2779 Thunderbird Dr #80 · Thousand Oaks, CA 91362

$399,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,708 sqft · Manufactured · 22 Days on market

Built 1976 5,222 sqft lot Est $347k · 15% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.4/30.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.7/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 2779 Thunderbird Dr. #80, a beautifully situated home in the highly desirable Thunderbird Oaks Mobile Home Club, a peaceful 55+ community in the heart of Thousand Oaks. Offering approximately 1,708 square feet of living space, this spacious home features an open and inviting floorplan, designed for comfortable everyday living and effortless entertaining. Privately positioned within the park, this home enjoys a premium location with a sense of tranquility and separation rarely found in community living. The expansive layout is filled with natural light and includes 2 spacious bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, generous living and dining areas, and a bright open kitchen with abundant cabinetry

Key facts

• Mature greenery
• Premium location
• Lush front lawn

Tags

• PREMIUM LOCATION
• FRESHLY PAINTED EXTERIOR
• LUSH FRONT LAWN
• MATURE GREENERY
• REFRESHED OUTDOOR SPACES
• NEWLY CARPETED FRONT PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subject to CC&R disclosures
• Financial info: Accepts Conventional and Cash financing; Land lease type: Other
• HOA & community: Association: Thunderbird Oaks; Association amenities include a recreation/multipurpose room

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car carport
• Home design: Mobile home (Howard Villa model); Built in 1976; Mobile dimensions about 34' x 60'; Located in a senior community
• Construction: Building area approximately 1,708
• Exterior features: Private pool and spa; Views; Entry located at living room

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heating present
• Interior features: Living area approximately 1,708 (seller provided); Entry from living room; No fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in a dedicated room inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $737 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $399k).
• Recommended offer: $393k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 2.8% in Thousand Oaks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#226 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Conejo Valley Unified (urban): math 57% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #59 of 517 in CA (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 162 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,759 units permitted in Ventura County in 2024 (1,196 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($140k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ventura County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($393k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $393,015 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.91%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $346,724
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
141 Navajo Way #60	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,536 (-10%)	4mo	$312,000	$203	78
124 Apache Cir #102	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,760 (+3%)	18mo	$275,000	$156	76
112 Navajo Way #48	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,484 (-13%)	6mo	$292,000	$197	69
2569 Thunderbird Dr #112	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,626 (-5%)	21mo	$499,000	$307	69
131 Comanche Way #76	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,488 (-13%)	10mo	$215,000	$144	68
110 Piute Dr #89	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,498 (-12%)	11mo	$315,000	$210	67
103 Comanche Way #70	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,621 (-5%)	18mo	$439,000	$271	67
2614 Mohawk Ave #116	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,536 (-10%)	14mo	$315,000	$205	66
117 Piute Dr	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,580 (-8%)	24mo	$290,500	$184	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-30,335
• Equity at exit: $59,492

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-14,750
• Equity at exit: $34,498

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 91362

• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 162
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,423 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$499 /mo · $5,985/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$929
• Net cashflow: $737

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,490

Max offer price $399,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,012	-5% $875	+0% $737	+5% $599	+10% $461
Rent	-10% $387	-5% $562	+0% $737	+5% $911	+10% $1,086
Rate	-1.0pp $938	-0.5pp $838	base $737	+0.5pp $633	+1.0pp $528

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2821 Los Robles Rd Thousand Oaks, CA	3.0	2.5	2155	$5,850	$2.71	44d	1	0.10mi
3190 Los Robles Rd Unit B Thousand Oaks, CA	3.0	2.5	1456	$4,300	$2.95	45d	1	0.38mi
255 N Skyline Dr Thousand Oaks, CA	3.0	2.5	1954	$4,200	$2.15	4d	1	0.39mi
77 N Conejo School Rd Thousand Oaks, CA	2.0	2.0	1220	$3,722	$3.05	4d	2	0.41mi
3236 Royal Oaks Dr #4 Thousand Oaks, CA	3.0	2.5	1887	$4,600	$2.44	44d	1	0.41mi
3231 Royal Oaks Dr Thousand Oaks, CA	3.0	2.5	1255	$3,550	$2.83	4d	1	0.42mi
117 Sunset Dr Thousand Oaks, CA	3.0	2.5	1268	$3,400	$2.68	44d	1	0.46mi
233 Almon Dr Thousand Oaks, CA	3.0	2.0	1206	$4,950	$4.10	44d	1	0.47mi
3240 Foothill Dr Thousand Oaks, CA	2.0	2.0	1050	$3,750	$3.57	22d	1	0.52mi
375 Avenida de Royale Thousand Oaks, CA	3.0	2.5	2002	$4,800	$2.40	24d	1	0.55mi
235 N Conejo School Rd Thousand Oaks, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	863	$3,310	$3.83	2d	1	0.58mi
603 Hampshire Rd Westlake Village, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1024	$2,868	$2.80	4d	10	0.70mi
223 Erbes Rd Thousand Oaks, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	875	$2,750	$3.14	12d	5	0.86mi
645 Hampshire Rd Westlake Village, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1039	$3,272	$3.15	3d	20	0.86mi
68 Maegan Pl #7 Thousand Oaks, CA	3.0	2.5	1200	$3,145	$2.62	44d	1	0.90mi
86 Maegan Pl Thousand Oaks, CA	3.0	2.5	1075	$3,250	$3.02	44d	1	0.91mi
2737 Sierra Dr Westlake Village, CA	3.0	2.0	1462	$4,995	$3.42	44d	1	0.95mi
1394 E Hillcrest Dr Thousand Oaks, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	912	$3,249	$3.56	3d	14	1.03mi
2828 Wasatch Ct Westlake Village, CA	3.0	2.0	1462	$4,950	$3.39	3d	1	1.10mi
1292 Paseo Rancho Serrano Thousand Oaks, CA	3.0	2.5	1818	$4,950	$2.72	24d	1	1.18mi
1081 Triunfo Canyon Rd Unit NA Westlake Village, CA	3.0	2.0	1724	$5,490	$3.18	11d	1	1.31mi
1080 Finrod Ct Westlake Village, CA	3.0	2.0	1826	$5,750	$3.15	44d	1	1.36mi
310 Rimrock Rd Westlake Village, CA	2.0	2.0	1600	$6,500	$4.06	4d	1	1.43mi
1502 Briarglen Ave Westlake Village, CA	3.0	2.0	1522	$5,700	$3.75	3d	1	1.48mi
1502 Briarglen Ave Westlake Village, CA	3.0	2.0	1522	$6,000	$3.94	44d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $399,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $399,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $399,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,000 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-27
    listed $399,000 Active
17. 2003-10-17
    listed
18. 2003-10-17
    historical
19. 2003-10-17
    listed $165,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $53,075
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$5,985
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,246
• − Management: −$4,246
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable income: $2,646
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$635
• After-tax cash flow: $8,206/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conejo Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0609640
• Math proficiency: 57% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $100,413
• Composite: 59.57/100
• National rank: #914
• State rank: #59 of 517 in CA

Livability — Thousand Oaks

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #226
• US rank: #7364

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Thousand Oaks, CA
• County: Ventura County · 829,955 people
• City population: 121,704
• Metro: Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA
• Population (ZIP): 35,996
• Household income: $139,800
• Rent vs Own: 27.1% rent · 72.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1283.0

Population outlook (Ventura County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 895,754 people
• By 2030: 912,134 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 931,454 · +4.0%
• By 2050: 934,609 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 924,899 · +3.3%
• By 2100: 864,712 · -3.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 12% Asian 9% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 5% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Ventura

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 56.1% · R 41.0% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.8pp toward D · 2008: 12.3pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+21.1 2016: D+16.8 2012: D+5.3 2008: D+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -880.38%
• Current HPI: 289.461
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.07%
• Metro: Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+141.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $399,000 CSMAR
• 2003-10-17 Listed $165,000 CSMAR
• 2003-10-17 Delisted — CRMLS
• 2003-10-17 Listed — CRMLS