424 Vine St · Baird, TX 79504

$105,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,263 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1960 4,095 sqft lot Est $148k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Non traditional floor plan, huge room built for master is used for den with wet bar and opens to back yard, kitchen- dining- living has fireplace. 2 or 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, one car garage. Lot is irregular shape..

Key facts

• Built in storage
• Natural light
• Bar area

Tags

• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• BAR AREA
• OPEN KITCHEN
• NATURAL LIGHT
• BUILT IN STORAGE
• BACKYARD READY FOR SUMMER FUN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Possession at closing/funding; Survey available
• Financial info: Accepts cash and conventional financing
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Garage faces front; 2-car single door; Inside entrance; 1 covered parking space; Garage approximately 13' wide by 23' long
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; One story; Built in 1960; Subdivision: Railroad - Baird
• Construction: Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Less than 0.5-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (main level) with walk-in closet; Two additional bedrooms (main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Ceiling fan(s); Wall/window unit(s); Other heating
• Interior features: High-speed internet available; Paneling; Walk-in closet(s); One living area; One dining area; Room count: 5; One-level home
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area; Washer included; Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $103k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#195 in TX, #4,977 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Baird ISD (rural): math 40% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #731 of 1,141 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Baird El (math 47% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 169 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Callahan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($726 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (7.7% local appreciation)).
• Callahan County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (7.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,425 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.55%
• DSCR: 3.12
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $147,771
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
317 W 7th St	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,233 (-2%)	5mo	$105,000	$85	84
441 Race St	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,237 (-2%)	15mo	$183,900	$149	79
341 Callowhill St	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,284 (+2%)	21mo	$149,900	$117	72
533 Poplar St	0.14mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,312 (+4%)	19mo	$165,000	$126	62
940 Market St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,322 (+5%)	24mo	$155,000	$117	52
717 W 3rd St	0.27mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,114 (-12%)	14mo	$120,000	$108	50
500 Peyton St	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,092 (-14%)	11mo	$100,000	$92	47
1040 N Ross Dr	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,260 (-0%)	18mo	$160,000	$127	46
1264 W 3rd St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,356 (+7%)	22mo	$134,900	$99	42
725 E 6th St	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,130 (-10%)	9mo	$160,000	$142	40
808 Cherry St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,362 (+8%)	18mo	$59,900	$44	39
408 Stella	0.70mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,184 (-6%)	17mo	$62,400	$53	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.74% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 58.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.94×
• Total profit: $115,762
• Equity at exit: $77,924

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.1%
• Equity multiple: 10.55×
• Total profit: $280,816
• Equity at exit: $152,950

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79504

• Home prices YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,423 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$155 /mo · $1,858/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$509
• Net cashflow: $1,165

Break-even live

Break-even rent $948

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $105,000 Pending 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $105,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $105,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $105,000 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $105,000 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $105,000 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $105,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $105,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-05-13
   listed $120,000 Active
10. 2021-12-20
    soldstatus
11. 2021-12-17
    soldstatus Sold 213-char remark

    Show marketing remark (213 chars)

    Non traditional floor plan, huge room built for master is used for den with wet bar and opens to back yard, kitchen- dining- living has fireplace. 2 or 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, one car garage. Lot is irregular shape..

12. 2021-12-14
    status Pending 213-char remark

    Show marketing remark (213 chars)

    Non traditional floor plan, huge room built for master is used for den with wet bar and opens to back yard, kitchen- dining- living has fireplace. 2 or 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, one car garage. Lot is irregular shape..

13. 2021-11-18
    historical Active Option Contract 213-char remark

    Show marketing remark (213 chars)

    Non traditional floor plan, huge room built for master is used for den with wet bar and opens to back yard, kitchen- dining- living has fireplace. 2 or 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, one car garage. Lot is irregular shape..

14. 2021-11-05
    listed $69,000 Active 213-char remark

    Show marketing remark (213 chars)

    Non traditional floor plan, huge room built for master is used for den with wet bar and opens to back yard, kitchen- dining- living has fireplace. 2 or 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, one car garage. Lot is irregular shape..

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,858 · $155/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,922 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: +$64/yr (+$5/mo · 3.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,075
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$1,858
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,326
• − Management: −$2,326
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $13,104
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,145
• After-tax cash flow: $10,834/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baird ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809280
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,351
• Composite: 36.29/100
• National rank: #9407
• State rank: #731 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Baird

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #4977

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baird, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,995

Population outlook (Callahan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,664 people
• By 2030: 13,578 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 13,283 · -2.8%
• By 2050: 13,008 · -4.8%
• By 2075: 12,354 · -9.6%
• By 2100: 11,326 · -17.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 16% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Callahan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.6) · D 10.9% · R 88.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: -61.7pp · 2024: -77.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.6 2020: R+77.3 2016: R+77.2 2012: R+69.8 2008: R+61.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.74%
• Current HPI: 161.9583
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+73.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $120,000 NTREIS
• 2021-12-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-12-17 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2021-12-14 Pending — NTREIS
• 2021-11-18 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2021-11-05 Listed $69,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,858 · -3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.