1558 Valencia Dr · Lillian, AL 36549

$140,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1990 6,577 sqft lot $143/sqft · at area comps Est $147k · at est. $74/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.9/30.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Furnished 2 bedroom, 2 bath park model home in Spanish Cove! This move-in ready property offers a comfortable living area, functional kitchen, indoor laundry, covered carport/garage area, and storage shed/workshop. Furnishings and personal property convey per purchase agreement, making this a great option for anyone looking for an easy second home, vacation getaway, or full-time place near the coast. Spanish Cove offers a community pool, clubhouse, planned activities, game nights, bingo, cards, and plenty of ways to stay active and connected. Conveniently located in Lillian near Perdido Bay and the Gulf of America. Buyer and buyer’s agent to verify all information deemed important, in

Key facts

• 6,577 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Transfer fees apply
• HOA & community: Quarterly association fee ($221) covering association management, grounds maintenance, security, trash, clubhouse, pool; Community features: clubhouse, fitness center, fishing, on-site management, outdoor pool, tennis courts

Exterior

• Parking: Single carport (1 covered space)
• Security: Community security included in association amenities
• Utilities: Public water (Perdido Bay Water); Public sewer; Electric service: total electric; Riviera utilities
• Home design: Mobile home; One level; Resale condition; One lot; Whole/full ownership
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Built as a mobile home
• Exterior features: Patio; Subdivision lot (less than 1 acre); No waterfront; Community/association pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Electric range; Cooktop; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the main/first floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Ceiling fan(s) for cooling; Total electric service
• Interior features: Living room; Dining/kitchen combo; Rec room on lower level; Patio; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry area located outside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $386 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 4.1% in Lillian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#97 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Elberta Elementary School (math 47% / reading 65%, grade C+, #83 of 627 statewide, top 13%, 884 students, 58% FRL); Elberta Middle School (math 21% / reading 67%, grade D, #42 of 257 statewide, top 17%, 267 students, 63% FRL); Elberta High School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #47 of 305 statewide, top 17%, 784 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 38% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 154 active listings in the ZIP; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $140k implies a 192% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,800 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.83%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $146,950
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -4.73%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1561 Valencia Dr	0.04mi	2/2.0	980 (0%)	6mo	$129,000	$132	94
1686 Santa Cruz Dr	0.14mi	2/2.0	952 (-3%)	5mo	$165,000	$173	84
1525 Valencia Dr	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+8%)	2mo	$60,000	$57	80
685 Escambia Loop	0.53mi	2/2.0	1,000 (+2%)	2mo	$152,000	$152	70
241 Defuniak Loop	0.62mi	2/1.0	1,016 (+4%)	3mo	$160,000	$157	59
476 Buena Vista Dr	0.68mi	2/1.0	950 (-3%)	3mo	$130,000	$137	57
741 Buena Vista Dr	0.57mi	1/1.5 (-1)	922 (-6%)	1mo	$134,000	$145	56
1225 Chagrin Dr	0.25mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,116 (+14%)	6mo	$147,900	$133	52
106 Portage Cir	0.70mi	2/1.0	940 (-4%)	7mo	$145,000	$154	50
657 Escambia Loop	0.48mi	2/1.0	864 (-12%)	8mo	$150,000	$174	47
1347 Ridgewood Dr	0.51mi	2/2.0	840 (-14%)	7mo	$180,000	$214	47
558 Escambia Loop	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,100 (+12%)	5mo	$200,000	$182	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $1,906
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $33,283
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36549

• Home prices YoY: -7.6%
• Active inventory: 154
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,631 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $428/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$74
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $386

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,142

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $466	-5% $426	+0% $386	+5% $347	+10% $307
Rent	-10% $258	-5% $322	+0% $386	+5% $451	+10% $515
Rate	-1.0pp $457	-0.5pp $422	base $386	+0.5pp $350	+1.0pp $313

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $74 · $888/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $140,000 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $140,000 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $140,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $140,000 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $140,000 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $140,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $140,000 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $140,000 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 28 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 27 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 26 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $140,000 Active 25 DOM
19. 2026-05-14
    historical Active Under Contract 826-char remark
20. 2026-05-05
    listed $140,000 Active 826-char remark
21. 2026-02-25
    status Active
22. 2026-02-19
    historical Active Under Contract
23. 2026-02-05
    listed $150,000 Active
24. 2025-11-06
    listed $150,000 Active
25. 2004-04-06
    soldstatus $48,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $428 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $574 · $48/mo
• Expected delta: +$146/yr (+$12/mo · 34.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,573
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$428
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,566
• − Management: −$1,566
• − HOA: −$888
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $2,510
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$602
• After-tax cash flow: $4,034/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Lillian

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #97
• US rank: #11371

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 6,152
• Population (ZIP): 6,152

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Italian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.45%
• Current HPI: 285.5902
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+191.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Relisted — BCAR
• 2026-05-14 Contingent — BCAR
• 2026-05-05 Listed $140,000 BCAR
• 2026-02-25 Relisted — BCAR
• 2026-02-19 Contingent — BCAR
• 2026-02-05 Listed $150,000 BCAR
• 2025-11-06 Listed $150,000 BCAR
• 2004-04-06 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+16.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $428 · +30.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.