12354 Mccrorey Trl · Cut and Shoot, TX 77303

$179,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,279 sqft · Land · 212 Days on market

Built 2025 4,216 sqft lot $50/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

WONDERFUL NEW D. R. HORTON BUILT 1 STORY IN MCCROREY TRAILS! MOVE-IN READY! Great Open Concept Interior Layout! Delightful Island Kitchen, Opens onto Spacious Living & Dining Area! Excellent for Functionality AND for Entertaining! Primary Suite Offers Lovely Bath with a Walk-In Closet! Generously Sized Secondary Bedrooms! Convenient Utility Room! Great Community with Park, Pickleball Court, Basketball Court, and Fishing Pond! Hurry and Call Today!

Key facts

• Island kitchen
• Walk-in closet
• Primary suite

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT INTERIOR LAYOUT
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS LIVING
• PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• INDOOR UTILITY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Municipal Utility District disclosure included
• HOA & community: Homeowners association managed by Goodwin & Co. Inc; Association fee $600 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction; Single-story (living spaces described on first level); Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built in 2025
• Construction: Cement siding construction; Built by D.R. Horton
• Exterior features: Porch; Private yard; Subdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave; Garbage disposal; Tankless water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First level) — approximately 13 x 12; Bedroom (First level) — approximately 11 x 10; Bedroom (First level) — approximately 11 x 10; Family room (First level) — approximately 15 x 14
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Granite counters; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Kitchen/dining combo; Living/dining room; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows; Ventilation for improved indoor air quality
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $264 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (1.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.9% in Cut and Shoot — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Edward B Cannan El (math 34% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,208 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 672 students, 74% FRL); Lynn Lucas Middle (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 971 students, 74% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 721 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 212 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $158,391 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 212 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.29%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-17,550
• Equity at exit: $26,837

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-13,784
• Equity at exit: $15,562

Cash invested: $50,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 721
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,767 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $749/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $264

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,432

Max offer price $179,990

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $366	-5% $315	+0% $264	+5% $213	+10% $162
Rent	-10% $125	-5% $195	+0% $264	+5% $334	+10% $404
Rate	-1.0pp $355	-0.5pp $310	base $264	+0.5pp $218	+1.0pp $170

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,998
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12366 Sword Point Ct Willis, TX	3.0	3.0	1206	$1,750	$1.45	45d	1	0.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $179,990 Active 212 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,990 Active 209 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,990 Active 208 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,990 Active 207 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,990 Active 206 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,990 Active 204 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   pricestatus $179,990 Active 200 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $197,990 Active Under Contract 200 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $197,990 Active Under Contract 199 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $197,990 Active Under Contract 198 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $197,990 Active Under Contract 195 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $197,990 Active Under Contract 194 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $197,990 Active Under Contract 193 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $197,990 Active Under Contract 192 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $197,990 Active Under Contract 191 DOM
16. 2026-03-15
    historical Active Under Contract
17. 2026-03-10
    price $197,990
18. 2025-12-06
    price $198,990
19. 2025-11-21
    listed $202,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $749 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,294 · $274/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,544/yr (+$212/mo · 339.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,082
• − Property taxes: −$749
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,696
• − Management: −$1,696
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $241
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$58
• After-tax cash flow: $3,114/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-15 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $197,990 HARMLS
• 2025-12-06 Price Changed $198,990 HARMLS
• 2025-11-21 Listed $202,990 HARMLS