2916 E Briarwood St · Oak Trail Shores, TX 76048

$77,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,325 sqft · Manufactured public records · 273 Days on market

Built 1985 9,500 sqft lot $59/sqft · 59% below area ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Excellent property right in the heart of Granbury! Spacious, comfortable, and priced competitively for the area.

Key facts

• 9,500 sq ft lot
• Built 1985
• Listed 273 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath manufactured listed at $78k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $78k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.7% vs local median 5.9% in Oak Trail Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,187 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nettie Baccus El (math 39% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 466 students, 81% FRL); Granbury Middle (math 35% / reading 40%, grade F, #736 of 1,662 statewide, top 45%, 846 students, 68% FRL); Granbury H S (math 38% / reading 51%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,202 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 43% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 930 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $539 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 273 days — a 12% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,552 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 273 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 58.46%
• DSCR: 3.60
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $225,115
• List price: $77,900
• Delta: -65.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2614 Sycamore Ct	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+1%)	4mo	$175,000	$130	74
2723 Cypress St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-8%)	2mo	$147,500	$121	64
3007 Oak Wood St	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,478 (+12%)	5mo	$29,990	$20	64
3210 Robinhood Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-3%)	1mo	$144,900	$113	61
2703 Rockcliff Ct	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,368 (+3%)	14mo	$120,000	$88	59
3001 Elmwood Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,191 (-10%)	4mo	$157,500	$132	59
2654 Edgecliff Ct	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+1%)	12mo	$150,000	$112	59
3806 Oak Meadow St	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,264 (-5%)	11mo	$150,000	$119	57
3011 Mistletoe St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-8%)	7mo	$139,400	$115	50
4321 Terri Lee Ln	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,387 (+5%)	20mo	$189,000	$136	40
3622 Brook Valley St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,140 (-14%)	6mo	$137,500	$121	39
4425 W Oak Trl	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,159 (-12%)	17mo	$149,900	$129	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 55.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.36×
• Total profit: $51,394
• Equity at exit: $11,615

10-year hold

• IRR: 59.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.38×
• Total profit: $117,426
• Equity at exit: $6,735

Cash invested: $21,812 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76048

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 930
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,949 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$409
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $437/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $1,063

Break-even live

Break-even rent $604

Max offer price $77,900

Occupancy floor 40%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,107	-5% $1,085	+0% $1,063	+5% $1,041	+10% $1,019
Rent	-10% $909	-5% $986	+0% $1,063	+5% $1,140	+10% $1,217
Rate	-1.0pp $1,102	-0.5pp $1,083	base $1,063	+0.5pp $1,043	+1.0pp $1,022

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,475
• Closing costs: $2,337
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4321 Terri Lee Ln Granbury, TX	4.0	2.0	1387	$2,075	$1.50	0d	1	0.66mi
3225 Evergreen Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	1.0	916	$1,425	$1.56	0d	1	0.96mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $77,900 Active 273 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $77,900 Active 270 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $77,900 Active 269 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $77,900 Active 268 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $77,900 Active 267 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $77,900 Active 265 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $77,900 Active 261 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $77,900 Active 260 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $78,900 Active 259 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $78,900 Active 256 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $78,900 Active 255 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $78,900 Active 254 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $78,900 Active 253 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $78,900 Active 252 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    price $78,900 112-char remark

    Show marketing remark (112 chars)

    Excellent property right in the heart of Granbury! Spacious, comfortable, and priced competitively for the area.

16. 2026-01-08
    price $79,900 112-char remark

    Show marketing remark (112 chars)

    Excellent property right in the heart of Granbury! Spacious, comfortable, and priced competitively for the area.

17. 2025-12-11
    price $82,900 112-char remark

    Show marketing remark (112 chars)

    Excellent property right in the heart of Granbury! Spacious, comfortable, and priced competitively for the area.

18. 2025-11-10
    price $84,900 112-char remark

    Show marketing remark (112 chars)

    Excellent property right in the heart of Granbury! Spacious, comfortable, and priced competitively for the area.

19. 2025-09-29
    price $89,900 112-char remark

    Show marketing remark (112 chars)

    Excellent property right in the heart of Granbury! Spacious, comfortable, and priced competitively for the area.

20. 2025-09-21
    listed $94,900 Active 112-char remark

    Show marketing remark (112 chars)

    Excellent property right in the heart of Granbury! Spacious, comfortable, and priced competitively for the area.

21. 2025-09-17
    historical
22. 2025-08-27
    price $99,900
23. 2025-08-11
    listed $105,000 Active
24. 2025-07-10
    soldstatus
25. 1995-08-16
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $437 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,426 · $119/mo
• Expected delta: +$988/yr (+$82/mo · 226.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥108°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,394
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,364
• − Property taxes: −$437
• − Insurance: −$390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,872
• − Management: −$1,872
• − Depreciation: −$2,266
• Taxable income: $12,194
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,927
• After-tax cash flow: $9,826/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Oak Trail Shores

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1187
• US rank: #20758

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oak Trail Shores, TX
• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,000
• Household income: $70,346
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 612.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.25%
• Current HPI: 272.2126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.10%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-24.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $78,900 NTREIS
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $79,900 NTREIS
• 2025-12-11 Price Changed $82,900 NTREIS
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $84,900 NTREIS
• 2025-09-29 Price Changed $89,900 NTREIS
• 2025-09-21 Listed $94,900 NTREIS
• 2025-09-17 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-08-27 Price Changed $99,900 NTREIS
• 2025-08-11 Listed $105,000 NTREIS
• 2025-07-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-08-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $437 · +10.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.