7066 Nelson St · Holley, FL 32566

$269,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,242 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1969 0.63 ac lot Est $263k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• ARV discount +6.4/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NO HOA! Bring your boat! Holley Boat Ramp less than 1/2 mile. First time home buyers or investors must come see this charming 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home in Navarre, FL. The house features fresh neutral paint and beautiful LVP flooring throughout. The recently painted cabinetry and updated hardware adds a touch of modern elegance to the kitchen. Enjoy the privacy of the fenced-in backyard and the convenience of extra crushed asphalt parking on the property. The house sits on a beautiful lot with gorgeous oak trees and lush greenery, perfect for anyone preferring to be surrounded by nature. Updated fixtures and a nice front porch add to the overall appeal of this home. With a circle drivewa

Key facts

• Fenced-in backyard
• Circle driveway
• 0.63 acre lot

Tags

• FENCED-IN BACKYARD
• EXTRA CRUSHED ASPHALT PARKING
• CIRCLE DRIVEWAY

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Buyer financing available: Conventional, FHA, VA

Exterior

• Parking: Other parking
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Detached single-family residence; Construction complete
• Construction: Built in 1969; Frame construction with vinyl trim
• Exterior features: Interior lot; Within 1/2 mile to water; County road frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 140 x 195

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric stove/oven
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Single-story layout; Has heating; Has cooling

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $49 ($584/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (18.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (18.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.2% in Holley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#698 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Holley-Navarre Primary (771 students, 41% FRL); Holley-Navarre Middle School (math 71% / reading 63%, grade A-, #80 of 571 statewide, top 14%, 830 students, 42% FRL); Navarre High School (math 49% / reading 58%, grade C-, #146 of 667 statewide, top 22%, 2,406 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 769 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,363 (18.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.77%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $263,304
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6960 Nelson St	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,224 (-1%)	11mo	$299,900	$245	81
7111 Nelson St	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,261 (+2%)	5mo	$267,000	$212	80
3118 Live Oak St	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,352 (+9%)	16mo	$275,000	$203	57
6930 Nelson St	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,370 (+10%)	22mo	$265,000	$193	49
7444 Gordon Evans Rd	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,333 (+7%)	24mo	$355,000	$266	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-41,288
• Equity at exit: $40,243

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-34,618
• Equity at exit: $23,336

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32566

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 769
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,194 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$156 /mo · $1,878/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $49

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,132

Max offer price $269,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $201	-5% $125	+0% $49	+5% $-28	+10% $-104
Rent	-10% $-125	-5% $-38	+0% $49	+5% $135	+10% $222
Rate	-1.0pp $185	-0.5pp $117	base $49	+0.5pp $-21	+1.0pp $-92

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3661 London Rd Navarre, FL	3.0	2.0	1304	$1,950	$1.50	25d	1	0.86mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-09
   listed $269,900 Active
3. 2024-08-13
   historical $1,770
4. 2024-07-20
   listed $1,770
5. 2016-05-19
   historical
6. 2016-04-14
   listed $119,900
7. 2013-08-03
   historical
8. 2013-05-23
   listed $115,000
9. 2012-03-28
   historical
10. 2011-09-28
    listed $115,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,878 · $156/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,240 · $187/mo
• Expected delta: +$362/yr (+$30/mo · 19.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,324
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$1,878
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,106
• − Management: −$2,106
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable loss: −$4,086
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$981
• After-tax cash flow: $1,564/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Holley

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #698
• US rank: #14641

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holley, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 43,883
• Household income: $105,551
• Rent vs Own: 17.5% rent · 82.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 608.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.87%
• Current HPI: 298.6821
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.74%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+134.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — NAMLS
• 2026-05-09 Listed $269,900 NAMLS
• 2024-08-13 Rental Removed $1,770 NAMLS
• 2024-07-20 Listed for Rent $1,770 NAMLS
• 2016-05-19 Listing Removed — NAMLS
• 2016-04-14 Listed $119,900 NAMLS
• 2013-08-03 Listing Removed — NAMLS
• 2013-05-23 Listed $115,000 NAMLS
• 2012-03-28 Listing Removed — NAMLS
• 2011-09-28 Listed $115,000 NAMLS

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,878 · +9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.