LARGE COVERED CARPORT
• FENCED YARD
• UPDATED FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property contains 2 total units; No common walls between units
• HOA & community: Community features include watersports, hiking, fishing, mountainous terrain, lake access, and a rural setting

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces (2 parking spaces total)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Water connected (District/Public); Sewer connected
• Home design: Two stories; Entry level: 1; No accessory dwelling unit
• Construction: Year built reported by assessor
• Exterior features: House structure; No pool; Lot roughly 0–1 unit per acre

Interior

• Bedrooms: Bedrooms located on both upper and lower levels
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood; Laminated
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Ductless heating; Ductless cooling
• Interior features: Two-level interior; Entry at Burpee; Has a view; Main level contains 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area in the garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $872 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $225k).
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 5.1% in Nice — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#652 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Upper Lake Unified (rural): math 17% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #433 of 517 in CA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 10 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $225k implies a 105% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.62%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $803,264
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4355 E Highway 20	0.20mi	4/3.0	2,304 (-6%)	20mo	$750,000	$326	58
3753 Lakeview Dr	0.59mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,324 (-6%)	11mo	$247,000	$106	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $19,059
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $87,974
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95464

• Home prices YoY: -20.2%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,900 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$145 /mo · $1,740/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$609
• Net cashflow: $872

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,796

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3201 Springe St Unit 3 Nice, CA	5.0	3.0	2950	$2,900	$0.98	43d	1	1.00mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $225,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $225,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-12
   listed $225,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,740 · $145/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,740 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 9 d/yr ≥99°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 36 unhealthy d/yr today · 39 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$1,740
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,784
• − Management: −$2,784
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable income: $7,218
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,732
• After-tax cash flow: $8,736/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Upper Lake Unified
• NCES district ID: 0601442
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $35,872
• Composite: 20.24/100
• National rank: #8624
• State rank: #433 of 517 in CA

Livability — Nice

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #652
• US rank: #20328

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B- Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nice, CA
• City population: 2,417
• Population (ZIP): 2,417

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,396 people
• By 2030: 60,626 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 56,453 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 53,054 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 47,663 · -23.6%
• By 2100: 41,804 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 29% Native American 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.2% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 19.3pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+6.3 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.76%
• Current HPI: 177.0701
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+32.4% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $225,000 CRMLS
• 2026-06-10 Coming Soon $225,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $274,900 CRMLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $274,900 BAREIS
• 2026-01-05 Listed $284,500 BAREIS
• 2026-01-05 Listed $284,500 CRMLS
• 2025-12-16 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-11-10 Listed $285,500 BAREIS
• 2025-10-18 Listed $285,500 CRMLS
• 2014-12-01 Sold (MLS) $110,000 CRMLS
• 2014-11-14 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2014-10-24 Price Changed $120,000 CRMLS
• 2014-09-02 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2014-08-24 Pending — CRMLS
• 2014-06-05 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2014-06-05 Price Changed $139,900 CRMLS
• 2014-06-05 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2014-04-29 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2014-04-28 Delisted — CRMLS
• 2014-03-19 Price Changed $149,900 CRMLS
• 2014-01-23 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2014-01-22 Delisted — CRMLS
• 2013-10-14 Price Changed $159,999 CRMLS
• 2013-09-04 Listed $170,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,740 · +13.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.