5240 Cinnamon Ln · Princeton, TX 75407

$213,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,266 sqft · SingleFamily · 64 Days on market

Built 2025 Poor condition 4,400 sqft lot Est $189k · 13% over $60/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• ARV discount +1.4/15.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

LENNAR - Acorn South- Oakridge Floorplan Prices, dimensions and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• 4,400 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $214k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $173 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $214k).
• Recommended offer: $201k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.5% in Princeton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#969 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mayfield El (609 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 56% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1409 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($201k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,159 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.46%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $188,634
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5240 Cinnamon Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,266 (0%)	1mo	$213,999	$169	99
414 Bower Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+11%)	7mo	$201,424	$144	76
416 Bower Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+12%)	7mo	$210,824	$149	75

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-29,958
• Equity at exit: $31,908

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-36,178
• Equity at exit: $18,503

Cash invested: $59,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75407

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1409
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,167 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,122
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$267 /mo · $3,210/yr
• Insurance: −$89
• HOA: −$60
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $173

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,948

Max offer price $213,999

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $321	-5% $247	+0% $173	+5% $99	+10% $25
Rent	-10% $2	-5% $87	+0% $173	+5% $258	+10% $344
Rate	-1.0pp $280	-0.5pp $227	base $173	+0.5pp $117	+1.0pp $61

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,500
• Closing costs: $6,420
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7008 Vining DR Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	1510	$2,500	$1.66	45d	1	0.03mi
649 Saxony Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1674	$2,100	$1.25	14d	1	0.79mi
649 Saxony Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1674	$2,100	$1.25	0d	1	0.79mi
622 Saxony Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1567	$2,000	$1.28	45d	1	0.82mi
149 Princeton Xrds Princeton, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	980	$1,889	$1.93	0d	22	0.88mi
353 Princewood Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1753	$1,950	$1.11	45d	1	0.94mi
461 Princewood Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1749	$1,750	$1.00	25d	1	0.94mi
264 Moonstone Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1803	$1,795	$1.00	16d	1	1.05mi
291 Wandering Stream Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1803	$1,875	$1.04	45d	1	1.06mi
1823 Dahlia Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1803	$1,950	$1.08	8d	1	1.08mi
219 Golden Sands Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$1,795	$1.00	18d	1	1.10mi
281 Moonstone Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1803	$1,895	$1.05	14d	1	1.12mi
280 Moonstone Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$1,900	$1.06	6d	1	1.13mi
1917 Lilac Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,045	$1.11	45d	1	1.13mi
304 Wandering Stream Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1803	$1,875	$1.04	45d	1	1.14mi
263 Honeysuckle Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$1,850	$1.03	45d	1	1.14mi
1911 Lilac Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1811	$1,900	$1.05	0d	1	1.15mi
250 N Boorman Ln Princeton, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$4,619	$4.93	0d	1	1.16mi
306 Golden Sands Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1811	$1,995	$1.10	45d	1	1.20mi
605 Grenada Lake Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1563	$1,925	$1.23	16d	1	1.23mi
1707 Cotton Blossom Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1811	$2,095	$1.16	6d	1	1.23mi
313 Sweet Pea Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1802	$1,900	$1.05	4d	1	1.26mi
305 Turquoise Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1811	$1,850	$1.02	14d	1	1.28mi
882 Breakwater Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1824	$2,250	$1.23	23d	1	1.29mi
200 Cole St Princeton, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	960	$1,799	$1.87	45d	23	1.29mi
200 Cole St Princeton, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	838	$1,263	$1.51	0d	8	1.29mi
846 Breakwater Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1824	$2,000	$1.10	0d	1	1.29mi
846 Breakwater Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1824	$2,000	$1.10	4d	1	1.29mi
1712 Sandalwood Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1803	$1,795	$1.00	25d	1	1.32mi
1525 Farm to Market Road 982 Princeton, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1551	$2,332	$1.50	0d	53	1.34mi
899 E Hazelwood St Princeton, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	989	$1,780	$1.80	0d	13	1.35mi
865 Table Rock St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1563	$2,050	$1.31	23d	1	1.36mi
803 Table Rock St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1683	$1,850	$1.10	45d	1	1.38mi
843 Ozark Path Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1249	$2,100	$1.68	45d	1	1.42mi
366 Lake Erie Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1824	$1,990	$1.09	25d	1	1.47mi
315 Stone Ct Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1573	$2,100	$1.34	45d	1	1.48mi
229 Marsh Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1550	$1,650	$1.06	25d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $60 · $720/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-11
   price $213,999
3. 2026-03-04
   price $215,999
4. 2026-02-07
   listed $222,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,999
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,987
• − Property taxes: −$3,210
• − Insurance: −$1,070
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,080
• − Management: −$2,080
• − HOA: −$720
• − Depreciation: −$6,225
• Taxable loss: −$1,374
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$330
• After-tax cash flow: $2,402/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

The home requires extensive repairs and updates to its exterior, landscaping, and interior systems to improve its condition and value. Significant investment is needed to bring the property up to a marketable standard.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Faded and weathered appearance
• Major landscaping — Sparse and unkempt appearance

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can significantly improve curb appeal and home value.
• Rental landscape and mulch — Well-maintained landscaping can attract renters and increase rental value.
• Both repair and paint interior walls — Fresh paint and repairs can improve the home's condition and attract both buyers and renters.
• Both replace HVAC and mechanical systems — Modern, efficient systems can reduce utility costs and improve comfort, appealing to buyers and renters.
• Both repair and update bathrooms — Modern, functional bathrooms are essential for both buyers and renters, and can significantly impact home value.
• Both repair and update kitchen — A modern, functional kitchen is a key selling point for both buyers and renters, and can significantly impact home value.
• Both repair and update roof — A new roof can improve the home's condition and reduce maintenance costs, appealing to both buyers and renters.
• Both repair and update foundation/structure — A solid foundation and structure are essential for both buyers and renters, and can significantly impact home value.
• Both repair and update windows — Modern, energy-efficient windows can improve the home's condition and reduce utility costs, appealing to both buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Faded and weathered appearance	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Sparse and unkempt appearance	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can significantly improve curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Rental landscape and mulch — Well-maintained landscaping can attract renters and increase rental value. ↑
• Both repair and paint interior walls — Fresh paint and repairs can improve the home's condition and attract both buyers and renters. ↑
• Both replace HVAC and mechanical systems — Modern, efficient systems can reduce utility costs and improve comfort, appealing to buyers and renters. ↑
• Both repair and update bathrooms — Modern, functional bathrooms are essential for both buyers and renters, and can significantly impact home value. ↑
• Both repair and update kitchen — A modern, functional kitchen is a key selling point for both buyers and renters, and can significantly impact home value. ↑
• Both repair and update roof — A new roof can improve the home's condition and reduce maintenance costs, appealing to both buyers and renters. ↑
• Both repair and update foundation/structure — A solid foundation and structure are essential for both buyers and renters, and can significantly impact home value. ↑
• Both repair and update windows — Modern, energy-efficient windows can improve the home's condition and reduce utility costs, appealing to both buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Princeton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,827
• Composite: 42.44/100
• National rank: #3226
• State rank: #188 of 826 in TX

Livability — Princeton

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #969
• US rank: #17215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 34,171
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,171
• Household income: $100,037
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 368.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 17% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Mexico
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.99%
• Current HPI: 238.9373
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-12 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $213,999 NTREIS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $215,999 NTREIS
• 2026-02-07 Listed $222,999 NTREIS