9605 Lincoln Blvd · Carmel, IN 46280

$449,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1962 0.51 ac lot $221/sqft · 6% above area Est $559k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Sensational opportunity to enjoy affordable living in the heart of Carmel. This completely updated home offers the desirable open-concept living, paired with an extraordinary private half-acre lot and no HOA restrictions. Step inside to find a bright, flowing floor plan featuring a dedicated front office and a light-filled sunroom overlooking the stunning backyard retreat. The beautifully updated kitchen is designed for both everyday living and entertaining, complete with an induction cooktop, breakfast bar, and seamless connection to the living and dining spaces. At the center of the home, a gorgeous gas log masonry fireplace with a stone surround and wood mantel creates a warm focal point

Key facts

• Light-filled sunroom
• Elegant waterfall
• 0.51 acre lot

Tags

• PRIVATE HALF-ACRE LOT
• DEDICATED FRONT OFFICE
• LIGHT-FILLED SUNROOM
• METICULOUSLY MANICURED GARDENS
• ELEGANT WATERFALL
• BEAUTIFUL FIRE PIT AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property sits on approximately 0.51 acres (about 1/2–1 acre); Low maintenance lifestyle: No

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Two-car garage (approximately 550 sq ft)
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Municipal sewer connected; Natural gas connected; 200+ amp electrical service; Solid waste service available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Updated/remodeled condition; Two levels; Faces west
• Construction: Brick and cedar construction; Concrete perimeter foundation; Has basement (cellar)
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Mini barn; Fire pit; Water fountain feature; Full yard fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave with hood; Electric oven; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen and breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms on the upper level (Upper)
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl plank in kitchen
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Primary bathroom with full shower stall and suite
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Attic pull-down stairs; Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen; Painted woodwork; Laundry in unit
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Electric water heater; Washer and dryer listed among appliances (dryer included)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-562 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $351k (22.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $272k (39.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $272k (39.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.7% in Carmel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#7 in IN, #726 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute F.
• Carmel Clay Schools (urban): math 68% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #1 of 301 in IN (top 0%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Forest Dale Elementary School (math 63% / reading 52%, grade C+, #168 of 994 statewide, top 17%, 652 students, 22% FRL); Carmel High School (math 77% / reading 90%, grade A, #3 of 369 statewide, top 1%, 5,192 students, 13% FRL).
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 4,661 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (1,528 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($91k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hamilton County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $272,417 (39.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.36%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 13.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $559,012
• List price: $449,900
• Delta: -19.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9634 Maple Dr	0.15mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,040 (0%)	7mo	$250,000	$123	83
9617 Lincoln Blvd	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,046 (+0%)	18mo	$345,000	$169	75
2526 Pleasant Way W	0.47mi	4/2.5	2,090 (+2%)	13mo	$385,000	$184	63
2108 Fahey Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,022 (-1%)	1mo	$415,000	$205	59
2072 Suda Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,932 (-5%)	5mo	$390,000	$202	53
9939 Estep Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,885 (-8%)	4mo	$457,900	$243	52
2399 E 98th St	0.29mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,313 (+13%)	18mo	$390,000	$169	44
9864 Northern Lights Ln	0.51mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,336 (+14%)	3mo	$655,000	$280	44
9870 Bucklebury Ln	0.49mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,272 (+11%)	13mo	$646,828	$285	42
9944 Holaday Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,816 (-11%)	13mo	$483,000	$266	40
2480 E 99th St	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,240 (+10%)	16mo	$350,000	$156	36
2506 Colony Ct	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,295 (+12%)	14mo	$372,000	$162	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-108,925
• Equity at exit: $67,082

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-141,792
• Equity at exit: $38,899

Cash invested: $125,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46280

• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 13.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,724 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,359
• Tax from tax record: −$168 /mo · $2,013/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$572
• Net cashflow: $-562

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,436

Max offer price $350,548

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-308	-5% $-435	+0% $-562	+5% $-690	+10% $-817
Rent	-10% $-778	-5% $-670	+0% $-562	+5% $-455	+10% $-347
Rate	-1.0pp $-336	-0.5pp $-448	base $-562	+0.5pp $-679	+1.0pp $-798

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,475
• Closing costs: $13,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1835 Edge Blvd Indianapolis, IN	3.0	2.5	840	$2,914	$3.47	3d	94	0.16mi
8720 Knickerbocker Way Indianapolis, IN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	984	$2,166	$2.20	18d	20	1.44mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-15
   listed $449,900 Active 1423-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,013 · $168/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,918 · $243/mo
• Expected delta: +$906/yr (+$75/mo · 45.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,690
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,201
• − Property taxes: −$2,013
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,615
• − Management: −$2,615
• − Depreciation: −$13,088
• Taxable loss: −$15,092
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,622
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,127/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carmel Clay Schools
• NCES district ID: 1801200
• Math proficiency: 68% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $102,347
• Composite: 63.54/100
• National rank: #608
• State rank: #1 of 301 in IN

Livability — Carmel

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #7
• US rank: #726

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carmel, IN
• County: Hamilton County · 337,479 people
• City population: 99,910
• Metro: Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN
• Population (ZIP): 7,514
• Household income: $91,152
• Rent vs Own: 38.2% rent · 61.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 388.0

Population outlook (Hamilton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,938 people
• By 2030: 417,496 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 486,684 · +27.4%
• By 2050: 549,805 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 687,078 · +79.9%
• By 2100: 754,495 · +97.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hamilton

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.1) · D 46.0% · R 52.1% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.2pp toward D · 2008: -22.2pp · 2024: -6.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.1 2020: R+6.8 2016: R+19.6 2012: R+34.3 2008: R+22.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -169.83%
• Current HPI: 244.8068
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Pending — MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-15 Listed $449,900 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,013 · -3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.