2616 Harriet Ave #204 · Minneapolis, MN 55408

$128,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 794 sqft · Condo public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1970

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Built 1970
• Listed 10 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Alchemy; Association amenities include laundry; Association fee includes air conditioning, controlled access, hazard insurance, and heating

Exterior

• Parking: Parking lot
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Electric service with circuit breakers; Electric fuel
• Home design: Attached residential property; One story; Entry level: Main
• Construction: Block foundation
• Exterior features: Stone exterior; Medium tree coverage; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Main level primary bedroom; 2 bedrooms (both on main level)
• Flooring: Hardwood floors; Tile floors
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main floor
• Heating & cooling: Boiler heating; Wall-mounted air conditioning unit(s)
• Interior features: All living facilities on one level; Renovated; Eat-in kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement (common area, lower level)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $128k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-211 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $128k).
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.1% in Minneapolis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#110 in MN, #2,525 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, crime F.
• Minneapolis Public School District (urban): math 35% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #217 of 301 in MN (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 175 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,651 units permitted in Hennepin County in 2024 (2,443 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $888 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hennepin County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.

Recommended offer $128,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.03%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-31,583
• Equity at exit: $19,160

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-33,522
• Equity at exit: $11,110

Cash invested: $35,980 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 34 Tenant-Leaning
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Minneapolis: 34 Tenant-Leaning · D+50

Tenant Opportunity to Purchase; renter's protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55408

• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 175
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,329 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$674
• Tax from tax record: −$152 /mo · $1,823/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA est. from 3 same-building comps: −$381
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $-211

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,595

Max offer price $91,286

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-138	-5% $-174	+0% $-211	+5% $-247	+10% $-283
Rent	-10% $-316	-5% $-263	+0% $-211	+5% $-158	+10% $-106
Rate	-1.0pp $-146	-0.5pp $-178	base $-211	+0.5pp $-244	+1.0pp $-278

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,125
• Closing costs: $3,855
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2641 Garfield Ave Unit 101 Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	750	$1,095	$1.46	44d	1	0.06mi
2641 Garfield Ave Unit 106 Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	550	$965	$1.75	44d	1	0.06mi
2552 Garfield Ave Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	463	$1,000	$2.16	17d	3	0.07mi
2535 Aldrich Ave S Unit 3 Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.5	1050	$2,050	$1.95	0d	1	0.17mi
2611 Pleasant Ave Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	650	$1,430	$2.20	3d	37	0.17mi
2636 Pillsbury Ave S Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0	560	$1,212	$2.16	3d	1	0.21mi
2740 Pleasant Ave Minneapolis, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0	645	$1,345	$2.09	0d	2	0.22mi
2725 Pleasant Ave Unit 101 Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	700	$1,100	$1.57	4d	1	0.22mi
607 W 28th St Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	621	$1,915	$3.08	0d	13	0.23mi
2813 Garfield Ave Apt 2815-1 Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	650	$1,950	$3.00	8d	1	0.25mi
2508 Pillsbury Ave S Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	535	$1,110	$2.07	17d	2	0.25mi
2800 Grand Ave S Minneapolis, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0	692	$1,350	$1.95	4d	4	0.25mi
2655 Colfax Ave S Unit 301 Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	800	$1,360	$1.70	18d	1	0.28mi
900 W 25th St Unit 04 Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,249	$1.25	44d	1	0.30mi
900 W 25th St Unit 03 Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	700	$1,099	$1.57	44d	1	0.30mi
2600 Colfax Ave S Unit 3 Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,100	$1.91	44d	1	0.30mi
2833 Lyndale Ave S Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	818	$2,175	$2.66	0d	5	0.31mi
2530 Blaisdell Ave Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	850	$1,140	$1.34	18d	1	0.31mi
2800 Pillsbury Ave Apt 5 Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	550	$1,100	$2.00	18d	1	0.31mi
2800 Pillsbury Ave Unit 1 Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	550	$1,049	$1.91	44d	1	0.31mi
2443 Pillsbury Ave S Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	550	$995	$1.81	18d	1	0.31mi
2310 Harriet Ave Unit B3 Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	575	$950	$1.65	44d	1	0.32mi
2310 Harriet Ave Unit 305 Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	575	$1,009	$1.75	44d	1	0.32mi
2435 Pillsbury Ave S Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	740	$960	$1.30	8d	1	0.33mi
2500 Colfax Ave S Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	675	$1,275	$1.89	15d	2	0.34mi
2841 Bryant Ave S Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	835	$2,460	$2.94	0d	22	0.34mi
2300 Harriet Ave Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	560	$1,025	$1.83	4d	1	0.34mi
2300 Pleasant Ave Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	550	$1,150	$2.09	2d	8	0.34mi
2222 Harriet Ave Unit 203 Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	600	$1,025	$1.71	44d	1	0.35mi
2226 Garfield Ave Unit B1 Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	575	$965	$1.68	8d	1	0.35mi
2226 Garfield Ave Unit 301 Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	575	$1,075	$1.87	8d	1	0.35mi
2226 Garfield Ave Unit 103 Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	575	$1,005	$1.75	8d	1	0.35mi
2219 Garfield Ave Unit 101 Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	630	$975	$1.55	25d	1	0.36mi
2216 Harriet Ave Unit 102 Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	560	$895	$1.60	3d	1	0.36mi
2916 Grand Ave S Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	814	$1,250	$1.54	4d	1	0.37mi
2324 Bryant Ave S Apt 202 Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	700	$1,265	$1.81	44d	1	0.38mi
2300 Aldrich Ave S Unit 4 Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	800	$1,225	$1.53	44d	1	0.39mi
2300 Aldrich Ave S Unit 19 Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	560	$1,005	$1.79	14d	1	0.39mi
2200 Harriet Ave Unit F Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,750	$1.59	44d	1	0.39mi
2204 Grand Ave S Unit 1 Minneapolis, MN	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,750	$1.59	15d	1	0.40mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $128,500 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $128,500 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $128,500 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $128,500 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $128,500 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   listed $128,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,823 · $152/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,823 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,945
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,198
• − Property taxes: −$1,823
• − Insurance: −$642
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,276
• − Management: −$1,276
• − HOA: −$4,572
• − Depreciation: −$3,738
• Taxable loss: −$4,580
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,099
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,429/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Minneapolis Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2721240
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,521
• Composite: 34.92/100
• National rank: #5067
• State rank: #217 of 301 in MN

Livability — Minneapolis

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #110
• US rank: #2525

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C- Crime F Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Minneapolis, MN
• County: Hennepin County · 1,150,272 people
• City population: 417,555
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 31,507
• Household income: $70,326
• Rent vs Own: 76.4% rent · 23.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2619.0

Population outlook (Hennepin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,405,227 people
• By 2030: 1,492,650 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 1,660,157 · +18.1%
• By 2050: 1,823,498 · +29.8%
• By 2075: 2,221,283 · +58.1%
• By 2100: 2,509,976 · +78.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 17% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Asian 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hennepin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.6) · D 70.2% · R 27.5% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.0pp toward D · 2008: 28.6pp · 2024: 42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.6 2020: D+43.2 2016: D+35.3 2012: D+27.1 2008: D+28.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -148.08%
• Current HPI: 256.0491
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.77%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+542.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Listed $128,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-10-11 Sold (Public Records) $112,000 Public Records
• 2002-03-19 Sold (Public Records) $71,735 Public Records
• 2002-03-19 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records
• 2001-08-09 Sold (MLS) $71,750 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-08-02 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-07-10 Listed $73,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-08-16 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records
• 1992-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,823 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.