8368 E Carroll Rd · Fairplay, GA 30185

$99,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 856 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1962 4.08 ac lot $116/sqft · 18% below area Est $121k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This prime 4-acre property in Whitesburg offers an incredible opportunity for a custom estate or a strategic development project. Zoned R-A (Residential-Agricultural), the land features over 4 private, level acres that are ideally suited for a potential minor subdivision. Per preliminary county feedback, the lot can likely be split into two separate parcels of at least 1 acre each, a process that typically avoids the more complex requirements of larger developments. With recent new construction in the area commanding prices over $660,000, such as the sale at 8795 Saint Patricks Way, this property is a rare find for builders looking to capitalize on the high demand for luxury new builds. Whether you choose to renovate the existing home or pursue a two-lot split to maximize value, this expansive acreage provides the perfect canvas for your next project.

Key facts

• 4 acre property
• Two separate parcels
• Zoned r-a

Tags

• 4 ACRE PROPERTY
• ZONED R-A
• PRIVATE LEVEL ACRES
• POTENTIAL MINOR SUBDIVISION
• TWO SEPARATE PARCELS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $491 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 2.2% in Fairplay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade A — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Douglas County (suburban): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #92 of 174 in GA (top 53%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 595 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Douglas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $99k implies a 164% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.28%
• DSCR: 1.95
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $120,752
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -18.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8368 E Carroll Rd	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	856 (0%)	1mo	$99,000	$116	90

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.07×
• Total profit: $85,178
• Equity at exit: $89,187

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.6%
• Equity multiple: 9.16×
• Total profit: $226,133
• Equity at exit: $192,335

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30185

• Home prices YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,358 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$21 /mo · $251/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $491

Break-even live

Break-even rent $736

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $548	-5% $519	+0% $491	+5% $463	+10% $435
Rent	-10% $384	-5% $438	+0% $491	+5% $545	+10% $599
Rate	-1.0pp $541	-0.5pp $517	base $491	+0.5pp $466	+1.0pp $440

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 863-char remark

   Show marketing remark (863 chars)

   This prime 4-acre property in Whitesburg offers an incredible opportunity for a custom estate or a strategic development project. Zoned R-A (Residential-Agricultural), the land features over 4 private, level acres that are ideally suited for a potential minor subdivision. Per preliminary county feedback, the lot can likely be split into two separate parcels of at least 1 acre each, a process that typically avoids the more complex requirements of larger developments. With recent new construction in the area commanding prices over $660,000, such as the sale at 8795 Saint Patricks Way, this property is a rare find for builders looking to capitalize on the high demand for luxury new builds. Whether you choose to renovate the existing home or pursue a two-lot split to maximize value, this expansive acreage provides the perfect canvas for your next project.

2. 2026-05-01
   price $99,000 863-char remark

   Show marketing remark (863 chars)

   This prime 4-acre property in Whitesburg offers an incredible opportunity for a custom estate or a strategic development project. Zoned R-A (Residential-Agricultural), the land features over 4 private, level acres that are ideally suited for a potential minor subdivision. Per preliminary county feedback, the lot can likely be split into two separate parcels of at least 1 acre each, a process that typically avoids the more complex requirements of larger developments. With recent new construction in the area commanding prices over $660,000, such as the sale at 8795 Saint Patricks Way, this property is a rare find for builders looking to capitalize on the high demand for luxury new builds. Whether you choose to renovate the existing home or pursue a two-lot split to maximize value, this expansive acreage provides the perfect canvas for your next project.

3. 2026-03-31
   listed $185,000 Active 863-char remark

   Show marketing remark (863 chars)

   This prime 4-acre property in Whitesburg offers an incredible opportunity for a custom estate or a strategic development project. Zoned R-A (Residential-Agricultural), the land features over 4 private, level acres that are ideally suited for a potential minor subdivision. Per preliminary county feedback, the lot can likely be split into two separate parcels of at least 1 acre each, a process that typically avoids the more complex requirements of larger developments. With recent new construction in the area commanding prices over $660,000, such as the sale at 8795 Saint Patricks Way, this property is a rare find for builders looking to capitalize on the high demand for luxury new builds. Whether you choose to renovate the existing home or pursue a two-lot split to maximize value, this expansive acreage provides the perfect canvas for your next project.

4. 1991-09-09
   soldstatus $37,500
5. 1986-03-01
   soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $251 · $21/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $911 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$660/yr (+$55/mo · 263.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,296
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$251
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,304
• − Management: −$1,304
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $4,517
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,084
• After-tax cash flow: $4,814/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Douglas County
• NCES district ID: 1301860
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $55,335
• Composite: 25.84/100
• National rank: #7353
• State rank: #92 of 174 in GA

Livability — Fairplay

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,152

Population outlook (Douglas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 163,022 people
• By 2030: 173,956 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 196,859 · +20.8%
• By 2050: 220,017 · +35.0%
• By 2075: 279,831 · +71.7%
• By 2100: 322,702 · +97.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 6% Two or more races 2% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Douglas

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+31.4) · D 65.4% · R 33.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +29.6pp toward D · 2008: 1.8pp · 2024: 31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+31.4 2020: D+25.1 2016: D+10.8 2012: D+4.0 2008: D+1.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 23.02%
• Current HPI: 351.2046
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+230.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — FMLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $99,000 FMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $185,000 FMLS
• 1991-09-09 Sold (Public Records) $37,500 Public Records
• 1986-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $251 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.