16711 Holly St · Porter Heights, TX 77365

$224,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · Land · 20 Days on market

Built 2026 4,800 sqft lot $54/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Alder - Don't let the square footage number fool you, the open design of the one-story floor plan shows how a well thought out space can feel bright and airy, while serving all the needs of the home buyer. The huge island kitchen overlooks the great room and dining room - making it the perfect space to gather when entertaining. The creative use of space in the Alder spotlights a spacious primary suite privately situated on one side of the home, while the two other secondary bedrooms are on the other side. This design offers some versatility in how the secondary bedrooms can be used - possibly a home office or nursery could be some options for these rooms.

Key facts

• Island kitchen
• Primary suite
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• ISLAND KITCHEN
• GREAT ROOM
• DINING ROOM
• PRIMARY SUITE
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS
• HOME OFFICE

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $237 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (7.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (7.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 2.5% in Porter Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#663 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: White Oak Middle (math 38% / reading 32%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 834 students, 75% FRL); Porter H S (math 31% / reading 38%, grade F, #963 of 1,632 statewide, top 61%, 2,209 students, 65% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 941 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $208,094 (7.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.51%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-24,221
• Equity at exit: $33,533

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-13,062
• Equity at exit: $19,445

Cash invested: $62,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77365

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 941
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,081 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $963/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $237

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,781

Max offer price $224,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $364	-5% $300	+0% $237	+5% $173	+10% $109
Rent	-10% $72	-5% $154	+0% $237	+5% $319	+10% $401
Rate	-1.0pp $350	-0.5pp $294	base $237	+0.5pp $178	+1.0pp $119

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,225
• Closing costs: $6,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21019 Voyage Ln Porter, TX	3.0	2.5	1678	$1,795	$1.07	44d	1	0.29mi
16658 Moss Ln Porter, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,750	$1.25	25d	1	0.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-02
   listed $224,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $963 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,116 · $343/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,153/yr (+$263/mo · 327.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,971
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,598
• − Property taxes: −$963
• − Insurance: −$1,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,998
• − Management: −$1,998
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$6,543
• Taxable loss: −$900
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$216
• After-tax cash flow: $3,055/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Caney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832400
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,380
• Composite: 27.97/100
• National rank: #6857
• State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — Porter Heights

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #663
• US rank: #12479

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Porter Heights, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,418
• Household income: $95,702
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1016.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 44% Two or more races 15% Black 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 39% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.46%
• Current HPI: 225.9903
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.65%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $224,900 HARMLS