5998 Mercer St · Cut and Shoot, TX 77303

$189,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,522 sqft · SingleFamily · 82 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $125/sqft · 19% below area Est $233k · 19% under $43/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BRAND NEW HOME WITH NO BACK NEIGHBORS!! Introducing the Athena floorplan, a thoughtfully designed one story home offering 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and approximately 1,499 square feet of comfortable living space. The open concept layout seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating an easy flow for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. The private primary suite is tucked away for added privacy and includes a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom. With no back neighbors, this home offers added privacy and a more open backyard feel. A fully fenced backyard completes this well designed home in Avalon Ridge, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

Key facts

• Large island
• Soft close cabinets
• Granite countertops

Tags

• NO BACK NEIGHBORS
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE ISLAND
• SOFT CLOSE CABINETS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $219 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $179k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.9% in Cut and Shoot — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Austin El (math 39% / reading 29%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 950 students, 81% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 34% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 37% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 721 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $178,590 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.93%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $233,330
• List price: $189,990
• Delta: -18.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15435 Glinton Farm Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-7%)	1mo	$244,500	$173	82
5623 Shelford Birch Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-7%)	1mo	$241,500	$171	81

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-22,652
• Equity at exit: $28,328

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-24,144
• Equity at exit: $16,427

Cash invested: $53,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 721
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,993 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$237 /mo · $2,850/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$43
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $219

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,716

Max offer price $189,990

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $350	-5% $284	+0% $219	+5% $153	+10% $87
Rent	-10% $61	-5% $140	+0% $219	+5% $297	+10% $376
Rate	-1.0pp $314	-0.5pp $267	base $219	+0.5pp $169	+1.0pp $119

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,498
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9248 Laiden Creek Trl Unit 510 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1788	$1,984	$1.11	0d	1	1.47mi
9262 Laiden Creek Trl Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1601	$1,855	$1.16	0d	14	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $43 · $516/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,990 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,990 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,990 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,990 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,990 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,990 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $189,990 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $194,990 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $194,990 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $194,990 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $194,990 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $194,990 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $194,990 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $194,990 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    price $194,990 872-char remark

    Show marketing remark (872 chars)

    BRAND NEW HOME WITH NO BACK NEIGHBORS!! Introducing the Athena floorplan, a thoughtfully designed one story home offering 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and approximately 1,499 square feet of comfortable living space. The open concept layout seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating an easy flow for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. The private primary suite is tucked away for added privacy and includes a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom. With no back neighbors, this home offers added privacy and a more open backyard feel. A fully fenced backyard completes this well designed home in Avalon Ridge, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

16. 2026-05-08
    price $199,990 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    Enter through the front porch into a foyer with two bedrooms and a full bath located near the front of the home. The laundry room and coat closet are also accessible from this hallway. At the center of the home, the kitchen opens to the dining area and great room, creating a spacious main living space. Toward the back, the primary bedroom features a walk-in closet and a primary bath. A patio is accessible through the great room, and the two-car garage connects to the home through a hallway near the foyer.

17. 2026-04-11
    price $199,990 872-char remark

    Show marketing remark (872 chars)

    BRAND NEW HOME WITH NO BACK NEIGHBORS!! Introducing the Athena floorplan, a thoughtfully designed one story home offering 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and approximately 1,499 square feet of comfortable living space. The open concept layout seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating an easy flow for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. The private primary suite is tucked away for added privacy and includes a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom. With no back neighbors, this home offers added privacy and a more open backyard feel. A fully fenced backyard completes this well designed home in Avalon Ridge, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

18. 2026-04-02
    listed $219,990 Active 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    Enter through the front porch into a foyer with two bedrooms and a full bath located near the front of the home. The laundry room and coat closet are also accessible from this hallway. At the center of the home, the kitchen opens to the dining area and great room, creating a spacious main living space. Toward the back, the primary bedroom features a walk-in closet and a primary bath. A patio is accessible through the great room, and the two-car garage connects to the home through a hallway near the foyer.

19. 2026-03-31
    price $219,990 872-char remark

    Show marketing remark (872 chars)

    BRAND NEW HOME WITH NO BACK NEIGHBORS!! Introducing the Athena floorplan, a thoughtfully designed one story home offering 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and approximately 1,499 square feet of comfortable living space. The open concept layout seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating an easy flow for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. The private primary suite is tucked away for added privacy and includes a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom. With no back neighbors, this home offers added privacy and a more open backyard feel. A fully fenced backyard completes this well designed home in Avalon Ridge, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

20. 2026-03-31
    listed $245,500 Active 872-char remark

    Show marketing remark (872 chars)

    BRAND NEW HOME WITH NO BACK NEIGHBORS!! Introducing the Athena floorplan, a thoughtfully designed one story home offering 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and approximately 1,499 square feet of comfortable living space. The open concept layout seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating an easy flow for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. The private primary suite is tucked away for added privacy and includes a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom. With no back neighbors, this home offers added privacy and a more open backyard feel. A fully fenced backyard completes this well designed home in Avalon Ridge, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,917
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,642
• − Property taxes: −$2,850
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,913
• − Management: −$1,913
• − HOA: −$516
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$395
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$95
• After-tax cash flow: $2,717/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This brand new home with no back neighbors offers a thoughtfully designed floorplan and is move-in ready. It has a good condition score and minimal maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Improves functionality and adds value for both resale and rental.
• Both Adding smart home features — Enhances convenience and adds value for both resale and rental.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Improves functionality and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Enhances convenience and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-20.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $194,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $199,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $199,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $219,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $219,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $245,500 HARMLS