4433 Colony Dr · Meraux, LA 70075

$280,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,028 sqft · SingleFamily · 34 Days on market

Built 1987 5,000 sqft lot Est $288k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This stunning 4 bed 2.5 bath, two story home in Lexington Place is the house you have been searching for! Located in the coveted Joe Davis school district! Complete with a detached garage and another half bath inside. Roof was recently installed in 2020! Beautiful, updated kitchen complete with a gas range, Bosch dishwasher recently installed, stainless steel appliances, and quartz countertops, that opens to your spacious living room. Home has wood-like tile installed on the first level throughout! All bedrooms are nicely sized along with the primary suite and attached bath. Step outside to a nice patio area that connects to your detached garage and fenced-in yard! Located in flood zone X!

Key facts

• 5,000 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1987

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $34 ($413/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (13.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (13.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 5.2% in Meraux — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#152 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 112 units permitted in St. Bernard Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Bernard County population projected at +89% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $241,801 (13.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.54%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $287,976
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4525 Stella Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,023 (-0%)	9mo	$255,000	$126	77
4513 Stella Dr	0.11mi	4/3.0	1,888 (-7%)	9mo	$258,000	$137	76
4108 Mistrot St	0.41mi	4/3.0	1,990 (-2%)	12mo	$376,000	$189	68
3408 Debouchel Blvd	0.27mi	4/2.0	2,173 (+7%)	5mo	$308,000	$142	67
4313 Florida Ave	0.38mi	4/2.0	1,925 (-5%)	6mo	$405,000	$210	65
4420 E Genie St	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,836 (-10%)	13mo	$204,000	$111	63
2913 Earl Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,768 (-13%)	8mo	$263,000	$149	56
2501 Garden St	0.64mi	4/2.0	1,932 (-5%)	3mo	$154,000	$80	56
2920 Bradbury St	0.23mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,179 (+7%)	16mo	$285,000	$131	56
3504 Debouchel Blvd	0.31mi	4/3.0	2,276 (+12%)	16mo	$340,000	$149	52
3237 Van Cleave Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,837 (-9%)	22mo	$247,000	$134	52
3421 Judy Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,845 (-9%)	22mo	$345,000	$187	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-43,180
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-34,777
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70075

• Home prices YoY: -18.3%
• Active inventory: 64
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,418 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$224 /mo · $2,692/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$508
• Net cashflow: $34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,374

Max offer price $280,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $193	-5% $114	+0% $34	+5% $-45	+10% $-124
Rent	-10% $-157	-5% $-61	+0% $34	+5% $130	+10% $225
Rate	-1.0pp $175	-0.5pp $106	base $34	+0.5pp $-38	+1.0pp $-112

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2804 Bradbury St Meraux, LA	5.0	3.0	2400	$2,800	$1.17	45d	1	0.28mi
2709 Munster Blvd Meraux, LA	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,900	$1.35	25d	1	0.89mi
2004 Webster St Meraux, LA	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,750	$1.25	19d	1	0.97mi
10002 Claiborne St Violet, LA	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,875	$1.20	45d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2024-12-13
   soldstatus $280,000 Closed 698-char remark

   Show marketing remark (698 chars)

   This stunning 4 bed 2.5 bath, two story home in Lexington Place is the house you have been searching for! Located in the coveted Joe Davis school district! Complete with a detached garage and another half bath inside. Roof was recently installed in 2020! Beautiful, updated kitchen complete with a gas range, Bosch dishwasher recently installed, stainless steel appliances, and quartz countertops, that opens to your spacious living room. Home has wood-like tile installed on the first level throughout! All bedrooms are nicely sized along with the primary suite and attached bath. Step outside to a nice patio area that connects to your detached garage and fenced-in yard! Located in flood zone X!

2. 2024-11-19
   status Pending 698-char remark

   Show marketing remark (698 chars)

   This stunning 4 bed 2.5 bath, two story home in Lexington Place is the house you have been searching for! Located in the coveted Joe Davis school district! Complete with a detached garage and another half bath inside. Roof was recently installed in 2020! Beautiful, updated kitchen complete with a gas range, Bosch dishwasher recently installed, stainless steel appliances, and quartz countertops, that opens to your spacious living room. Home has wood-like tile installed on the first level throughout! All bedrooms are nicely sized along with the primary suite and attached bath. Step outside to a nice patio area that connects to your detached garage and fenced-in yard! Located in flood zone X!

3. 2024-11-11
   historical Active Under Contract 698-char remark

   Show marketing remark (698 chars)

   This stunning 4 bed 2.5 bath, two story home in Lexington Place is the house you have been searching for! Located in the coveted Joe Davis school district! Complete with a detached garage and another half bath inside. Roof was recently installed in 2020! Beautiful, updated kitchen complete with a gas range, Bosch dishwasher recently installed, stainless steel appliances, and quartz countertops, that opens to your spacious living room. Home has wood-like tile installed on the first level throughout! All bedrooms are nicely sized along with the primary suite and attached bath. Step outside to a nice patio area that connects to your detached garage and fenced-in yard! Located in flood zone X!

4. 2024-10-08
   price $280,000 698-char remark

   Show marketing remark (698 chars)

   This stunning 4 bed 2.5 bath, two story home in Lexington Place is the house you have been searching for! Located in the coveted Joe Davis school district! Complete with a detached garage and another half bath inside. Roof was recently installed in 2020! Beautiful, updated kitchen complete with a gas range, Bosch dishwasher recently installed, stainless steel appliances, and quartz countertops, that opens to your spacious living room. Home has wood-like tile installed on the first level throughout! All bedrooms are nicely sized along with the primary suite and attached bath. Step outside to a nice patio area that connects to your detached garage and fenced-in yard! Located in flood zone X!

5. 2024-07-12
   listed $289,900 Active 698-char remark

   Show marketing remark (698 chars)

   This stunning 4 bed 2.5 bath, two story home in Lexington Place is the house you have been searching for! Located in the coveted Joe Davis school district! Complete with a detached garage and another half bath inside. Roof was recently installed in 2020! Beautiful, updated kitchen complete with a gas range, Bosch dishwasher recently installed, stainless steel appliances, and quartz countertops, that opens to your spacious living room. Home has wood-like tile installed on the first level throughout! All bedrooms are nicely sized along with the primary suite and attached bath. Step outside to a nice patio area that connects to your detached garage and fenced-in yard! Located in flood zone X!

6. 2024-07-12
   listed $280,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (698 chars)

   This stunning 4 bed 2.5 bath, two story home in Lexington Place is the house you have been searching for! Located in the coveted Joe Davis school district! Complete with a detached garage and another half bath inside. Roof was recently installed in 2020! Beautiful, updated kitchen complete with a gas range, Bosch dishwasher recently installed, stainless steel appliances, and quartz countertops, that opens to your spacious living room. Home has wood-like tile installed on the first level throughout! All bedrooms are nicely sized along with the primary suite and attached bath. Step outside to a nice patio area that connects to your detached garage and fenced-in yard! Located in flood zone X!

7. 2020-08-31
   soldstatus $233,000
8. 2020-08-28
   soldstatus $233,000
9. 2020-08-28
   listed $225,000
10. 2020-08-28
    listed $225,000
11. 2007-03-05
    soldstatus $100,000
12. 2006-11-29
    listed $110,000
13. 2006-11-29
    listed $110,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,692 · $224/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,692 · $224/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 60% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,016
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$2,692
• − Insurance: −$2,198
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,321
• − Management: −$2,321
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$4,346
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,043
• After-tax cash flow: $1,456/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Meraux

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #152
• US rank: #13001

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Meraux, LA
• City population: 5,349
• Population (ZIP): 5,349

Population outlook (St. Bernard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,513 people
• By 2030: 77,768 · +16.9%
• By 2040: 101,296 · +52.3%
• By 2050: 125,770 · +89.1%
• By 2075: 188,160 · +182.9%
• By 2100: 239,339 · +259.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 14% Black 10% Two or more races 10% Asian 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 16% Scottish 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Vietnamese 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Bernard

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.3) · D 34.5% · R 63.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.1pp toward D · 2008: -45.4pp · 2024: -29.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.3 2020: R+28.5 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+24.7 2008: R+45.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.56%
• Current HPI: 190.054
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+154.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2024-12-13 Sold (MLS) $280,000 GSREIN
• 2024-11-19 Pending — GSREIN
• 2024-11-11 Contingent — GSREIN
• 2024-10-08 Price Changed $280,000 GSREIN
• 2024-07-12 Listed $280,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2024-07-12 Listed $289,900 GSREIN
• 2020-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $233,000 Public Records
• 2020-08-28 Listed $225,000 GSREIN
• 2020-08-28 Listed $225,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2020-08-28 Sold (MLS) $233,000 GSREIN
• 2007-03-05 Sold (MLS) $100,000 GSREIN
• 2006-11-29 Listed $110,000 GSREIN
• 2006-11-29 Listed $110,000 AcadianaMLS

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,692 · -16.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.