12256 Foxmoor Peak Dr · Riverview, FL 33579

$230,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,255 sqft · Townhouse public records · 4 Days on market

Built 2005 1,441 sqft lot $295/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great END UNIT Townhome in the gated community of Panther Trace. This 2 bedroom, 2.5 bath town home has spacious living area downstairs with fully equipped kitchen. Bedrooms are located upstairs each w/ full bath. Half bath is downstairs. Sit on your covered open patio and enjoy the views of the beautiful pond. Community amenities include water, sewer, trash, exterior and grounds maintenance and there is a community pool! Easy access to I-75, 301, US 41, & Shopping and Dining. Roof was replaced in 2017 and is under warranty.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Pantry storage
• Under stair storage

Tags

• POND VIEWS
• GATED COMMUNITY
• PASS-THROUGH SNACK BAR
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• PANTRY STORAGE
• UNDER STAIR STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-156 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (12.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (8.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#134 in FL, #2,000 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Collins Elementary School (math 50% / reading 55%, grade C-, #976 of 2,144 statewide, top 46%, 1,009 students, 46% FRL); Barrington Middle School (math 70% / reading 63%, grade A-, #84 of 571 statewide, top 16%, 1,434 students, 34% FRL); Riverview High School (math 37% / reading 50%, grade F, #248 of 667 statewide, top 38%, 2,599 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 463 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.4%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $174k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,412 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.91%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.42% appreciation · 1.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-35,213
• Equity at exit: $50,907

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-43,397
• Equity at exit: $49,618

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33579

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 463
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,105 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$222 /mo · $2,665/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$295
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $-156

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,303

Max offer price $202,412

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-26	-5% $-91	+0% $-156	+5% $-221	+10% $-286
Rent	-10% $-322	-5% $-239	+0% $-156	+5% $-73	+10% $10
Rate	-1.0pp $-40	-0.5pp $-98	base $-156	+0.5pp $-216	+1.0pp $-276

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12322 Foxmoor Peak Dr Riverview, FL	2.0	2.5	1390	$2,200	$1.58	26d	1	0.06mi
12315 Foxmoor Peak Dr Riverview, FL	2.0	2.5	1383	$1,700	$1.23	4d	1	0.07mi
12315 Foxmoor Peak Dr Riverview, FL	2.0	2.5	1400	$1,800	$1.29	26d	1	0.07mi
12327 Healey Summit Ln Riverview, FL	2.0	2.5	1390	$1,750	$1.26	26d	1	0.11mi
10553 Egret Haven Ln Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1525	$2,500	$1.64	14d	1	0.25mi
12219 Dawn Vista Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1248	$2,200	$1.76	7d	1	0.29mi
12514 Early Run Ln Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1856	$2,225	$1.20	26d	1	0.34mi
10425 Red Carpet Ct Riverview, FL	3.0	3.0	1688	$2,150	$1.27	22d	1	0.41mi
10428 Orchid Mist Ct Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1789	$2,035	$1.14	7d	1	0.43mi
10710 Verawood Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1818	$1,300	$0.72	16d	1	0.45mi
10903 Verawood Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1536	$2,000	$1.30	22d	1	0.46mi
12214 Legacy Bright St Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1844	$2,400	$1.30	26d	1	0.52mi
10976 Verawood Dr Unit Lake Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1536	$2,149	$1.40	7d	1	0.53mi
10976 Verawood Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1536	$2,149	$1.40	16d	1	0.53mi
10540 Whispering Hammock Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1535	$2,185	$1.42	1d	1	0.57mi
10328 Soaring Eagle Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1545	$2,395	$1.55	5d	1	0.68mi
11991 Stoneport Pl Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1758	$2,699	$1.54	14d	1	0.72mi
11915 Stoneport Pl Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,399	$1.43	1d	1	0.80mi
11888 Mountain Retreat Ln Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,299	$1.37	22d	1	0.82mi
12805 Avelar Manor Pl Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1832	$2,375	$1.30	26d	1	0.82mi
12820 Belvedere Song Way Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1513	$2,000	$1.32	26d	1	0.84mi
12612 Ocelot Pl Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1296	$2,100	$1.62	7d	1	0.85mi
11855 Mountain Retreat Ln Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,399	$1.43	14d	1	0.87mi
10918 Winter Crest Dr Riverview, FL	2.0	2.0	1340	$1,800	$1.34	7d	1	0.98mi
10806 Brickside Ct Riverview, FL	2.0	2.5	1448	$1,650	$1.14	4d	1	0.98mi
12961 Utopia Gardens Way Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1668	$1,890	$1.13	18d	1	1.01mi
10811 Brickside Ct Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1408	$1,675	$1.19	26d	1	1.02mi
10811 Brickside Ct Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1408	$1,675	$1.19	19d	1	1.02mi
12942 Utopia Gardens Way Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1668	$2,390	$1.43	1d	1	1.02mi
12942 Utopia Gardens Way Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1668	$2,350	$1.41	4d	1	1.02mi
12739 Lemon Pepper Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1267	$1,989	$1.57	23d	1	1.02mi
12906 Trade Port Pl Riverview, FL	2.0	2.5	1532	$1,800	$1.17	26d	1	1.04mi
10231 Opaline Sky Pl Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1496	$2,400	$1.60	19d	1	1.06mi
10932 Keys Gate Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1408	$1,750	$1.24	4d	1	1.06mi
10943 Keys Gate Dr Riverview, FL	2.0	2.5	1532	$1,800	$1.17	4d	1	1.10mi
11702 Miracle Mile Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1405	$2,105	$1.50	7d	1	1.13mi
10221 Summerview Cir Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,969	$1.33	26d	1	1.21mi
12938 Fennway Ridge Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1541	$2,000	$1.30	1d	1	1.27mi
12845 Longcrest Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1812	$2,215	$1.22	0d	1	1.27mi
12913 Brookcrest Pl Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1484	$2,160	$1.46	1d	1	1.28mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $295 · $3,540/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashlandscapingpoolsecurity

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-31
   listed $230,000 Active
3. 2021-08-18
   soldstatus $174,000
4. 2021-08-13
   soldstatus $174,000 Closed 536-char remark

   Show marketing remark (536 chars)

   Great END UNIT Townhome in the gated community of Panther Trace. This 2 bedroom, 2.5 bath town home has spacious living area downstairs with fully equipped kitchen. Bedrooms are located upstairs each w/ full bath. Half bath is downstairs. Sit on your covered open patio and enjoy the views of the beautiful pond. Community amenities include water, sewer, trash, exterior and grounds maintenance and there is a community pool! Easy access to I-75, 301, US 41, & Shopping and Dining. Roof was replaced in 2017 and is under warranty.

5. 2021-07-14
   status Pending 536-char remark

   Show marketing remark (536 chars)

   Great END UNIT Townhome in the gated community of Panther Trace. This 2 bedroom, 2.5 bath town home has spacious living area downstairs with fully equipped kitchen. Bedrooms are located upstairs each w/ full bath. Half bath is downstairs. Sit on your covered open patio and enjoy the views of the beautiful pond. Community amenities include water, sewer, trash, exterior and grounds maintenance and there is a community pool! Easy access to I-75, 301, US 41, & Shopping and Dining. Roof was replaced in 2017 and is under warranty.

6. 2021-07-13
   listed $167,000 Active 536-char remark

   Show marketing remark (536 chars)

   Great END UNIT Townhome in the gated community of Panther Trace. This 2 bedroom, 2.5 bath town home has spacious living area downstairs with fully equipped kitchen. Bedrooms are located upstairs each w/ full bath. Half bath is downstairs. Sit on your covered open patio and enjoy the views of the beautiful pond. Community amenities include water, sewer, trash, exterior and grounds maintenance and there is a community pool! Easy access to I-75, 301, US 41, & Shopping and Dining. Roof was replaced in 2017 and is under warranty.

7. 2008-02-07
   historical
8. 2007-10-01
   listed $162,900
9. 2007-03-14
   listed $165,000
10. 2005-06-08
    soldstatus $486,500
11. 1998-07-16
    soldstatus $3,200,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,665 · $222/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,665 · $222/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,260
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$2,665
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,021
• − Management: −$2,021
• − HOA: −$3,540
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$5,712
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,371
• After-tax cash flow: $-503/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Riverview

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #134
• US rank: #2000

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Riverview, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 137,988
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 49,470
• Household income: $116,134
• Rent vs Own: 16.5% rent · 83.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 258.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 24% Two or more races 19% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1% British 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Current HPI: 240.5825
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.18%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-92.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Listed $230,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $174,000 Public Records
• 2021-08-13 Sold (MLS) $174,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-13 Listed $167,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-02-07 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-10-01 Listed $162,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-03-14 Listed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-06-08 Sold (Public Records) $486,500 Public Records
• 1998-07-16 Sold (Public Records) $3,200,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,665 · +8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.