4521 21st St NE · Holt, AL 35404

$89,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,706 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1940 0.32 ac lot Est $114k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Case # 011-333380 HUD HOME SOLD AS IS. Walls have been painted, it has some nice trees/flowers, level fenced-in yard, it is in a pristine community. This property is UNINSURED

Key facts

• 0.32 acre lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 14 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Gravel parking; No garage
• Utilities: Sewer connected; Paved road access; Cleared lot
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition/shingle roof
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Covered porch

Interior

• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Water heater; No fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $690 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#317 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Tuscaloosa County (suburban): math 21% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #47 of 129 in AL (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Holt Elementary School (math 16% / reading 35%, grade F, #411 of 627 statewide, top 66%, 462 students, 87% FRL); Holt High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #220 of 305 statewide, top 77%, 435 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 45% district-wide (43 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 33% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Tuscaloosa County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 622 units permitted in Tuscaloosa County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuscaloosa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.8% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $90k implies a 350% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 57% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $89,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.89%
• DSCR: 2.46
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $114,302
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3905 17th St NE	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,800 (+6%)	11mo	$119,900	$67	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $35,600
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.58×
• Total profit: $115,243
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35404

• Rents YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,571 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $505/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $690

Break-even live

Break-even rent $697

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $741	-5% $715	+0% $690	+5% $664	+10% $639
Rent	-10% $566	-5% $628	+0% $690	+5% $752	+10% $814
Rate	-1.0pp $735	-0.5pp $713	base $690	+0.5pp $667	+1.0pp $643

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1308 Crescent Ridge Rd NE Tuscaloosa, AL	3.0	2.0	1052	$1,250	$1.19	44d	1	0.63mi
3313 Alabama Ave NE Tuscaloosa, AL	4.0	2.0	1380	$1,500	$1.09	44d	1	0.70mi
4220 Keene Dr Tuscaloosa, AL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1119	$850	$0.76	22d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,900 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,900 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,900 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,900 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    remarks 225-char remark
12. 2026-06-05
    listed $89,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $505 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $505 · $42/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 57% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,848
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$505
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,508
• − Management: −$1,508
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $7,227
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,734
• After-tax cash flow: $6,544/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tuscaloosa County
• NCES district ID: 0103390
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,000
• Composite: 28.88/100
• National rank: #6641
• State rank: #47 of 129 in AL

Livability — Holt

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #317
• US rank: #19673

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holt, AL
• County: Tuscaloosa County · 206,491 people
• City population: 23,553
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• Population (ZIP): 22,445
• Household income: $48,932
• Rent vs Own: 56.5% rent · 43.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1531.0

Population outlook (Tuscaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,293 people
• By 2030: 240,551 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 263,856 · +15.6%
• By 2050: 286,491 · +25.5%
• By 2075: 335,783 · +47.1%
• By 2100: 370,520 · +62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 46% White 44% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuscaloosa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.4) · D 39.4% · R 59.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.0pp · 2024: -20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.4 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+19.5 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+16.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.00%
• Current HPI: 170.026
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.81%
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+349.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $89,900 WAMLS
• 2014-01-10 Sold (MLS) $20,000 WAMLS
• 2014-01-10 Sold (MLS) $20,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2013-11-04 Listed $20,000 WAMLS
• 2013-11-04 Listed $20,000 Greater Alabama MLS

Property tax history

+10.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $505 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.