23 Race St · Trenton, NJ 08638

$55,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1920 1,306 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

AS-IS Sale. Buyer is responsible to obtain the CO from the city.

Key facts

• 1,306 sq ft lot
• Built 1920
• Listed 2 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $55k).
• Cap rate 28.7% vs local median 6.3% in Trenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#133 in NJ, #3,533 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Trenton Public School District (urban): math 2% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #471 of 472 in NJ (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 83 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $6k; list at $55k implies a 746% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $55,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 79.91%
• DSCR: 4.56
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 80.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.70×
• Total profit: $57,029
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 84.0%
• Equity multiple: 9.85×
• Total profit: $136,337
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08638

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,828 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,290/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $1,026

Break-even live

Break-even rent $530

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 39%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,057	-5% $1,041	+0% $1,026	+5% $1,010	+10% $994
Rent	-10% $881	-5% $953	+0% $1,026	+5% $1,098	+10% $1,170
Rate	-1.0pp $1,053	-0.5pp $1,040	base $1,026	+0.5pp $1,011	+1.0pp $997

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
77 Race St Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	950	$1,700	$1.79	22d	1	0.06mi
901 Brunswick Ave #7 Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	940	$2,800	$2.98	15d	1	0.60mi
125 Olive St Trenton, NJ	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	896	$1,220	$1.36	22d	1	0.71mi
1100 Prospect St Unit 1 Ewing Township, NJ	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,000	$1.82	22d	1	0.72mi
12 Belvidere St Trenton, NJ	1.0	1.0	1068	$1,600	$1.50	22d	1	0.81mi
202 E Hanover St Unit 5G Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	750	$1,200	$1.60	22d	1	0.82mi
216 E State St Trenton, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0	811	$1,895	$2.34	15d	2	0.86mi
150 E State St Trenton, NJ	1.0	1.0	627	$1,750	$2.79	22d	1	0.88mi
27 Passaic St Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	900	$1,700	$1.89	22d	1	0.98mi
417 Walnut Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	992	$2,050	$2.07	22d	1	1.06mi
1163 E State St Unit 9 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	775	$1,770	$2.28	22d	1	1.06mi
1165 E State St Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	900	$1,749	$1.94	15d	1	1.06mi
416 Klagg Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1034	$2,300	$2.22	22d	1	1.07mi
339 Tioga St #339 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	864	$1,850	$2.14	22d	1	1.09mi
307 Spring St Unit 3 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	559	$1,800	$3.22	15d	1	1.09mi
307 Spring St Unit 2 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	689	$1,750	$2.54	15d	1	1.09mi
186 Passaic St Trenton, NJ	3.0	2.0	1064	$2,400	$2.26	5d	1	1.09mi
1001 Pennington Rd Unit 1-2B Ewing Township, NJ	2.0	1.0	700	$1,200	$1.71	22d	1	1.12mi
329 W State St Trenton, NJ	1.0	1.0	650	$1,500	$2.31	22d	1	1.18mi
720 Monmouth St Unit 111 Trenton, NJ	1.0	1.0	1102	$1,500	$1.36	22d	1	1.25mi
720 Monmouth St Unit 103 Trenton, NJ	1.0	1.0	832	$1,450	$1.74	22d	1	1.25mi
720 Monmouth St Unit 204 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1011	$1,750	$1.73	22d	1	1.26mi
435 Tyler St Unit 123 Trenton, NJ	1.0	1.0	607	$1,475	$2.43	22d	1	1.26mi
435 Tyler St Apt 203 Trenton, NJ	1.0	1.0	662	$1,500	$2.27	22d	1	1.26mi
435 Tyler St Unit 115 Trenton, NJ	1.0	1.0	860	$1,600	$1.86	22d	1	1.26mi
71 Clark St Trenton, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	975	$2,350	$2.41	15d	4	1.44mi
702 Meadow Woods Ln Lawrence Township, NJ	1.0	1.0	800	$1,745	$2.18	22d	1	1.45mi
907 Meadow Woods Ln Unit TYPE Lawrence Township, NJ	1.0	1.0	800	$1,600	$2.00	22d	1	1.47mi
114 Washington Ct Hamilton Township, NJ	1.0	1.0	560	$1,475	$2.63	22d	3	1.48mi
732 W State St Fl back Trenton, NJ	1.0	1.0	600	$1,150	$1.92	22d	1	1.48mi
121 Columbus Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,900	$1.81	22d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-16
   listed $55,000 Active
3. 1985-10-01
   soldstatus $6,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,290 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,330 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$40/yr (+$3/mo · 3.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,940
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$1,290
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,755
• − Management: −$1,755
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $12,184
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,924
• After-tax cash flow: $9,382/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trenton Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3416290
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $35,078
• Composite: 7.31/100
• National rank: #9956
• State rank: #471 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Trenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #133
• US rank: #3533

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Trenton, NJ
• County: Mercer County · 327,655 people
• City population: 177,819
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 22,816
• Household income: $66,875
• Rent vs Own: 42.0% rent · 58.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1185.0

Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,395 people
• By 2030: 384,640 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 391,431 · +2.6%
• By 2050: 397,845 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 417,281 · +9.4%
• By 2100: 420,327 · +10.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 43% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Guatemala, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 17% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+33.9) · D 65.9% · R 32.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 36.1pp · 2024: 33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+33.9 2020: D+40.0 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+36.8 2008: D+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -286.00%
• Current HPI: 334.5143
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.31%
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+746.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $55,000 MOMLS
• 1985-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $6,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,290 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.