11079 State Highway 198 · Payne Springs, TX 75147

$189,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,768 sqft · Manufactured public records · 4 Days on market

Built 2020 0.76 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Fantastic opportunity in Mabank! Located right off SH 198, this versatile 1,907 sq. ft. property is fresh, bright, and ready to welcome its next owner. Featuring a complete, crisp coat of new paint throughout, the home beautifully embraces an open-concept, modern farmhouse style. The spacious living area flows effortlessly into a gorgeous kitchen, complete with a center island that serves as the perfect hub for family gatherings or casual entertaining. Down the hall, you will find a spectacular primary bedroom suite designed to impress, offering a massive retreat with plenty of layout flexibility. With a total of 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, the floor plan is incredibly adaptable—

Key facts

• Gorgeous kitchen
• Excellent location
• Center island

Tags

• MODERN FARMHOUSE STYLE
• GORGEOUS KITCHEN
• CENTER ISLAND
• PRIMARY BEDROOM SUITE
• LAYOUT FLEXIBILITY
• EXCELLENT LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Aerobic septic
• Home design: Manufactured home (attached); Single-story
• Construction: Built in 2020; Fiber cement exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.76 acre; Subdivision: Cherokee Shores Sub Sec A; GPS-referenced directions

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms; Primary bedroom on level 1 with walk-in closet
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Open floorplan; Two living areas; One dining area; Three total rooms (per listing)
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $246 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.9% in Payne Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#985 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Eustace ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #455 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Eustace Pri (497 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.1%/yr); 214 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 905% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $132k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.55%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.43×
• Total profit: $129,410
• Equity at exit: $171,077

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.8%
• Equity multiple: 8.42×
• Total profit: $394,324
• Equity at exit: $368,934

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75147

• Home prices YoY: 4.6%
• Rents YoY: 8.1%
• Active inventory: 214
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,949 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$219 /mo · $2,625/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $246

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,638

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $353	-5% $300	+0% $246	+5% $192	+10% $139
Rent	-10% $92	-5% $169	+0% $246	+5% $323	+10% $400
Rate	-1.0pp $342	-0.5pp $294	base $246	+0.5pp $197	+1.0pp $147

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
207 Woody Rd Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,495	$0.95	44d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $189,900 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   remarks 693-char remark
5. 2026-06-16
   listed $189,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,625 · $219/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,475 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: +$850/yr (+$71/mo · 32.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,388
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$2,625
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,871
• − Management: −$1,871
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$90
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$22
• After-tax cash flow: $2,974/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eustace ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818720
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $42,425
• Composite: 32.48/100
• National rank: #5711
• State rank: #455 of 826 in TX

Livability — Payne Springs

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #985
• US rank: #17539

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Van Zandt County · 9,177 people
• City population: 16,333
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,177
• Household income: $56,940
• Rent vs Own: 36.9% rent · 63.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.14%
• Current HPI: 254.32
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.13%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+5.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $189,900 NTREIS
• 2026-06-15 Listed $18,900 NTREIS
• 2026-05-14 Sold (Public Records) $131,945 Public Records
• 2026-05-01 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-04-26 Price Changed $155,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $164,500 NTREIS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $172,500 NTREIS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $179,900 NTREIS
• 2000-03-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+39.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,625 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.